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22. October 2021
Britain: The first wave of higher energy prices hit the shore in September. The second wave hit in October, according to the latest GfK consumer confidence survey
21. October 2021
USA: Philadelphia Fed survey shows 'moderate' short-term demand, but also that shortages and higher prices will hit activity soon
Britain: Factory gates inflation pressure is now at the highest since the 'Second Oil Crisis' in 1979 - and winter has not even arrived
The service sector propels business sentiment higher, as France sees tailwinds from a successful vaccination strategy and by not replicating Berlin's energy policy
Podcast interview with think tank Europa: Is there a risk that the energy crisis derails the European Union's green transition?
20. October 2021
The Germans are losing the remaining confidence in a European Central Bank, which has completely lost touch with reality on the ground
China: The 'official' decline in the housing market has started. Beijing discusses again the introduction of a national property tax
19. October 2021
President Erdogan against the rest of Turkey
18. October 2021
USA: The manufacturing sector comes to a standstill caused by bottlenecks in the global supply chain
China's economic growth slows as Beijing can no longer ignore a high number of headwinds, which have properties of being 'secular'
Global macroeconomic presentation: Inflation, energy prices, China and the next coalition in Germany
14. October 2021
There will be no updates on Friday, October 15
USA: Slightly softer headline and core PPI inflation in September, but core intermediate materials inflation hits the highest level since the mid-1970s
China: Factory gates inflation hits the highest level since 1995. Many factories are forced to shut down production without any notice
13. October 2021
USA: Today's consumer price report shows no signs of transitory inflation. A tight labour market boosts the risk of 'second-round inflation'
China trade report: Is the economy slowing as dramatically as outlined by the foreign media? No, Insightview's sources argue
12. October 2021
USA: NFIB small business survey shows soaring inflation pressure - 'Inflation is running strong but the Federal Reserve is only running away'
Germany: Investor sentiment takes a 'short-term' beating in October. Several headwinds are slowly emerging
Podcast interview: The 'collapse' of the global supply chains and logistics. 'On the ground' insights from China. Decoupling or recoupling?
11. October 2021
Italy: The economy is exposed to tailwinds from a successful vaccination process and Prime Minister Draghi's ability to get financial support from Brussels
8. October 2021
USA: The September employment report shows more evidence of an economy short of nearly everything - also common sense at the Federal Reserve
Podcast interview with Stig Thoegersen, China expert: Is Beijing's policy of common prosperity just a policy tool to retain power?
7. October 2021
Britain: House prices jump at the fastest rate since 2007. Central banks fighting the wrong war could soon be forced to shock the financial market
Germany: Industrial production plunges to the lowest level since September 2020. The EU is now Moscow's hostage - if anyone did not know already
6. October 2021
USA: ADP Employment Report shows strong jobs growth in a very tight labour market
Germany: Industrial orders plunge as supply chain chaos turns ugly. It will get worse as European policymakers have learned nothing from the 'invasion of Russia'
5. October 2021
USA: Service sector sentiment remains buoyant, but inflation pressure regains momentum
No signs of slower Euro-zone factory gates inflation. China shipping expert: 'Get used to elevated container freight rates out of China'
4. October 2021
The peculiar policy response of central banks and politicians to external shocks moved one step too far: The 'reckoning' approaches as the penny will soon drop at central banks
1. October 2021
USA: ISM manufacturing index improves at the same time as inflation at the factory gates regains momentum
Euro-zone inflation jumps in September - but the trend of elevated inflation has just started. IG Metall boss calls for a 'decent increase instead of real wage losses'
Sweden: PMI survey still shows a 'buoyant' economy, but inflation pressure jumps. Lagarde warns against 'overreacting' although the ECB has not yet reacted
Japan's Tankan survey shows improvement. Nonetheless, this is history as the aftermath of Western 'Covid stimulus measures' has hit the shore
30. September 2021
Podcast interview with Ole Hansen, commodity market expert: Is the rally in commodity prices really transitory - or is the world headed for a new super-cycle?
China: The manufacturing sector facing logistics bottlenecks, Covid and energy outages plunges into the contraction zone
29. September 2021
EU Commission's business and consumer survey: No signs of dark clouds on the horizon - so far - but inflation pressure soars
Germany: The 'perfect storm' will create significantly higher inflation - and the risk of derailing the 'climate change agenda' in Europe. The credibility of European policymakers is at risk
28. September 2021
US Conference Board consumer survey: The boomerang created by a very expensive recovery after the pandemic is coming back with a vengeance
China: Corporate profit under pressure as centrally-committed green emission targets, post-Covid-related high demand and supply constraints create heavy headwinds. Energy blackouts on the rise - Insightview sources
Germany: The Green Party and the FDP are now negotiating directly at the same time as Berlin's energy policy is on the edge of collapsing
27. September 2021
Updated Bundestag election: The Green Party turning left and FDP's Christian Lindner saying in 2017 'it is better not to govern than to govern badly' spell trouble for upcoming coalition negotiations
24. September 2021
The possible outcome of the Bundestag election: Only two viable coalitions out of five possible
Germany's IFO survey: The 'collapse' of the global supply chain hits manufacturing and retailer sentiment
Britain Gfk Consumer survey: Soaring energy prices, Brexit and tax hike plan overshadow tailwinds from a tight labour market
23. September 2021
Western central banks will be forced to raise the white flag - but this will come too late to prevent a hard landing because the bottlenecks remain. Norway raises policy rates
France: In relative comparison, the economy is in a better position than most European countries. Moreover, the main energy source is nuclear power
22. September 2021
USA: The classic indicators show signs of a 'late-cycle economy' caused by capacity constraints
21. September 2021
Beijing's response to the long-overdue Evergrande crisis will reflect 'common prosperity' and President Xi Jinping's willingness to take risks - but Beijing aims for a 'controlled unwinding'
20. September 2021
Germany: Factory gates inflation skyrockets to a new record high. More in the pipeline as the impact of Merkel's 'energy policy' hits the shore
The email-server problem has been solved
17. September 2021
USA: UoM survey shows surprisingly downbeat consumer sentiment as households' inflation expectations continue higher
The risk of a hard landing in the global economy is on the rise due to central bankers who are experts in 'fighting fires they set alight themselves'
16. September 2021
USA: Retail sales jump sharply in August despite falling consumer confidence. Philadelphia Fed survey shows the first profound late-cycle signs 'after' Covid
A short note on why the US-UK-Australia security pact is one more step towards decoupling between China and the rest of the world. 'Containment'
Japan: The economy is not much better than the rest of the world makes it. Supply chain problems hit exports and manufacturing sentiment
Recommendation: Take short-term profit in 'short 30-year German Bund future' strategy
15. September 2021
USA: Manufacturing output data show only a slow increase in the supply side, while the Empire State survey shows strong demand
British inflation data shows signs of 'delayed price pressure'. Soaring electricity and heating prices will make the inflation picture even worse in Q4
China: Weak economic data will soon test Beijing's skills more profoundly. Evergrande 'default' will not go away. New virus outbreak in Fujian
14. September 2021
USA: Core consumer price inflation slows in August, but price pressure will stay high in the coming months
Britain: The number of unfilled job vacancies exceeding one million leaves few other options than launching monetary tightening sooner rather than later
No signs of falling inflation pressure. Electricity and gas prices are skyrocketing. ECB and Federal Reserve could be forced to respond faster at the same time as China's debt crisis gets worse
13. September 2021
Turkey: The economy faces headwinds as stimulus measures are running out of steam
SPD's Olaf Scholz is not the solution. Merkel departure will release conflicting political forces in Germany and the rest of Europe. WPI inflation at the highest level since 1974
10. September 2021
USA: Producer price inflation hits a new record high even though wage inflation has just started
China: Beijing's policy U-turn is not yet visible in monetary statistics. ‌The latest on President Xi's 'reform' process
Spain: The economic recovery remains strong despite weaker-than-expected industrial output data in July. Madrid turns left as the rest of Europe
9. September 2021
China: Factory gates inflation gains momentum, but a 'radical' political shift poses a much larger risk
The mismatch between the supply and the demand sides worsens in the labour market. Sell the US stock market
8. September 2021
The yield curve and 'tapering'
7. September 2021
Germany: ZEW survey shows the economy hitting a huge roadblock as the ECB scores own goal
China: August trade report makes a positive surprise, but the economy faces headwinds. Internal power struggle in Beijing?
6. September 2021
Germany: 'Big items' boost industrial orders in July. Bottlenecks create roadblocks for economic activity
China: The Second Cultural Revolution?
USA and Europe: The worst central banks since Arthur Burns in the 1970s create stagflation
1. September 2021
Vacation: There will be no updates from August 23 to September 3, 2021
24. August 2021
Podcast interview with Camilla Noerup Soerensen: China enters the graveyard of empires, Afghanistan. What are the ramifications?
20. August 2021
Germany: Factory inflation, sponsored by irresponsible Western central banks and fiscal policymakers, is skyrocketing at the fastest annual rate since the 1970s
19. August 2021
USA: Philadelphia Fed survey shows more signs of stagflation. The Delta variant creating more supply chain havoc in China will maintain high inflation pressure in the US
Japan: Business sentiment jumps across the board despite soaring Covid cases and global supply chain challenges
A short note on the consequences of Beijing becoming 'socialist', this time, with 'real socialist characteristics'
USA: Tapering combined with a recovery in inflation and real growth rapidly reduces excess liquidity to the disadvantage of asset prices
18. August 2021
The global bottlenecks will not go away because the Delta variant will aggravate the mismatch between the supply and demand sides. The US Federal Reserve will soon have to make a difference
17. August 2021
USA: The July retail sales report disappoints, but it is difficult to say whether this is caused by higher inflation, Covid or a shortage of supply
Britain: The labour market recovers strongly. The share of companies 'planning to hire' and 'unfilled vacancies' jump to the highest level on record
16. August 2021
China: The economy is losing momentum. Beijing pursues a strategy of 'targeted tightening and universal easing'
USA: Consumer sentiment takes a beating due to soaring Covid cases and self-inflicted headwinds in the form of rising inflation
13. August 2021
Germany: The next Bundestag could turn out to be the most unruly parliament since the Weimar Republic
12. August 2021
USA: 'Transitory' producer price inflation continues gaining momentum for longer, as the Federal Reserve considers how to make a U-turn without losing face
Euro-zone: Man-made bottlenecks in the global supply chain puts a lid on manufacturing output
11. August 2021
US inflation report provides relief, but too much demand hunting too few goods will keep inflation at an elevated level beyond 'transitory'
A divorce between monetary and fiscal policymakers seems inevitable. Soon, central banks are forced to call a spade a spade
Sell the German 30-year government bond future
10. August 2021
USA: Small business survey shows tentative signs of stagflation. The Federal Reserve still faces a tiny window of opportunity, but it is closing rapidly
Germany: ZEW economic sentiment index falls sharply in August, as the side-effects of aggressive monetary and fiscal easing hit the shores
Australia: Business sentiment plunges, as Australia gives lessons to Europe and US on what to expect if we do not get it right over the coming winter
USA: JOLTS report underscores dissent at the Federal Reserve. The missing link between aggressive stimulus measures and 'climate change.'
9. August 2021
Podcast interview with Casper Wichmann, China expert: Who is next in Beijing's crackdown on the corporate sector?
China: Benign inflation 'sponsored' by falling pork prices opens a window of opportunity for more monetary easing - but this is a delicate balancing act due to soaring factory gates inflation
6. August 2021
USA: A strong labour market report will be followed by an even stronger report in August and September adding upward pressure on wages