15. April 2021
USA: Retail sales propel higher at the fastest pace ever recorded, as fiscal and monetary policymakers fuel rather than put a lid on growth
USA: The cyclical indicator in the Philadelphia Fed survey jumped to the highest since 1992, as the economy sees no headwinds from policymakers
14. April 2021
Recommendation: Take profit in 'short 30-year Bund futures' strategy and re-enter 'short 30-year US government bond future' strategy
USA: 'Temporary inflation' or real inflation? What if the Federal Reserve suddenly gets second thoughts about fully financing the White House's fiscal expansion?
Australia: Consumer sentiment index skyrockets to the highest since 2010 despite the failure of Canberra's vaccination strategy. Soaring commodity prices are the biggest tailwind to the AUD
13. April 2021
USA: Consumer price inflation jumps to the highest since 2018, although the acceleration in global growth has only just started. Lumber prices hit a new record high
Germany: ZEW survey shows investor sentiment at an elevated level. Berlin is headed towards political turbulence in the coming months and years
China trade report: Exporters continue to benefit from the rest of the world bouncing back, but material costs are propelling higher
Australia benefits strongly as Washington 'just keeps giving'. All global growth engines are gaining momentum. Chinese imports from Australia hits a new all-time high
Podcast interview with Anne Sofie Schoett from the Royal Danish Defence College: What is President Erdogan's plan for Turkey?
12. April 2021
China: Ironically, the Federal Reserve could soon force Beijing to follow an unwanted path of 'Japanification'
China-USA-Asia: Increasing tensions have turned the East and the South China Sea into a powder keg
9. April 2021
USA: Producer prices jump much faster than market expectations. More is, of course, in the pipeline, as fiscal policymakers have created chaos in the global supply chain. Intermediate goods prices jump by 10% year-on-year
France: A steep decline in manufacturing output underscores President Macron's uphill struggle to get reelected in 2022. Marine Le Pen is exposed to multiple tailwinds, but fiscal expansion could change the situation
China: Producer price inflation jumps to the highest since July 2018. An accident waiting to happen in the South China Sea poses a significant future threat to the global supply chain
8. April 2021
TECHNICAL ISSUES with REFINITIV's financial data delay today's articles from Insightview
USA: Weekly jobless claims report is in line with significant labour market improvement. The economy could turn 'late-cycle' faster than expected
Japan: Household sentiment improves only slowly. The biggest threat is a rapid deterioration of the security situation in the East and the South China Sea, as Beijing moves fast to enforce its territorial claims
Germany: Industrial orders boosted by a strong rebound in domestic and Euro-zone orders for capital goods. Export orders to propel much higher in the coming months
7. April 2021
USA February trade deficit is on the rise: 'Customers assessing inventories to be too low' herald a steep increase in imports in 2021
The latest Covid19 status: 'Winners' and 'losers' - so far
6. April 2021
Spain: February tourist arrivals are 90% lower than one year ago. Only a question of 'when' Brussels will have to initiate more aggressive fiscal stimulus measures
USA: ISM service index skyrockets to a new all-time high. Inflation headed towards the range of at 'least 4% and 5%'
China: Caixin PMI service index jumps in March, as the mainland economy gains momentum. Beijing raises tensions with Japan, USA, Australia and 'neighbours' more than one thousand kilometres from the mainland
USA: The ISM manufacturing sentiment index jumps to the highest since 1983 as fiscal stimulus measures just keep coming
30. March 2021
There will be no updates on March 31, April 1,2 and 5
Podcast interview with The Economist's Berlin bureau chief, Tom Nuttall, about Germany's domestic and foreign policy when Angela Merkel steps down. How will politics change with the Green Party as part of the next government? The relationship to China?
EU Commission survey: Euro-zone business sentiment improves significantly. Companies' inflation expectations jump to the highest since 2011
Germany: Imported inflation jumps in February. The 'reservoir' of potential inflation is underestimated as fiscal stimulus measures and accumulated household savings will maintain bottlenecks in the global supply chain. Next stop: higher service inflation?
29. March 2021
The US and EU confronting China pose a risk to the supply side at the same time as the US personal savings rate hits the highest since the 1960s. US personal income jumps at the fastest rate since 1989
A short follow-up note to the IFO survey: Export expectations skyrocket to the highest since 2011, according to details released today
26. March 2021
Germany: The IFO survey shows a sharp improvement in the expectations index across the board - Replace 'short US 30-year T-bond future' with 'short 30-year Bund future'
25. March 2021
Germany: GfK consumer survey shows improvement shortly before a new lockdown and the subsequent U-turn. The CDU sees a plunge in support to the lowest level since 2000
France: Service sentiment jumps but shortly before a new Covid19-related lockdown. Inflation pressure propels higher. Paris and President Macron will soon need more aggressive fiscal stimulus measures
24. March 2021
USA: Weak durable goods orders. The biggest obstacles to the economy are supply and capacity – and the rebound has not even started
23. March 2021
USA: New home sales plunge as soaring material costs and low supply put a drag on housing activity
Britain: Industrial optimism skyrockets in March. The same applies to inflation expectations
The conflict between China and the rest of the world. What 'we do not know' and what 'the Chinese think they know' pose a significant risk to the financial market. A game changer?
Insightview recommends taking short-term profits in the 'short US 30-year bond future' strategy
22. March 2021
USA: Buoyant house prices are a function of monetary policy in the second half of 2020. Higher bond yields will create headwinds in 2022 and beyond
Taiwanese export order statistics show the steepest increase in European demand on record. China sees a sharp increase in FDI to a new record high
A brief note on Turkey: The 'master of value destruction' strikes again. Is Erdogan creating room to become the next 'core leader'?
19. March 2021
Turkey is forced to raise key policy rates again, as the real problem does not disappear unless he is forced to do so
China: Fiscal revenue statistics show a 'solid' economic rebound but no signs yet of a 2010-like recovery
Britain: Consumer confidence skyrockets in March, as there is more light at the end of the tunnel. Nonetheless, more stimulus measures will be needed in the second half of 2021
18. March 2021
US bond market sell-off: The upcoming bond supply and negative real yield have taken over from inflation expectations as the main driver
USA: The regional Philadelphia Fed headline index propels to a new all-time high. Inflation expectations skyrocket to a record high
Australia: The strong economic recovery raises the question of whether monetary policy is too loose
17. March 2021
USA: Housing starts and permits plunge in February due to supply shortage and soaring material costs
Japan: Reuters Tankan survey shows further improvement in manufacturing and service sentiment. More to come sponsored by the Biden-administration
16. March 2021
USA: Retail sales fell sharply in February but after a significantly up-revised January number. The second and third quarter will show strong growth
Germany: Investor sentiment improves, but inflation expectations jump close to the highest since 1999. Europe could soon be forced to follow the same fiscal strategy as the White House
15. March 2021
USA: Empire State survey shows no signs of slower inflation pressure. The price index skyrockets to the highest since May 2011. Supply rather than inflation is now the driving force behind higher bond yields
Germany turns 'greener' but the political outlook becomes gloomier, as the failure of the old parties creates a political vacuum
China: Strong economic statistics and Washington acting again as a 'global engine' keep Beijing on a hawkish path. The risk of global liquidity tightening is on the rise
13. March 2021
By Invitation: China's annual NPC meeting in the shadows of the Communist Party's 100th anniversary
Podcast interview with three China experts about the just-ended NPC Two Sessions meeting in Beijing. China-EU investment deal at risk? Taiwan next in line with the 'reunification' plan? China backpedalling on carbon emission?
12. March 2021
USA: Producer price inflation is on the rise. Watch out for the 'mother of all liquidity tightening' caused by the rebound. The real driver for higher bond yields is 'normalisation'
Spain: The economy will recover in Q2 and Q3, but 2021 could prove to be yet another lost year, as the vaccination process is too slow to save the tourist season. Financial support from Brussels needed in the second half of 2021
Britain: The economy did better than expected in January, but trade activity with the EU plunged as Brexit creates red tape problems
11. March 2021
USA: The federal deficit hits a new record high in February on the same day that the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan Act was passed
10. March 2021
USA: Tame inflation in February. Supply chain inflation is expected to feed into consumer prices in Q2 and Q3
France: Industrial output jumps in January, but the economic rebound will be fragile. Soon, Paris will ask for more fiscal stimulus measures...from Brussels, of course
China: Inflation at the factory gates is picking up. Unnoticed message from the Two Sessions should cause concern in Taiwan after the 'Hong Kong problem' has been 'solved'
9. March 2021
USA: NFIB small business survey shows soaring inflation expectations and 'skilled labour shortage at the highest since 1975
Germany: A strong January trade report does not disguise the long-term challenges of exporters. This requires political leadership, but the political vacuum will soon grow larger
Australia: Business confidence jumps to the highest since early 2010. Soaring capacity utilisation will prompt capacity expansion in Q3
8. March 2021
US growth forecast revised up to 7.2% in 2021 as the $1.9 trillion stimulus package seems now to be a given outcome. More upside to bond yields
Germany's manufacturing sector is headed towards a sharp rebound despite weak January data, but Berlin has failed big time during the second Covid19 wave. Yield-spread widening adds downward pressure on the euro
China: The trade surplus skyrockets to a new record-high, as the US and European 'economic mitigation strategy' creates a never-ending tailwind
5. March 2021
USA: The February labour market report shows a strong increase in employment. In Q2, hiring will accelerate
Germany: Industrial orders increased in January, but more to come as exporters will benefit from 'classic' US fiscal stimulus measures
A short note on Fed Chairman Powell's 'temporary inflation speech': Get used to the 'crowding out effect'
4. March 2021
Euro-zone: Retail sales plunge in January. Accelerating headline inflation could embitter households' joy later in the recovery process
Japan: The recovery in consumer sentiment is painfully slow, but the stock market rides the fiscal stimulus wave sponsored by Washington
3. March 2021
THERE WILL BE NO UPDATES AFTER 10 AM ON MARCH 3
US service ISM survey: The economic mitigation strategy hits activity, and propels inflation pressure to the highest since 2008
Australia: The economy bounced back strongly in Q4. Canberra is determined to begin withdrawing fiscal stimulus measures
Podcast interview: How can you get to visit China? Insightview has talked with a Danish businessman who was determined enough to 'climb the Chinese wall'
2. March 2021
Euro-zone inflation remains benign shortly before 'summer is coming' and the vaccination process gains momentum
Germany: A weak January retail sales report is a symbolic reflection of Berlin's poor performance during the second Covid19-wave
1. March 2021
USA: Manufacturing ISM index jumps to the highest since February 2018. Inflation pressure hits the highest since 2008
Turkey: The economy was among the star performers in 2020. The share of vaccinated people hits 8%
China: The headline indexes in the PMI surveys fell again in February. The PMI export index dropped back into the contraction zone
26. February 2021
USA: Personal income increasing by a strong 10% month-on-month in January propelled household savings to 20.5%. More ammo at the end of the tunnel
The Swedish economy was among the 'star performers' in 2020. The economy is well-positioned to benefit from a global rebound in 2021
What are the main factors behind the bond market sell-off in the last few weeks? Keep the focus on JGBs as the US yield curve steepens
25. February 2021
USA: Durable goods orders gain momentum. More in the pipeline, as long as fiscal stimulus measures do not create crowding-out
EU Commission survey: Euro-zone sentiment recovery is still painfully slow. Industrialists' inflation expectations jump in February
Germany: Consumer sentiment improves, but GfK survey shows that the vaccination process, the reopening process and politics are in disarray
24. February 2021
USA: A strong leading new home sales report shows clear evidence of an economy exposed to 'excessive' stimulus measures. More house price inflation in the pipeline despite higher bond yields
Taiwan: Skyrocketing export orders show clear signs of a broadening global growth acceleration - or more precisely, 'demand acceleration'. No evidence of softening price pressure
France: Manufacturing sentiment improves, but service sentiment drops. Inflation pressure jumps to the highest level since July 2011. More imported inflation in the pipeline
23. February 2021
USA: Consumer confidence improves - and households' inflation expectations increase
A short note on the US bond market sell-off. What comes next?
China: House prices accelerate despite curbs imposed by local authorities, as inventories of unsold homes decline
22. February 2021
Germany: Business sentiment jumps as 'summer is coming' and the vaccination process gains momentum. Inflation pressure in the US adds pressure on the European bond market
19. February 2021
USA: The housing market remains buoyant as policymakers pursue a dangerous strategy of 'let us see what happens'
Britain: The yo-yo pandemic triggers a steep decline in retail sales in January. The fiscal deficit jumps. Business and consumer sentiment increases only slowly in February
Germany: Producer prices jump in January. A much larger increase is in the pipeline in 2021. Is inflation really a problem in Europe?
