26. January 2022
USA: New home sales bounce back after a weak last quarter of 2021, but the report still heralds significantly slower GDP growth by late 2022
France: Inflation continues to exceed households' expectations, as 'transitory' is now replaced by 'pent-up' price increases
25. January 2022
USA: Households are becoming downbeat about the future, as inflation expectations stay at an elevated level
USA: Philadelphia Fed's service survey shows price pressure hitting an all-time high - and a steep decline in the growth indicators
Britain: Inflation pressure jumps to the highest level since 1977. Transitory? No, and the Bank of England will, therefore, act decisively
Germany: IFO sentiment bounces back, but the 'implied' growth outlook remains weak
21. January 2022
Europe is exposed to long-term, not transitory, problems. The solution is not an election-winner
Britain: Consumer confidence drops as several 'boomerangs of policy mistakes' are now coming back with a vengeance. Fiscal policy replacing monetary policy will price credit according to market risks
20. January 2022
USA: The Philadelphia Fed survey continues to show strong inflation pressure
France: Service sector business sentiment drops in December, as the country is exposed to yet another Covid wave - but manufacturing sentiment jumps
Germany's PPI report shows neither signs of 'transitory' nor a 'base effect'. The ECB is short of good excuses
19. January 2022
Britain: Inflation jumps to the highest level in 30 years. Energy capacity constraints require higher policy rates and real bond yields - and not vice versa
18. January 2022
USA: The Empire State survey continues to show strong inflation pressure
Fiscal policy taking over the role of monetary policy will price the cost of credit according to market risks. The 'green transition' will require high private savings
Britain: Soaring unfilled vacancies will lead to a significantly lower unemployment rate - and faster monetary tightening
17. January 2022
China: The economy ended 2021 on a weak note caused by a very weak property market. PBOC cuts borrowing costs
15. January 2022
Podcast interview with Morten Springborg, C Worldwide Asset Management: Europe's green transition will create several energy crises in the coming years
14. January 2022
USA: Household sentiment remains depressed despite the strongest labour market for decades. Consumers' one and five-year inflation expectations increase again
The Outlook 2022 presentation is now available
China: The export sector was the growth engine in 2021. This will not be enough in 2022 due to omicron and significantly tighter monetary conditions in the United States and Europe
13. January 2022
USA: The next leg in the inflation story will come from wage pressure and service inflation
12. January 2022
USA: Consumer price inflation hits the highest level since June 1982. Getting inflation expectations back into the bottle requires aggressive monetary tightening
China: Beijing is in monetary 'stimulus mode', but this will turn out to be a slow process
China: Slow domestic demand, regulatory measures and falling pork prices put a lid on inflation in December. Has omicron made a hole in the zero-tolerance wall?
11. January 2022
Brazil: Inflation seems to have peaked, but a prudent central bank will hike policy rates again in February
USA: Small business sentiment survey shows wage inflation acceleration. The case for a first-rate-hike of 0.5% is on the rise
Japan: A weak recovery and low inflation. Tokyo used all ammo in the last two decades
7. January 2022
USA: The jobless rate dropping below the 'natural rate of unemployment' makes it difficult to fill job offers. Instead, this creates wage inflation
Euro-zone: Inflation continues higher as the underlying problems will not go away in 2022. A reluctant ECB president Lagarde 'beyond the reach of rational argument' will be forced to tighten
6. January 2022
USA: Service sentiment drops from an all-time low, but service price inflation stays at the highest level since 2005
US Federal Reserve Minutes report shows that the central bank has lost its way. Policymakers move from 'the first rate hike in 2024' to 'monetary tightening coming sooner rather than later'
Germany: Industrial orders bounced back in November but headwinds gain momentum. Russia, omicron, and faster-than-expected Federal Reserve tightening
5. January 2022
USA: JOLTS survey shows a sharp jump in the quit rate, which will lead to strong wage gains in the first half of 2022
France: Consumers are in a much better position than in neighbouring Germany, so far, but a huge public sector debt could become an issue after the upcoming election
4. January 2022
USA: ISM manufacturing index declines in December - and inflation pressure declines as the anatomy of inflation changes
Germany: Unfilled vacancies hit a new all-time high in December as cost pressure increases
China: Manufacturing sentiment bounces back. Omicron gaining a foothold could turn into a game-changer as the mainland is 'unprotected'
3. January 2022
The European cocktail: Higher inventories and falling purchasing power will be disinflationary in Q2 - but does not prevent monetary tightening
Turkey: The Erdoganomics hurricane continues to devastate the economy. Inflation moves into the hyperinflation zone
The second inflation wave: Delayed pent-up price increases will trigger profound monetary tightening - and, consequently, slightly lower inflation in the second half of 2022
21. December 2021
The last day of updates is on December 21. Insightview will be back on January 3
Germany: Consumer sentiment plunges as households face multiple headwinds. Will Christian Lindner opting for Nagel instead of Scnabel as the next President of the Bundesbank make a difference?
20. December 2021
Britain: Factory gates inflation showing no signs of slowing hits industrial output. Natural gas prices soar to a new all-time high
Podcast interview with Peter Viggo Jakobsen from the Royal Defence College: Geopolitical risks in 2022
17. December 2021
Germany: The economy moves deeper into a downswing, as public opinion turns against the ECB. Soon, the penny will even drop for ECB's Lagarde
16. December 2021
USA: Philadelphia Fed survey details show signs of 'demand destruction'. Short and long-term demand indicators fall sharply in December
France: Service sentiment takes a beating. President Macron is no longer a front-runner in next year's elections
USA: The Federal Reserve is still just talking. Mr Powell needs to walk the talk - and upcoming inflation statistics will force him to do so
15. December 2021
USA: A weak November retail sales report shows inflation creating headwinds to households
Britain: Inflation jumps and more is coming, as 'state-subsidised capitalism' is digging its own grave
China: The 'slump' continues - and now comes omicron - and the White House expands its 'blacklist'
14. December 2021
USA: Headline and core factory gates inflation jumps to a new record high. More in the pipeline. Omicron in China boosts the risk of more global supply chain disruption in Q1
USA: NFIB small business survey indicates 8% inflation in the first quarter of 2022. Six-month outlook index hit a new all-time low
Britain: A tight labour market raises wages for workers with the right skills, but real wage erosion could soon turn into the main trend. Natural gas prices hit a new all-time high
13. December 2021
Germany: Wholesales price inflation hitting the highest since 1962 is a harbinger of higher consumer price inflation in the first quarter of 2022
10. December 2021
USA: University of Michigan consumer sentiment index bounces back from a low level as a tight labour market mitigates the negative impact of higher inflation - as long as it lasts
USA: Consumer price inflation jumps to the highest since 1982 - and there is more in the pipeline as the Federal Reserve has not yet walked the talk
Podcast interview with Torbjörn Hamnmark, the Third Swedish National Pension Fund, AP3: How to adapt to what looks like several paradigm shifts in the global economy and financial market
9. December 2021
Brazil and Poland raise policy rates, precisely as 'know-it-all experts' in Europe and the US taught them in the past. Today, the ECB and Federal Reserve need advice from abroad
China: Consumer price inflation is not the problem - but a 'domestic slump'
7. December 2021
Germany: Industrial output bounces back in October as there is some relief from the global supply chain, but factory gates price pressure remains high
China: Imports propelled higher by restocking. What could prove to be the implications of the 'Taiwan question' on top of Beijing's agenda after the winter Olympics?
6. December 2021
China cuts banks' reserve requirement ratio by 50 basis points in a highly defensive move
Germany: Industrial orders plunged in October. Export companies face more trouble because Annalena Baerbock could radically change foreign policy - unless she is hit by the 'economic-reality roadblock'
3. December 2021
USA: The service sector showing signs of accelerating demand to a new all-time high and strong price pressure will force the Federal Reserve to act sooner rather than later
USA: The November labour market report shows a weak nonfarm payroll number but a sharp decline in the unemployment rate
Turkey: Inflation exceeds 20% and factory gates prices skyrocket by 55%. No light at the end of the tunnel
2. December 2021
Brazil was in a 'technical recession' in the third quarter. The central bank could be forced to raise policy rates by 400 basis points in 2022
Euro-zone producer price inflation skyrockets to 22%. It is challenging for households and companies to maintain confidence in the ECB
Podcast interview with Kirsten Malling Biering, a former Danish diplomat and ambassador to France, about the French Presidential election in 2022
1. December 2021
USA: The disruption of the global supply chain has not yet dented the demand side to the same extent as in Europe, according to the manufacturing ISM survey
Switzerland enjoys the benefit of a strong currency: Low inflation and robust growth. Conversely, the ECB's next decision will be crucial for the union
Germany: In October, supply chain disruption put a lid on retail sales. Inflation across the board will create headwinds to household spending going into 2022
30. November 2021
USA: Conference Board consumer survey shows skyrocketing inflations expectations - and the tightest labour market since 1978
Euro-zone inflation soars: History shows that 'uncontrolled inflation' most often creates the foundation for dramatic political changes
China: The official PMI index bounces back, but the economy is headed for significantly slower growth in 2022. Omicron and 'zero-tolerance strategy' spells trouble for the economy
29. November 2021
Germany: Consumer price inflation jumping to the highest since 1992 erodes the credibility of the ECB, according to German voters
EU Commission business and consumer survey shows inflation pressure is broadening to the entire economy
Turkey: Consumer confidence plunges to the lowest ever. Hyperinflation may now be the next phase unless Erdogan pulls himself together
26. November 2021
Australia shows the implications of a central bank no longer having a love affair with bond investors. This is a warning to the ECB and the Federal Reserve
Sweden: NIER Economic Tendency Survey shows no signs of falling inflation pressure. The opposite is the case
25. November 2021
Germany: The 'perfect match coalition' is what the voters opted for. The big winner is the FDP, but the coalition agenda could turn into a nightmare for the Green Party
24. November 2021
Britain: Industrial orders and inflation skyrocket to the highest since 1977. A rate hike on December 16 comes too late to restore the credibility of the Bank of England
Germany: The November IFO survey is a harbinger of no growth going into 2022
France: Insee business survey continues to show a robust recovery, but inflation pressure is still on the rise
23. November 2021
Euro-zone: Consumer confidence declines as inflation has turned into the primary headwind. What does Christine Lagarde have in common with President Erdogan?
18. November 2021
There will be no updates on November 19 and 22
USA: Philadelphia Fed survey shows skyrocketing inflation expectations, strong short-term demand and weak long-term growth
Turkey is maybe a special case, but the Federal Reserve and the ECB are using many of the same arguments of denial as President Erdogan
Central banks talking about 'transitory inflation' when fiscal policymakers are still going berserk seems naive. Tokyo considers launching 'the mother of all fiscal stimulus packages'
17. November 2021
USA: A weak housing market report in October does not change a picture of very strong housing demand
Britain: Inflation jumps in October as the Bank of England and other central banks look like Kamikaze pilots
16. November 2021
USA: Strong retail sales in October, but downbeat consumer surveys indicate heavy headwinds from inflation
British companies absorbing former furloughed workers do not prevent 'unfilled vacancies' from hitting a new all-time high
15. November 2021
USA: Empire State survey shows high demand, but also companies' limited ability to fulfil orders. Inflation and delivery time jump - and the future outlook declines
China: Economic activity is still trending lower despite a minor blip in October. House prices continue the downward trend
By Invitation: Spinning China's Communist Party History in favour of Xi Jinping
12. November 2021
USA: Consumer sentiment declines as the Federal Reserve leaving inflation expectations out of the bottle creates more headwinds than tailwinds. Recession will be needed to get it back into the bottle
Germany: Wholesale price inflation jumping to the highest since 1974 could have significant domestic and global ramifications
11. November 2021
Podcast interview with Jacob Pedersen, Head of Equity Research at Sydbank: Anecdotal evidence of supply chain disruption but no signs yet of significant labour shortage problems
