Articles

EU: Massive infrastructure investments - both public and private - are coming, but the room for manoeuvre is limited. The risk of stagflation is high

China's extensive 'firefighting' following yet another miscalculation in Beijing. Stimulus measures will be China First and higher commodity prices

Beijing finally gave in. Now, Berlin needs to remove its blinders to help Germany and the Eurozone

Chairman Powell may be on the road to making the next policy mistake - overly optimistic rate cut expectations

China inflates the balloon one week before the 75th anniversary - but fiscal stimulus is, so far, absent

China 'adjusts' to reduce the risk of social unrest, but the direction remains the same. The consequences for the EU will be significant

German Politicians with Blinders Risk Creating Chaos in the EU: The Perfect Outcome is Narrow

The Federal Reserve did the right thing, but it gives food for thought in the bond market

Eurozone: Wage pressure will not disappear. The outcome of the VW labour conflict will be crucial for Germany and the entire EU. Intel cancels factory in Magdeburg

China no longer has wise political leaders - but weak EU leaders continue to fall for old tricks in Beijing

The Eurozone faces chaotic years ahead - and the ECB cannot help much this time. The AfD is looking forward to the 2025 election

In the West, the risk of stagflation is likely more significant than the risk of recession

The final version of the Mid-Year Update Presentation is now available here

The Eurozone and the USA face a complicated period of policy rate cuts

EU: The UN Population Revision 2024 shows even stronger demographic headwinds unless politicians promote rather than hinder the spread of Artificial Intelligence

There will be no updates on August 31-September 9 due to vacation

USA: Falling inflation, a 50 basis points rate cut, and a new growth leg sound almost too good to be true. It is, indeed!

IFO survey: Germany's industry is in deep trouble, but Berlin is still wearing blinders

Germany's Economic Crisis in Slow-Motion: Berlin needs to act decisively before it is too late

Insightview's perspective on the US Federal Reserve's potential policy shift, recession, the Presidential election, the bond and stock markets

AI, Demographics, and Geopolitics - and What It Means for the Stock Market [article and video]

China: Everything points towards an 'asset price recession' unless stubbornness is replaced by realism in Beijing

The Federal Reserve's path of policy rate cuts and the implications for the bond market

A steepening US yield curve 'assumes' the Federal Reserve will do the 'right thing.' A robust NFIB survey shows why this will not be a classic economic slowdown

State elections in Germany: Sahra Wagenknecht benefits from the 'bookkeeper approach' in Berlin

The impact of AI on the US economy: Is divergence between SP500 market cap and nominal GDP too high?

The US Federal Reserve is likely more nervous than investors due to a significant decline in TIPS inflation expectations

Navigating the market bubble without losing sight of the big picture: ISM service survey brings relief to a nervous stock market

The blinders are off. A different aftermath due to a markedly different environment than in the past

A Federal Reserve policy rate cut of 50 basis points instead of 25 basis points cannot be ruled out following a surprisingly weak ISM survey

The Bank of Japan, yen repatriation, US 'recession' and 'growth panic': Does 'what did not happen earlier' unfold now? What are the consequences?

China's economy: Who speaks up if things go in the wrong direction?

Eurozone: The factors driving service inflation will not disappear in the next many years

Berlin 'saving itself to death' has now become the Eurozone's biggest problem

The US Federal Reserve and the ECB will lower policy rates, but the decision could suddenly appear in a different light

US Q2 growth report, a steepening yield curve and geopolitics make the coming quarters a delicate balancing act for the Federal Reserve

The economic undercurrent gains the upper hand in the Eurozone with huge political consequences to come

Is the financial market wearing blinders?

Summary of the 'Decision of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on Further Deepening Reform and Advancing Chinese Modernisation'

The Third Plenum meeting reinforces Xi Jinping's direction - more of the same that triggered the trade conflicts

A short note on strong regional Philadelphia Fed surveys in the United States

Weather Forecast: 'Hurricane-like Winds with Shifting Directions and the Formation of New Inflation Clouds in the Western Region. Unstable Fronts with Isolationist Trump-Vance Leadership'

The next Trump administration could push the EU into a dangerous security vacuum

China needs a 'controlled' recession, but Beijing has failed to create the institutionalised framework. Beijing has a different priority list

The political impact of the assassination attempt on Donald Trump before and after the election

Does falling US inflation also mean significantly lower bond yields?

Washington Meeting: Geopolitical tensions are escalating with significant economic consequences

The path of interest rates in the US - and the impact on the Eurozone bond market

Misunderstood fiscal discipline in Berlin: Germany's path to instability

French Election: The operation succeeded - but it caused the pendulum to swing to the left

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