Articles

Weekly Update - April 8, 2026

No Exit Strategy: Trump's Iran War and the Economic Fallout for Europe and America

There will be no updates over Easter on the following dates: 30 March to 3 April and 6 April.

Europe and Israel, Beware When the 'Peace President' Needs to Come Home to MAGA

Germany's Head Above Water, And Now the Wave Returns. Bearish Yield Curve Flattening. A Repeat of the 1970s Playbook?

Weekly Update - March 25, 2026

From Hormuz to the High Street: How the Iran War Is Hitting European Households and Bond Markets

The Art of the Delay: Trump, Iran and the Five-Day Gamble. How the Iran Strategy Is Sowing Long-Term Chaos

America's Iran Gamble: An Irreversible Cost, a Looming Fiscal Crisis - and an ECB That Will Act Decisively

The End of the Beginning: Trump's Iran War, MAGA Divisions, and the Crumbling of a Market Tailwind

Weekly Update - March 19, 2026

There will be no update on 17 and 18 March

China Beats Expectations - But the Cracks Run Deep: AI-related Infrastructure Up

From Hormuz to Main Street: How Trump's Iran War Is Hitting Consumers and Markets in America and Europe

Pearl Harbour in Reverse: Tariffs and How the Iran War Is Unravelling Trump's Domestic Agenda

Weekly Update - March 11, 2026

China's Paradox: Trade Dominance, Economic Crisis, and Strategic Retreat?

Pest or Cholera: The Iran Conflict's Uncharted Endgame and What It Means for Markets

Europe Faces More Inflation Pressure as Washington Stirs the Hornet's Nest

From ISM to Tehran: Why the Fed Has Nowhere Left to Go

Weekly Update - March 4, 2026

Strategic Incompetence: Falling Bond Prices, Self-Inflicted Energy Inflation and the Rug Pulled from Under the Tech Rally

The Federal Reserve and ECB Are Again Trapped Between War and Inflation

PM Takaichi Intensifies Geopolitically Driven Industrial Renaissance. Labour Shortages Are Increasing

EU Commission Survey Underscores Why the ECB's Focus Is Inflation, Despite Artificial Intelligence

Weekly Update - February 25, 2026

Friction, the Economic Reality of AI Displacement and the Risk of Starting the Guessing Far Too Late

German IFO survey and, not least, capital goods orders show only the tip of the iceberg, but what about capacity?

The Myth That the World Exploited the United States: Why America's Trade Deficit Reflects Its Own Choices

Trump's Tariffs and the Narrow Investment Cycle. Why the Risk Premium on US Assets Should Rise

Weekly Update - February 18, 2026

Hungary Votes: A Strategic Battleground for Trump, Putin, the EU - and China

The Hidden Macro, Social and Political Risks Behind the Technology Rally

Knee-Deep Trouble: Trump's Short-Term Fiscal Gains, Long-Term Strains, But MAGA Is Far from Dead

A 'Strong' US Employment Report, but Significant 2025 Revision. Inflation Will Still Surprise on the Upside

Weekly Update - February 11, 2026

Japan: LDP's largest lower house victory since 1955 will accelerate rearmament in Asia

There will be no update on Tuesday, 10 February

Germany's Industrial Split: Defence and Infrastructure Demand Boom and a Manufacturing Slump

Another Positive Surprise in German Industrial Orders Intake

Weekly Update - February 5, 2026

Reshoring Without Friends: Why US Manufacturing Gains May Prove Temporary

China's Weak Economy: Fiscal Strain and Rising Political Risk

Berlin May Need Madrid's Playbook: Lessons from Spain's Economic Turnaround

Is a Surprisingly Strong EU Business Survey the Start of a Demand Boom?

Weekly Update - January 29, 2026

IMF Warns of a Dollar Run, 'the Bundesbank Should Repatriate Its Gold Now,' and EU Prepares for Life Without the United States

Germany's Bazooka: Massive Demand Ahead as the ECB Watches Industrial Capacity Closely

The Outlook 2026 slides presentation is now available

Japan at a Critical Juncture with Major Risks for Europe and the United States

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