Articles

France: Insee business survey shows lacklustre growth - and sticky prices. ECB says tightening will continue

Bank deposit outflows accelerated in the Eurozone in February. Commercial banks will be forced to raise deposit rates

Eurozone: ECB's Monetary Development shows tightening conditions - but the ECB is expected to stay the course of 'overkilling' the economy

Germany: IFO survey significantly reduces the risk of 'recession' - so far

Japan: The quality of being 'long the yen' - even without monetary tightening

USA: The banking crisis and Wall Street investors distract the Federal Reserve, but Chairman Powell will stay the course

Britain: Inflation will not go away as central banks face a totally different environment than in 2008

A short note on the 'frenemies meeting' in Moscow: Deglobalisation, RMB internationalisation and more geopolitical tensions confirmed

US existing home sales jumped much-faster-than-expected in February - house prices dropped for the first time since 2012

The big difference between the '2008 bank run' and today: There is political and public support  to rescue the banking system - but not for bailing out bank shares

Germany: Factory gates inflation declines, but the absolute level of producer prices is still 50% higher than in 2019 - and the next inflation leg has already hit the shore

Podcast interview with foreign policy expert Camilla Tenna Nørup Sørensen: War or peace? Is China's President Xi Jinping a peacemaker or Moscow's ally? [language: Danish]

Xi Jinping as peacemaker in Europe? Yes, if China benefits

Eurozone: Labour costs jumped in the last quarter of 2022. Q1 will be even stronger as the EU faces a secular labour supply problem

China cuts the reserve requirement ratio. The economy needs growth drivers. Xi Jinping could act as a peacemaker in Europe if China benefits. China and USA could benefit

A short note on today's ECB Meeting: Monetary tightening is needed because today is not 2008

China: House prices 'bounce' back in February - but housing fundamentals are weak

Podcast interview with China expert Jorgen Delman: The West regrets its dependence on China - and Beijing bets on self-sufficiency and increases military spending. Decoupling will be expensive, very expensive - for China and the West [language: Danish]

USA: Philadelphia Fed survey continues to show a weak manufacturing sector - but activity in the service sector is far more important

China: Economic statistics in January-February do not give rise to much optimism

By Invitation: China's new Parliament focuses on economic recovery, security, and confrontation with the US

USA: Headline inflation moderates, but the biggest sector of the economy, services, sees the highest inflation rate since 1982

USA: NFIB small business survey shows a tightening labour market

A short note on the Iran-Saudi deal, yuan internationalisation, SVP, federal debt refinancing, CHIPS, IRA, banking crisis and North Korea

USA: Fiscal balances deteriorate as the Federal Reserve creates headwinds - and will continue to do so. Washington will soon have to raise defence spending markedly

'Virtual Company visit' - Albatros: Adventure tourism in China - and what is happening in China. Register Now - 'First come, first served'

USA: January labour market report was not a 'statistical error' - and employment growth continued in February. No signs of labour market weakness in the coming months

China: Monetary statistics still show no signs of a sustainable and self-propelled economic recovery. Does Xi Jinping care? Maybe!

China: Falling inflation shows a weak and vulnerable recovery. The 'solidarity dilemma' facing Europe

The Eurozone is facing the same tight liquidity situation as the US economy - but the ECB faces bigger problems

USA: The liquidity situation is now contracting at the fastest rate since the 'Volcker era' - and the labour market might still show strength for a little longer

Germany: Industrial orders continue to bounce back. The difference between the financial crisis and today is the demographic headwind

A disappointing trade report and the Two-Sessions NPC meeting underscore that China faces significant headwinds

China's Two-Sessions Meeting: 'Moderate' growth forecast of only 5% in 2023 despite the reopening process. Why? Beijing plans to use more money on geopolitical threats - to the disadvantage of private consumption

USA: The service sector is becoming the economy's main inflation driver. This means more work for the Federal Reserve, although inflation pressure declined in today's survey

Eurozone: Factory gates headline prices decline in January, but core prices increase. The new reality will create price volatility in the future

Japan: Tokyo price subsidies do not disguise increasing inflationary pressures. The share of households 'seeing inflation higher than 5%' skyrockets

Eurozone: Core inflation gains momentum in February as the ECB faces a larger-than-expected and structural inflation problem

Revisiting the 'monetary normalisation case': European real bond yields are still low based on ten-year inflation expectations

Germany: Headline price pressure fails to decline before the next inflation leg emerges. More tightening for longer will continue the normalisation process in the bond market

USA: ISM manufacturing survey shows more contraction and higher inflation pressure

China: A sharp rebound in the official PMI indexes creates the foundation for higher commodity prices - and will contribute to a new global inflation leg in H2

USA: The Conference Board consumer survey shows falling inflation expectations. The share of households 'seeing plentiful of jobs' jumped in February

Eurozone: The ECB will be forced to tighten more for longer as the monetary union faces structural inflation problems

Eurozone: A tight labour market makes households 'upbeat' - or 'less downbeat'. Stronger wage increases?

Podcast interview: Is the 'China adventure' over? [language: Danish]

USA: New home sales, tight labour market and sticky inflation will force policy rates higher for longer - and trigger a recession

Japan: Inflation increases to the highest since 1981. Toyota raises wages at the fastest pace in 26 years

Germany: Falling energy prices fail to boost spending plans as households see Berlin's foreign policy strategy in the last two decades collapse

Sweden: The economy showed only a weak rebound in sentiment in February. Service sector inflation expectations hit a new all-time high, according to NIER

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