Articles

Articles — 24 May 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

British CPI report: This is neither '2008' nor 'the 1970s' - the long-term task of central banks is far more challenging

Articles — 23 May 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

US new home sales report: No signs of 'economic contraction' will force the Federal Reserve to err on the hawkish side

Articles — 23 May 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

A short note on the latest geopolitical events:  The course of events has taken control away from politicians around the world

Articles — 22 May 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

'Virtual China visit' - Steffen Schiottz-Christensen from Chengdu, China. Register Now - 'First come, first served'

Articles — 22 May 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

Japan: 'Back-sourcing' and increasing wages require significantly higher productivity, corporate spending and inflow of foreign workers

Articles — 22 May 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

USA: Philadelphia Fed survey shows more disinflation and manufacturing contraction. The starting point in the next recovery phase is a tight labour market

Articles — 17 May 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

Japan: The economy surprises by showing strong growth in the first quarter of 2023, but labour shortages put a lid on the economy

Articles — 17 May 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

A strong French labour market report is not good news but underscores an EU problem that will become significantly worse in the future

Podcast — 16 May 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

Podcast interview with Anders Overvad, Think Tank Europa: The EU faces a fiscal and demographic hurricane [language: Danish]

Articles — 16 May 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

China's economy stumbles, but Beijing has no intentions of supporting households. The main focus is SOEs and defence spending

Articles — 15 May 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

Germany: Falling wholesale price statistics indicate CPI inflation close to the 3%-4% range. Nonetheless, 'monetary normalisation' continues

Articles — 15 May 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

Eurozone: A mild winter is not enough to support manufacturing activity. Many European manufacturers face an existential crisis without subsidises

Articles — 12 May 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

The European Union faces an unprecedented demographic and fiscal hurricane

Articles — 11 May 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

China: A benign inflation report underscores structural weakness in the economy. Will Beijing bail out distressed provinces?

Articles — 10 May 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

USA: Annual inflation is slowing, but still a long way to go with a different labour market than in 2008 - and higher 'normalised policy rates'

Articles — 10 May 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

Italy: Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has, so far, been a positive surprise. However, pragmatism will soon be tested as Italy faces unprecedented demographic headwinds

Articles — 09 May 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

USA: NFIB small business sentiment survey underscores the decisive difference between 2008 and today

Articles — 09 May 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

USA: CBO report shows soaring interest payment boosting the budget deficit. Investors need to get used to a new normal - the end of central banks sponsoring fiscal expansion

Articles — 08 May 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

Is Turkey still a democracy? If so, the upcoming election provides hope for the future and a sharp lira appreciation

Articles — 08 May 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

Germany: Industrial orders and production plunge. Berlin moves to 'Plan B' - subsidised energy price of 6 cents. The slow demolition of the Single Market continues

Articles — 08 May 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

USA April Employment Report: Secular forces will limit the rise in unemployment despite lower growth. Consequence: Elevated policy rates for longer

Articles — 04 May 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

USA: The financial market interpretation is 'pause' or 'easing', but the press conference shows Powell intends to err on the hawkish side

Articles — 03 May 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

USA: ISM service survey neither indicates an upcoming recession nor contraction in the labour market

Articles — 03 May 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

France: Public sector imbalances deteriorate.  The ECB will no longer sponsor fiscal irresponsibility, leading to higher real bond yields

Articles — 03 May 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

The Federal Reserve is aware that a premature reversal of monetary policy will have the same catastrophic consequences as in 1980

Articles — 02 May 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

Not an easy task for the ECB: Another weak German retail sales report, more deposits outflow from Eurozone banks and falling 'lending standard'

Articles — 02 May 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

Australia: The RBA's decision to raise policy rates is a reminder to the financial market of a long-term monetary normalisation process

Articles — 01 May 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

The Bank of Japan stays the course despite increasing core inflation. Reindustrialisation and rearmament will make the impact of adverse demographics even worse

Articles — 01 May 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

USA: The manufacturing sector still shows economic contraction but not enough to change the course of monetary policy

Articles — 01 May 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

China: Growth momentum slows as the impact of the reopening process fades. Beijing exploits geopolitics to make life even harder for foreign brands on the mainland

Articles — 14 April 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

No updates from April 17th to April 28th

Articles — 14 April 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

Falling inflation is precisely what central banks and the bond market predicted. But it will be challenging to fulfil investors' next expectations leg in the Eurozone

Articles — 13 April 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

USA: The March producer price report shows what the ISM survey has predicted for some time. Investors forecast rate cuts, but a policy of 'monetary normalisation' will prevail

Articles — 13 April 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

China's trade report is yet more evidence that Beijing is betting on one of the 'old tools' - exports. Beijing will launch more aggressive infrastructure spending

Articles — 12 April 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

USA: Falling energy prices pull headline inflation lower. Service price inflation slows but remains far too high

Articles — 12 April 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

The Bank of Japan faces a dilemma - but its freedom of manoeuvring is limited

Articles — 11 April 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

China turns to the same policies that President Xi Jinping despised in the past. State-sponsored asset managers bail out state banks. Chinese manufacturers move production closer to the United States

Articles — 11 April 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

'Mission Accomplished' for Beijing: President Macron's catastrophic kowtow in Beijing divides the EU even more, and the transatlantic alliance is now at risk

Articles — 05 April 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

USA: ISM service survey shows broad-based weakness - and significantly lower inflation pressure

Articles — 05 April 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

The US labour market shows tentative signs of weakness - but this will not change the task of the Federal Reserve because the situation is different from 2008

Articles — 04 April 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

Beijing's efforts to internationalise the yuan are bearing fruit. The United States cannot overestimate the consequences of losing the dollar's status as a reserve currency

Articles — 04 April 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

Eurozone: German trade report underscores that dependence on China keeps increasing - directly and indirectly

Articles — 03 April 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

USA: ISM manufacturing PMI index dropped deeper into the contraction zone - and Opec+ throws a spanner into the works

Articles — 03 April 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

The Bank of Japan's Tankan survey shows a tightening labour market, stronger service sentiment and a weaker manufacturing sector. Still waiting for 'monetary normalisation'

Articles — 31 March 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

Germany: Retail sales in real terms plunge, as workers do not care about falling annual inflation. Workers need falling consumer prices or higher wages

Articles — 31 March 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

President Xi Jinping is no longer trying to hide where China is headed. History shows that it pays to listen to authoritarian leaders

Articles — 30 March 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

EU survey shows lacklustre growth, no further improvement in CPI inflation, but falling factory gate price pressure - and a tight labour market

Articles — 30 March 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

Eurozone: Preliminary reports show a sharp decline in the inflation rate. Nonetheless, the ECB does not base monetary policy on 'base effects'. Policy bias remains hawkish

Articles — 29 March 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

Sweden: A small bounce in business and consumer sentiment, but households' inflation assessment skyrockets to a new all-time high

Articles — 29 March 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

Germany and France: Consumer surveys underscore the challenges facing the ECB. Wage increase calls are supported by demographic 'tailwind'

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