Articles

Articles — 04 April 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

Beijing's efforts to internationalise the yuan are bearing fruit. The United States cannot overestimate the consequences of losing the dollar's status as a reserve currency

Articles — 03 April 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

The Bank of Japan's Tankan survey shows a tightening labour market, stronger service sentiment and a weaker manufacturing sector. Still waiting for 'monetary normalisation'

Articles — 03 April 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

USA: ISM manufacturing PMI index dropped deeper into the contraction zone - and Opec+ throws a spanner into the works

Articles — 31 March 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

President Xi Jinping is no longer trying to hide where China is headed. History shows that it pays to listen to authoritarian leaders

Articles — 31 March 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

Germany: Retail sales in real terms plunge, as workers do not care about falling annual inflation. Workers need falling consumer prices or higher wages

Articles — 30 March 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

Eurozone: Preliminary reports show a sharp decline in the inflation rate. Nonetheless, the ECB does not base monetary policy on 'base effects'. Policy bias remains hawkish

Articles — 30 March 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

EU survey shows lacklustre growth, no further improvement in CPI inflation, but falling factory gate price pressure - and a tight labour market

Articles — 29 March 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

Germany and France: Consumer surveys underscore the challenges facing the ECB. Wage increase calls are supported by demographic 'tailwind'

Articles — 29 March 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

Sweden: A small bounce in business and consumer sentiment, but households' inflation assessment skyrockets to a new all-time high

Articles — 28 March 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

France: Insee business survey shows lacklustre growth - and sticky prices. ECB says tightening will continue

Articles — 28 March 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

Bank deposit outflows accelerated in the Eurozone in February. Commercial banks will be forced to raise deposit rates

Articles — 27 March 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

Germany: IFO survey significantly reduces the risk of 'recession' - so far

Articles — 27 March 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

Eurozone: ECB's Monetary Development shows tightening conditions - but the ECB is expected to stay the course of 'overkilling' the economy

Articles — 24 March 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

Japan: The quality of being 'long the yen' - even without monetary tightening

Articles — 23 March 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

USA: The banking crisis and Wall Street investors distract the Federal Reserve, but Chairman Powell will stay the course

Articles — 22 March 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

A short note on the 'frenemies meeting' in Moscow: Deglobalisation, RMB internationalisation and more geopolitical tensions confirmed

Articles — 22 March 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

Britain: Inflation will not go away as central banks face a totally different environment than in 2008

Articles — 21 March 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

The big difference between the '2008 bank run' and today: There is political and public support  to rescue the banking system - but not for bailing out bank shares

Articles — 21 March 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

US existing home sales jumped much-faster-than-expected in February - house prices dropped for the first time since 2012

Articles — 20 March 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

Germany: Factory gates inflation declines, but the absolute level of producer prices is still 50% higher than in 2019 - and the next inflation leg has already hit the shore

Articles — 17 March 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

China cuts the reserve requirement ratio. The economy needs growth drivers. Xi Jinping could act as a peacemaker in Europe if China benefits. China and USA could benefit

Articles — 17 March 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

Eurozone: Labour costs jumped in the last quarter of 2022. Q1 will be even stronger as the EU faces a secular labour supply problem

Articles — 17 March 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

Xi Jinping as peacemaker in Europe? Yes, if China benefits

Articles — 16 March 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

China: House prices 'bounce' back in February - but housing fundamentals are weak

Articles — 16 March 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

A short note on today's ECB Meeting: Monetary tightening is needed because today is not 2008

Articles — 16 March 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

USA: Philadelphia Fed survey continues to show a weak manufacturing sector - but activity in the service sector is far more important

Articles — 15 March 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

China: Economic statistics in January-February do not give rise to much optimism

Articles — 14 March 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

By Invitation: China's new Parliament focuses on economic recovery, security, and confrontation with the US

Articles — 14 March 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

USA: NFIB small business survey shows a tightening labour market

Articles — 14 March 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

USA: Headline inflation moderates, but the biggest sector of the economy, services, sees the highest inflation rate since 1982

Articles — 13 March 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

USA: Fiscal balances deteriorate as the Federal Reserve creates headwinds - and will continue to do so. Washington will soon have to raise defence spending markedly

Articles — 13 March 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

A short note on the Iran-Saudi deal, yuan internationalisation, SVP, federal debt refinancing, CHIPS, IRA, banking crisis and North Korea

Articles — 10 March 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

'Virtual Company visit' - Albatros: Adventure tourism in China - and what is happening in China. Register Now - 'First come, first served'

Articles — 10 March 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

China: Monetary statistics still show no signs of a sustainable and self-propelled economic recovery. Does Xi Jinping care? Maybe!

Articles — 10 March 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

USA: January labour market report was not a 'statistical error' - and employment growth continued in February. No signs of labour market weakness in the coming months

Articles — 09 March 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

China: Falling inflation shows a weak and vulnerable recovery. The 'solidarity dilemma' facing Europe

Articles — 08 March 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

USA: The liquidity situation is now contracting at the fastest rate since the 'Volcker era' - and the labour market might still show strength for a little longer

Articles — 08 March 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

The Eurozone is facing the same tight liquidity situation as the US economy - but the ECB faces bigger problems

Articles — 07 March 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

A disappointing trade report and the Two-Sessions NPC meeting underscore that China faces significant headwinds

Articles — 07 March 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

Germany: Industrial orders continue to bounce back. The difference between the financial crisis and today is the demographic headwind

Articles — 06 March 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

China's Two-Sessions Meeting: 'Moderate' growth forecast of only 5% in 2023 despite the reopening process. Why? Beijing plans to use more money on geopolitical threats - to the disadvantage of private consumption

Articles — 03 March 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

Japan: Tokyo price subsidies do not disguise increasing inflationary pressures. The share of households 'seeing inflation higher than 5%' skyrockets

Articles — 03 March 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

Eurozone: Factory gates headline prices decline in January, but core prices increase. The new reality will create price volatility in the future

Articles — 03 March 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

USA: The service sector is becoming the economy's main inflation driver. This means more work for the Federal Reserve, although inflation pressure declined in today's survey

Articles — 02 March 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

Revisiting the 'monetary normalisation case': European real bond yields are still low based on ten-year inflation expectations

Articles — 02 March 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

Eurozone: Core inflation gains momentum in February as the ECB faces a larger-than-expected and structural inflation problem

Articles — 01 March 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

China: A sharp rebound in the official PMI indexes creates the foundation for higher commodity prices - and will contribute to a new global inflation leg in H2

Articles — 01 March 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

Germany: Headline price pressure fails to decline before the next inflation leg emerges. More tightening for longer will continue the normalisation process in the bond market

Articles — 01 March 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

USA: ISM manufacturing survey shows more contraction and higher inflation pressure

Articles — 28 February 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

Eurozone: The ECB will be forced to tighten more for longer as the monetary union faces structural inflation problems

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