Articles

Articles — 14 July 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

USA: A strong University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey is more evidence of another 'growth leg' coming - in an economy without idle workers

Articles — 13 July 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

China's declining trade figures are a reflection of mounting challenges. Mexico is now the largest supplier of the United States

Articles — 13 July 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

Germany's complicated relationship with China and Russia in an environment with AfD now at 22% and with 'moral backing' in Beijing

Articles — 12 July 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

A short note on the NATO summit in Vilnius: Geopolitics leave little room for ECB manoeuvring despite falling inflation

Articles — 12 July 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

USA: Falling inflation will not change the monetary stance of the Federal Reserve, considering a historically tight labour market

Articles — 11 July 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

Britain needs more than just luck to escape the long-term consequences of an irresponsible fiscal and monetary policy since 2008

Articles — 11 July 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

Spain: Households feel good, but the voters could move the country significantly to the far right on July 23, as 'Spanish values are at risk'

Articles — 10 July 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

China's deflationary problem: A consequence of policy choices. 'Young people need not be sent to the countryside to understand the world'

Articles — 07 July 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

Central banks and 'robust' house prices: The difference compared to 2008 makes monetary policy far more challenging

Articles — 07 July 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

USA: Higher wage inflation and weaker-than-expected employment growth in June - or maybe companies cannot find qualified workers

Articles — 06 July 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

Germany: Military equipment demand helps boost industrial orders, but the outlook remains grim. AfD [21%] could soon become the largest party. Is a CDU-CSU-AfD coalition possible in the future?

Articles — 06 July 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

US ISM service survey: The Federal Reserve is forced to err on the hawkish side due to a different environment compared to 2008 and the 1970s

Articles — 05 July 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

China's 'solution' to the economic challenges is more ideology and nationalism - in sharp contrast to the financial crisis in 2008

Articles — 05 July 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

Eurozone: Disinflation continues, but the ECB focuses on the labour market. Germany needs 1.5 million immigrants per year to maintain the size of the workforce, according to 'wise men'

Articles — 03 July 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

The stock market: Artificial Intelligence expectations and falling headline inflation versus inverted yield curves

Articles — 03 July 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

France: Paris is running out of fiscal ammo as the budget deficit moves closer to the pandemic level

Articles — 03 July 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

USA: ISM survey shows no signs of a rebound in the manufacturing sector. Disinflation intensifies

Articles — 28 June 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

Germany: An unpredictable future and political chaos in Berlin cause consumer sentiment to drop despite short-term tailwinds

Articles — 28 June 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

Eurozone: ECB's Monetary Development Report shows further monetary weakness and slowing loan demand

Articles — 28 June 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

There will be no updates on June 29-30

Articles — 28 June 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

France: Insee consumer survey shows a tighter labour market in the coming months despite slower growth. Wages are rising

Articles — 27 June 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

A historically right-wing shift in Germany and the rest of the EU will have consequences in all areas

Articles — 27 June 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

USA: The yield curve says recession, but the economy has not 'surrendered' yet. New home sales skyrocket in May - and consumer confidence bounces back

Articles — 26 June 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

IFO survey: Germany faces a double-dip recession as geopolitics pulls the carpet under the economy. AfD sees more gain in the latest opinion poll. Also, a short note on Russia

Articles — 23 June 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

Japan: Core inflation hits the highest since the early 1980s - but BOJ does not believe inflation has gained a firm foothold

Articles — 23 June 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

Britain: The renewed surge in consumer confidence indicates, to no small extent, that fiscal and monetary policymakers are not in control of the inflation situation

Articles — 22 June 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

France: Insee survey shows weak growth. The labour shortage problem remains the same as one year ago. Higher ECB policy rates for longer

Articles — 21 June 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

The Bank of England is slowly learning the lesson: More tightening is the only option in an economy running out of workers

Articles — 20 June 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

Germany: Falling factory gates inflation is not a surprise. The ECB will stay the course of bringing policy rates and bond yields back to the 'old normal'

Articles — 20 June 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

China's changing social landscape requires younger leadership better in touch with the people

Articles — 19 June 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

USA-China rivalry: 'Two steps backwards, one step forward - followed by another two steps backwards'

Articles — 16 June 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

Japan: The central bank stays the course as if nothing has happened, triggering more yen weakness

Articles — 16 June 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

Eurozone: According to the ECB, wage pressure remains far too high for comfort. It will become worse in 2024 - with or without Artificial Intelligence

Articles — 16 June 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

USA: UoM survey shows households benefiting from lower inflation and higher wages. Are there tentative signs of a new growth leg in Q4?

Articles — 15 June 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

China: The economy has a significant growth problem - but the biggest problem is a stubborn political leadership

Articles — 14 June 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

Germany: Wholesale inflation indicates a sharp decline in headline inflation in H2, but the labour market tells a different story

Articles — 14 June 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

USA: Factory gate inflation slows, but the Federal Reserve will stay the course until 2% has been reached

Articles — 13 June 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

Britain: Zero growth and a buoyant labour market say everything about the problems facing Europe

Articles — 13 June 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

The Chinese seek solutions from a clueless centre: 'Ten basis points interest rate cut'! Imbalances created in a semi-capitalist system now need to be solved in a Marxist state-capitalist system

Articles — 13 June 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

USA: NFIB small business survey shows significant demand-side impact from monetary policy - but the labour market remains very tight and price pressure persists

Articles — 12 June 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

Eurozone: Why today is different from 2008 and the 1970s. You ain't seen nothing yet when it comes to demographic headwinds

Articles — 09 June 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

China: The May inflation statistics indicate a very weak domestic demand side. The provinces seek solutions from a pressured leadership at the centre, but it has no clear answers

Articles — 08 June 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

The Eurozone recorded a mild recession in Q1, but bond yields are still headed higher despite lower growth in the coming years

Articles — 07 June 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

China: The economy sees pressure from 'containment measures' and monetary tightening in the West. 'Self-reliance and a strong military' is Beijing's answer

Articles — 06 June 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

Germany: The economy's fragile 'reconstruction' has just started, but the coalition government in Berlin is already in big trouble

Articles — 06 June 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

The lessons from Australia: Monetary normalisation is here to stay for an extended period despite declining inflation

Articles — 05 June 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

Turkey needs to do the opposite of Erdoganomics, now and not tomorrow. The unavoidable outcome will be a deep recession

Articles — 05 June 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

USA: ISM service survey shows falling growth, lower inflation and employment contraction

Articles — 02 June 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

USA: The labour market remains buoyant despite slow growth. The Federal Reserve will continue on a path of monetary tightening

Articles — 01 June 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

German workers lost within 18 months what they had gained since 2010. Now, they want compensation

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