Articles

What to expect from the US labour market in a world facing the worst geopolitical and demographic challenges since the Second World War

Eurozone: To keep inflation down requires a completely different political approach. There is no room for political fumbling

Weekly Update - February 1, 2024

Beijing now has two options

The Eurozone economy is weak - but not enough to pave the way for significant policy rate cuts

Podcast interview [plus VIDEO] with AI expert: Could Artificial Intelligence turn out to be the panacea to the EU's problems? [English and Danish]

ECB's Lagarde talks about policy rate cuts - but the room of maneuvring is limited

Weekly Update - January 25, 2024

Strikes and Berlin in disarray are reflected in yet another weak IFO survey, indicating a deeper recession in 2024

Beijing's dilemma: More of the same that created the current problems or real economic reforms 'without Chinese characteristics'?

There will not be any updates on January 23 and 24 due to a business trip

USA: The University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey once again shows the difference between today and 2008-2010

Social and political chaos in Germany should not be a surprise. More is in the pipeline

Is artificial intelligence a panacea for the EU? Yes, to a large extent, provided politicians do not create obstacles

Weekly Update - January 18, 2024

'Virtual China visit' - January 29 or 31 - Michael R. Chang, GM Yara Marine Technologies, Shanghai: Is China changing in the wrong direction? Register Now - 'First come, first served'

EU and Britain: Artificial Intelligence provides an excellent possibility to reduce headwinds from geopolitics and demographics if the politicians do not create obstacles

PBOC appears to be boosting liquidity - but it is not being utilised

China's problems could soon belong to the EU unless Brussels acts. Why doesn't Beijing protect the main route to Europe?

This time, Donald Trump will do it the 'right' way. What does that mean?

Weekly Update - January 11, 2024

Eurozone: Low growth no longer necessarily means higher unemployment. This will have significant consequences for monetary policy

The consequences of the erosion of free speech and information flow in China

A short note about an unusually sharp decline in the employment index in the ISM service survey

The EU business and consumer survey underscores why the ECB faces a different environment than in 2008-2010

USA: The labour market report does not give the Federal Reserve reason to change its strategy - but should instead lead the bond market to temper its optimism

Eurozone: Demographic changes mitigate the economic downturn but will create huge fundamental problems in the next phase

Germany: More consequences loom after decades of misguided foreign and industrial policy. Many companies behave as though we are still in a sweet spot. Next problem - Iran

Weekly Update - January 4, 2024

The new geopolitical reality: Massive military build-up, renewed pressure on tight labour markets, higher fiscal deficits - and China forced to go out 'on thin ice'

There will be no updates from December 20 to January 1, 2024, due to the holiday period

German IFO survey indicates a deeper recession. New elections becoming more likely. CDU-CSU is larger than the current coalition combined - poll

Chinese economic statistics show no signs of relief, as Beijing seems bewildered about what to do. Second-hand house prices drop at the fastest annual rate since 2015

The Federal Reserve projects what the financial market already projected before the FOMC meeting - but central banks' freedom of maneuvering is no longer the same as before

What If? - including audio-video

USA: Service price inflation is falling far too slowly. NFIB survey indicates a sharp re-acceleration in wage pressure in the first half of 2024

A short note on Eurozone unit labour costs statistics: ECB needs positive productivity growth or significantly higher unemployment

Chinese disinflation would have been worse without Beijing kicking the can down the road. Turkey targets Chinese EVs

USA: Unemployment will increase in 2024 but at a painfully slower pace than in the past

Why European politicians' perception and the 'closing window of opportunity' matter for the bond market in 2024

Podcast interview with Jacob Funk Kirkegaard, PIIE and German Marshall Fund: What kind of Washington are we facing in the coming years?

China's trade balance report highlights the extent to which Beijing needs the EU - and vice versa

Weekly Update - December 7, 2023

USA: ISM service survey shows no signs of recession. The Federal Reserve needs higher unemployment or significantly lower inflation to cut policy rates

Faltering support for Ukraine will be costly for EU countries in 2024 and beyond. Poland reiterates the warning from the German Council on Foreign Relations

A short note on the bond market rally

US ISM survey: The Federal Reserve will start a slow process of policy rate cuts when unemployment increases 'more significantly'

Eurozone inflation: The low-hanging fruits are gone. Now, energy prices (just) need to remain stable, and unemployment needs to rise

A weak Chinese economy makes the outcome of the upcoming EU-China summit even more interesting

EU Commission survey continues to show a very tight Eurozone labour market - but falling inflation expectations

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