Articles

Articles — 01 September 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

US employment report: Monetary policy is working - but the task of the Federal Reserve will be challenged by demographics and geopolitics - and politicians who are not lending a helping hand

Articles — 31 August 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

China's economic quagmire: Beijing still shows no convincing signs of comprehensive support for the economy because it cannot and does not necessarily want to

Articles — 31 August 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

Revisiting monetary policy: Why central banks prefer to err on the 'hawkish' side

Articles — 30 August 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

The geopolitical reality is unfolding at the worst possible time. Therefore, the EU needs to show strength on all fronts now and not tomorrow

Articles — 30 August 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

The EU Commission survey supports the ECB's current hawkish monetary stance despite slowing economic momentum. Households are upbeat about the labour market

Articles — 29 August 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

German households are slowly starting to fear the risk of unemployment despite significant wage increases, but the fear is still far from the levels seen in 2008

Articles — 29 August 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

Macroeconomic and Political Update Web Presentation

Articles — 28 August 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

Eurozone contraction: The ECB needs to clean up after two crises because there was a lack of timely action following the Great Recession

Articles — 25 August 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

A brief summary of opinions expressed by Jens Eskelund, President of the EU Chamber in China, in today's podcast interview

Articles — 25 August 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

Germany: The IFO survey shows signs of the 'Perfect Storm', but the ECB needs to see higher unemployment to end the tightening process

Articles — 24 August 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

France: Insee's business survey indicates declining employment expectations - but households do not see a high risk of becoming unemployed

Articles — 23 August 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

USA: Existing Home Sales report underscores the big difference to 2008. The Federal Reserve has a tough task, as fiscal policymakers need to focus on geopolitical risks 

Articles — 22 August 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

As expected, Beijing disappoints the financial market due to 'well-meaning' but ill-timed policy intentions. Stubbornness can hit the economy hard

Articles — 21 August 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

Germany: Factory gate deflation will not change the ECB's monetary stance - even as Beijing's stimulus measures undershoot expectations

Articles — 18 August 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

How will China's economic crisis impact inflation in the West?

Articles — 17 August 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

USA: The Philadelphia Fed survey shows the challenges facing the Federal Reserve - and its task is far from over

Articles — 16 August 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

Britain: In the midst of a demographic hurricane, inflation will be a recurring issue all over Europe

Articles — 16 August 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

China's housing market shows no signs of relief. The 'core leader' can forget all about military ambitions without a dynamic and strong economy

Articles — 15 August 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

A paralysed Beijing reacts reluctantly to economic headwinds because there is a growing fear of more than just a cyclical problem. The answer is more 'Xinomics'

Articles — 15 August 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

The point of no return: Russia and China intensify military cooperation. European politicians, companies, and investors are in the midst of a dangerous geopolitical paradigm shift

Articles — 11 August 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

China's bank lending statistics are yet another blow to Xi Jinping's leadership. There is not much room for many more policy mistakes

Articles — 10 August 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

Britain: The RICS housing survey shows the complex challenges facing central banks. House prices plunge, and rents increase

Articles — 10 August 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

USA: The easy part of 'controlling inflation' will soon be over. The ingredients to create a new inflation leg are present and gaining momentum

Articles — 09 August 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

Central Banks on a tightrope: Why lowering their guard is not an option in an environment of aggressive fiscal spending and demographic headwinds

Articles — 09 August 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

China: 'De-risking' is just another word for 'decoupling' invented in Europe to avoid even more anger in Beijing'. Xi Jinping's next U-turn around the corner?

Articles — 08 August 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

China's foreign trade plunges. 'It is the economy, stupid'

Articles — 08 August 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

USA: The NFIB small business sentiment survey shows tentative signs of bouncing back - but from a low level

Articles — 04 August 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

Germany: Rising industrial orders in June do not change a grim outlook for the economy. The political centre needs to get its act together, but political disarray prevails

Articles — 04 August 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

US Employment Report in July: The labour shortage problem will persist in 2024. The bond market needs to adjust the yield curve

Articles — 03 August 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

France: A looming fiscal crisis in the West finally gets the attention of the financial market, but there will be no 'cutting corners' this time

Articles — 02 August 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

Beijing sees spies everywhere: Another warning for foreign companies in China?

Articles — 02 August 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

A short note on why the downgrading of the US credit rating is not an isolated phenomenon but could be a foreboding reality for several EU member states

Articles — 01 August 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

Eurozone labour market: This time is markedly different although the difference is still ignored by the bond market

Articles — 01 August 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

USA: ISM manufacturing index shows no signs yet of a rebound, but a 'recovery' is just around the corner, supported by the Chips Act and the Inflation Reduction Act

Articles — 31 July 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

China: Weak PMI signals persist. A reluctant Beijing to unveil a huge economic stimulus plan today - but not the same as in 2008

Articles — 31 July 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

Germany's economic overhaul: The monetary consequences of a German 'recovery plan'. Without stimulus, the political centre will disappear

Articles — 28 July 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

The Bank of Japan lets the genie out of the bottle by allowing more ten-year bond yield flexibility - adding upward pressure on global bond yields

Articles — 28 July 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

Eurozone survey: Households' inflation expectations decline. Optimism for the job market persists despite zero economic growth

Articles — 27 July 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

The US Federal Reserve lifts policy rates to the highest since 2001. The new minimum policy rate will be significantly higher than in the past

Articles — 27 July 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

ECB lifts key interest rates despite clear signs of slower growth. Does this make sense?

Articles — 26 July 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

Eurozone: The real test of the ECB has just started. Will policymakers maintain the long-term focus?

Articles — 25 July 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

Germany: The IFO survey casts a shadow on the economy. Soon a new party could pull even more votes from the centre - but this time from the far left

Articles — 25 July 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

China: New measures to stimulate the economy: A desperate turn or a calculated manoeuvre? Are private entrepreneurs and foreigners willing to bite the hook?

Articles — 25 July 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

USA: More evidence of another growth leg, according to the Conference Board consumer survey

Articles — 21 July 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

USA: Philadelphia Fed survey underscores the probability of another 'growth' leg. How does this align with an inverted yield curve?

Articles — 20 July 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

France: Insee survey shows no signs of an upcoming recession. The labour market is tight, and the fiscal deficit is on the rise

Articles — 20 July 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

A steep decline in Taiwan's export orders and South Korea's trade figures show a gloomy economy. China's economy needs more than words

Articles — 19 July 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

Britain: Inflation is easing, but Prime Minister Sunak has let the genie out of the bottle

Articles — 18 July 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

China's looming economic challenges: Will Xi Jinping continue to disregard a significant risk of asset price deflation?

Articles — 14 July 2023 SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

The unusual monetary policy of the Bank of Japan amid global tightening, private consumption and 1989-1990

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