Articles

EU's secular problem - labour shortage - is highly evident in French business surveys

Has the ECB promised too much? Yes, according to German wage statistics and due to a hostile geopolitical environment

Weekly Update - May 23, 2024

Why are commodity prices rising?

Due to Whit Monday, there will be no update on May 20

Beijing reacts when the CPC is threatened. The real estate sector crisis requires action, but new measures are mostly kicking the can down the road

Washington's focus on inflation and the federal budget deficit will soon become the EU's biggest problem as generosity fades

Weekly Update - May 16, 2024

USA: Demographics, 'significant de-risking', and military build-up will amplify inflationary pressures in the coming quarters and years

British labour market report underscores European central banks' lack of room for manoeuvre

'Xi Jinping's China' is becoming more visible on the horizon in the West. This gives rise to concern in the EU

Due to Ascension Day, there will be no update on May 9 and May 10

Weekly Update - May 9, 2024

Germany's many obstacles: Fifth-column activities, Scholz and Christian Lindner stand in the way of voters who support change

A short note on the US employment report and the ISM surveys: A paradigm shift

The EU faces crucial days and months. The first test is the Xi Jinping visit. The next test: Ukraine's vulnerable eastern front?

The US labour market will continue to hit its ceiling without massive increases in productivity

Japan is a 'currency manipulator' - but no one has an interest in telling Tokyo [corrected]

Western central banks face a reality check. Wage inflation will not go away without higher unemployment - but this requires significant tightening

Weekly Update - May 2, 2024

The EU Parliamentary election could prove to be fateful. It will reveal whether a strong centre has the support of the voters

The Eurozone economy has stalled

The likelihood of 'significant EU de-risking' away from China is increasing

The Bank of Japan continues to speak with a forked tongue. This cannot go unpunished for the yen as the US Federal Reserve may not be able to lower interest rates

The ECB would have already cut policy rates multiple times if these were 'normal times'. It is not!

Weekly Update - April 25, 2024

Germany: The IFO survey continues to show improvement - but the risk of 'profound de-risking' away from China is on the rise

Podcast interview with Jacob Kaarsbo: ENGLISH transcript - Ukraine, Iran, China, Russia, Donald Trump and what awaits the EU countries in the coming time

A dynamic geopolitical situation could sooner rather than later force the EU to address more aggressively its dependency on China

US Philadelphia Fed survey: A new inflation leg is underway in the manufacturing sector

The aftermath of Scholz's kowtow: Beijing has a problem if the EU proves to have a backbone - and so will many European companies in China

Weekly Update - April 18, 2024

China: 'Impressive' growth number in Q1 if you are wearing blinkers

The missile attack wiped the slate clean for Netanyahu and opened a window of opportunity to target Iran's nuclear weapons program

The underlying details in China's trade statistics continue to show domestic weakness. Scholz headed for another kowtow in Beijing

Podcast interview with USA expert Niels Bjerre-Poulsen: What happens if Trump becomes the next president of the United States?

Deflationary tendencies bring up the 'bazooka talk' again, but Beijing has a completely different agenda

Weekly Update - April 11, 2024

USA: The Federal Reserve's job is far from done. Reducing service price inflation is difficult without a significant increase in unemployment

The Bank of Japan is playing with fire: Households are seeing stronger wage increases and higher inflation

Another strong US labour market report will not give 'inevitable' policy rate cuts a particularly warm reception in the long end of the bond market

If Ukraine falls, public sector expenditure in EU member states will rise rapidly in a world with many constraints

The US Federal Reserve now has a complete picture - but pointing in all directions

Weekly Update - April 4, 2024

The ECB only has the option for symbolic policy rate cuts. Real bond yields will rise, and productivity needs to increase [includes two extra charts]

Japan's service sentiment increases to the highest since 1991. Higher JGB yields will trigger rising bond yields in the USA and Eurozone

Are the many 'Acts' in the USA finally creating a new growth leg in the manufacturing sector?

Due to Easter, there will be no update from March 28 to April 1 - both days included

China's problem is that the EU intends to reduce dependence on a no longer trusted Beijing

Sweden is in a strong position to enjoy the benefit of a changed geopolitical situation with friend-shoring and higher defence spending

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