Articles

Weekly Update - April 11, 2024

USA: The Federal Reserve's job is far from done. Reducing service price inflation is difficult without a significant increase in unemployment

The Bank of Japan is playing with fire: Households are seeing stronger wage increases and higher inflation

Another strong US labour market report will not give 'inevitable' policy rate cuts a particularly warm reception in the long end of the bond market

If Ukraine falls, public sector expenditure in EU member states will rise rapidly in a world with many constraints

The US Federal Reserve now has a complete picture - but pointing in all directions

Weekly Update - April 4, 2024

The ECB only has the option for symbolic policy rate cuts. Real bond yields will rise, and productivity needs to increase [includes two extra charts]

Japan's service sentiment increases to the highest since 1991. Higher JGB yields will trigger rising bond yields in the USA and Eurozone

Are the many 'Acts' in the USA finally creating a new growth leg in the manufacturing sector?

Due to Easter, there will be no update from March 28 to April 1 - both days included

China's problem is that the EU intends to reduce dependence on a no longer trusted Beijing

Sweden is in a strong position to enjoy the benefit of a changed geopolitical situation with friend-shoring and higher defence spending

European defence stocks speak their own language, but politicians are chasing the train

The German IFO survey is nothing more than a dead cat bounce. German politics has become pure chaos with no solution to huge problems

The European Central Bank's room for monetary easing is limited, even though a rate cut in June is highly likely

The Reuters Tankan survey signals an accelerating Japanese economy. Buy the yen

Podcast interview: ENGLISH transcript - President of the EU Chamber in China - Reciprocity in the China-EU relationship without dialogue increases the risk of a serious clash

Weekly Update - March 21, 2024

China's economic problems are now so significant that the 'Emperor' must visit the EU

The Bank of Japan does not need to say many wrong words to create an avalanche. The global consequences could be significant

Chinese house price index declines to 2018 low. TikTok is part of an intensifying economic conflict with the West

Weekly Update - March 14, 2024

A short note on demographics, monetary policy, immigration and productivity

There will be no updates on March 13

US CPI inflation progress will be slow without a significant increase in unemployment. NFIB indicates this is in the pipeline - maybe

There is a good reason to fasten the seatbelt if Trump carries out just half his threats

German economy moves deeper into the abyss due to a lack of constructive political action. Industrial orders hit the lowest since 2010

Podcast interview: ENGLISH transcript - What happens in Europe if the USA leaves NATO? Interview with Sten Rynning, director of the Danish Institute for Advanced Study

China's trade report is yet another reminder of an impending trade war

Weekly Update - March 7, 2024

Weaker US growth in 2024 will pave the way for 'the least bad president,' whom no one truly desires

A short note on the Two Sessions Meeting in Beijing: There is little focus on the economy but much on a massive military buildup. Putin created a big mess for Beijing

French budget deficit highlights the challenges facing the Eurozone. The four largest Eurozone members illustrate the problem for the ECB

The ECB is set to disappoint the bond market beyond a 'pseudo-policy-rate cut' - unless unemployment increases significantly

China's economy is apparently so weak that a concerned Beijing will do everything possible to avoid a corporate exodus from China

German statistics paint a dire picture. The positive aspect is that most voters support dramatic changes - including massive rearmament

The EU Commission survey still highlights why the ECB does not have much room to manoeuvre

Weekly Update - February 29, 2024

The Eurozone shows marginal signs of improvement. EU leaders face unpopular decisions - a discussion started by the Danish Prime Minister

There is much talk about the EU's window of opportunity - but one should focus on Russia's 'best choice'. Poland talks about nuclear option

IFO survey indicates a deeper German recession - and with it comes an inevitable trade war with China

Chinese house prices continue to fall. How does one filter 'misinformation'?

The economic situation in Germany is now so bad that it's time to say goodbye to nostalgia. 'Goodbye SchuldenBremse'

Weekly Update - February 22, 2024

A short follow-up to the Eurozone wage statistics for Q4

The economic downturn in China's property market is too severe to pursue ideological politics at the moment

The primary task of the ECB is to create space for the defence industry. The consequence is lower private consumption - and higher real bond yields

The EU Commission is now paving the way for massive military rearmament. The Weimar Triangle opens up for a European military alliance with Britain without any 'stumbling blocks'

The US labour market will continue to bump against the ceiling in 2024

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