Articles

Weekly Update - August 1, 2024

Eurozone: The factors driving service inflation will not disappear in the next many years

Berlin 'saving itself to death' has now become the Eurozone's biggest problem

The US Federal Reserve and the ECB will lower policy rates, but the decision could suddenly appear in a different light

US Q2 growth report, a steepening yield curve and geopolitics make the coming quarters a delicate balancing act for the Federal Reserve

The economic undercurrent gains the upper hand in the Eurozone with huge political consequences to come

Weekly Update - July 25, 2024

Is the financial market wearing blinders?

Summary of the 'Decision of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on Further Deepening Reform and Advancing Chinese Modernisation'

The Third Plenum meeting reinforces Xi Jinping's direction - more of the same that triggered the trade conflicts

A short note on strong regional Philadelphia Fed surveys in the United States

Weather Forecast: 'Hurricane-like Winds with Shifting Directions and the Formation of New Inflation Clouds in the Western Region. Unstable Fronts with Isolationist Trump-Vance Leadership'

Weekly Update - July 18, 2024

The next Trump administration could push the EU into a dangerous security vacuum

The political impact of the assassination attempt on Donald Trump before and after the election

China needs a 'controlled' recession, but Beijing has failed to create the institutionalised framework. Beijing has a different priority list

Does falling US inflation also mean significantly lower bond yields?

Washington Meeting: Geopolitical tensions are escalating with significant economic consequences

Weekly Update - July 11, 2024

The path of interest rates in the US - and the impact on the Eurozone bond market

Misunderstood fiscal discipline in Berlin: Germany's path to instability

French Election: The operation succeeded - but it caused the pendulum to swing to the left

Due to vacation, there will be no updates on July 1-5

Germany stands out in the June EU business and consumer survey: One threat from Beijing and Olaf Scholz panics

China's window of opportunity: A second and last chance to save the relationship with the European Union?

Weekly Update - June 27, 2024

National Rally is poised for a major electoral victory. ECB will bear part of the credit risk for the election promises. What are the consequences of 'French nukes are for France'?

Germany needs - and will be forced to accept - lenient fiscal rules to make Germany and the EU survive

'Recovery' in the US manufacturing sector does not gain traction - but inflationary pressures accelerate. Trump and the risk of recession

Germany's competitiveness faces significant erosion without action

Weekly Update - June 20, 2024

The 'centre holds,' but the Eurozone faces unprecedented economic problems from weak productivity and soaring labour costs

China is in the midst of a balance sheet 'recession': Existing house prices drop at the fastest rate since 2011

Political chaos in France: Marine Le Pen knows the path to power through the front door at the centre, but what happens when she stands in the corridor of power?

Washington will be forced to address a spiralling federal debt - otherwise, the bond market will react accordingly

Weekly Update - June 13, 2024

USA: The NFIB sentiment survey shows no signs of a weakening labour market. Labour shortages will prevail throughout 2024

The game is over for the coalition in Berlin. Germany could soon be forced to call an early election - tomorrow might be too late

A weaker EU at the worst possible time means a higher risk premium. Will Meloni save the EU? What is the outcome of Macron's Russian Roulette?

Chinese trade figures still show signs of a weak domestic economy. The cost of 'de-risking' will be high for China and the EU

Weekly Update - June 6, 2024

ECB decides hawkish monetary easing because it has no other option

What happens if the gap between the ISM and the real economy closes?

The ECB's communication problem: Policy rate cut, service inflation, soaring budget deficits and labour shortages

A Beijing that continues to kick the can down the road and a West that no longer follows Beijing's playbook will not create a self-propelled recovery in China

Western secular challenges: Implications for bond markets, the yield curve and monetary policy

The European Central Bank's main challenge is to increase unemployment

Podcast interview with Camilla Tenna Norup Sorensen: The EU's next major challenge - the strained relationship with 'Xi Jinping's China'

Weekly Update - May 30, 2024

IFO survey: The road to recovery will be a long and arduous process, requiring massive investments in new technology

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