Articles

Deflationary tendencies bring up the 'bazooka talk' again, but Beijing has a completely different agenda

USA: The Federal Reserve's job is far from done. Reducing service price inflation is difficult without a significant increase in unemployment

The Bank of Japan is playing with fire: Households are seeing stronger wage increases and higher inflation

If Ukraine falls, public sector expenditure in EU member states will rise rapidly in a world with many constraints

Another strong US labour market report will not give 'inevitable' policy rate cuts a particularly warm reception in the long end of the bond market

The US Federal Reserve now has a complete picture - but pointing in all directions

The ECB only has the option for symbolic policy rate cuts. Real bond yields will rise, and productivity needs to increase [includes two extra charts]

Are the many 'Acts' in the USA finally creating a new growth leg in the manufacturing sector?

Japan's service sentiment increases to the highest since 1991. Higher JGB yields will trigger rising bond yields in the USA and Eurozone

China's problem is that the EU intends to reduce dependence on a no longer trusted Beijing

Due to Easter, there will be no update from March 28 to April 1 - both days included

Sweden is in a strong position to enjoy the benefit of a changed geopolitical situation with friend-shoring and higher defence spending

European defence stocks speak their own language, but politicians are chasing the train

The German IFO survey is nothing more than a dead cat bounce. German politics has become pure chaos with no solution to huge problems

The Reuters Tankan survey signals an accelerating Japanese economy. Buy the yen

The European Central Bank's room for monetary easing is limited, even though a rate cut in June is highly likely

China's economic problems are now so significant that the 'Emperor' must visit the EU

The Bank of Japan does not need to say many wrong words to create an avalanche. The global consequences could be significant

Chinese house price index declines to 2018 low. TikTok is part of an intensifying economic conflict with the West

A short note on demographics, monetary policy, immigration and productivity

There is a good reason to fasten the seatbelt if Trump carries out just half his threats

US CPI inflation progress will be slow without a significant increase in unemployment. NFIB indicates this is in the pipeline - maybe

There will be no updates on March 13

German economy moves deeper into the abyss due to a lack of constructive political action. Industrial orders hit the lowest since 2010

China's trade report is yet another reminder of an impending trade war

Weaker US growth in 2024 will pave the way for 'the least bad president,' whom no one truly desires

A short note on the Two Sessions Meeting in Beijing: There is little focus on the economy but much on a massive military buildup. Putin created a big mess for Beijing

French budget deficit highlights the challenges facing the Eurozone. The four largest Eurozone members illustrate the problem for the ECB

China's economy is apparently so weak that a concerned Beijing will do everything possible to avoid a corporate exodus from China

The ECB is set to disappoint the bond market beyond a 'pseudo-policy-rate cut' - unless unemployment increases significantly

German statistics paint a dire picture. The positive aspect is that most voters support dramatic changes - including massive rearmament

The EU Commission survey still highlights why the ECB does not have much room to manoeuvre

There is much talk about the EU's window of opportunity - but one should focus on Russia's 'best choice'. Poland talks about nuclear option

The Eurozone shows marginal signs of improvement. EU leaders face unpopular decisions - a discussion started by the Danish Prime Minister

Chinese house prices continue to fall. How does one filter 'misinformation'?

IFO survey indicates a deeper German recession - and with it comes an inevitable trade war with China

The economic situation in Germany is now so bad that it's time to say goodbye to nostalgia. 'Goodbye SchuldenBremse'

The economic downturn in China's property market is too severe to pursue ideological politics at the moment

A short follow-up to the Eurozone wage statistics for Q4

The primary task of the ECB is to create space for the defence industry. The consequence is lower private consumption - and higher real bond yields

The EU Commission is now paving the way for massive military rearmament. The Weimar Triangle opens up for a European military alliance with Britain without any 'stumbling blocks'

What drives the Japanese stock market? There are many factors, but the primary explanation remains the same

The US labour market will continue to bump against the ceiling in 2024

Western Europe is heading towards a semi-war economy now that politicians understand the gravity of the geopolitical situation. Tight labour markets

The current level of US unemployment and fiscal policy 'out of control' do not support a policy of rate cuts

China's monetary statistics show no signs of an accelerating economy. 'Japanificantion' continues unabatedly

USA: Two-thirds of the US federal deficit is now interest payments. The next administration will be forced to act forcefully to the disadvantage of the EU

The industrial downturn continues in Germany. Policy change in Berlin is needed. ECB's room of maneuvring is limited

A brief note on the Chinese bazooka, which does not exist. Xi Jinping's credibility is at stake

Turkey must now pay the price for Erdogan's failed economic policy. The cleanup is left to others

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