Articles

Avoiding a bearish steepening of the Eurozone yield curve will be challenging

Due to a business trip, there will be no updates on the website Wednesday-Thursday [October 9-10]. Therefore, there will also be no Weekly Newsletter next week

Beijing has chosen an expensive approach without reforms to a structural crisis. The ideological direction remains unchanged

The US Federal Reserve will find it challenging to lower policy rates significantly in 2025

Recession and lack of action in Berlin further fuel AfD's rise in opinion polls. The risk of stagflation in the Eurozone will prevail in 2025

USA: Early and late-leading indicators all point towards a reacceleration in the demand side in the first half of 2025

The Western world faces a prolonged period of supply-side volatility. Central banks' minimum interest rates will be higher than before

Israel views Iran's attack as a welcome 'invitation' to launch comprehensive strikes on Tehran's nuclear weapons programme. Israel sees Iran as an existential threat

Weekly Update - October 3, 2024

EU: Massive infrastructure investments - both public and private - are coming, but the room for manoeuvre is limited. The risk of stagflation is high

Podcast interview with Danish TV2's China correspondent in Beijing: 'It no longer matters whether the cat is black or white as long as it catches mice. It has to be red'

Beijing finally gave in. Now, Berlin needs to remove its blinders to help Germany and the Eurozone

China's extensive 'firefighting' following yet another miscalculation in Beijing. Stimulus measures will be China First and higher commodity prices

Chairman Powell may be on the road to making the next policy mistake - overly optimistic rate cut expectations

Weekly Update - September 26, 2024

China inflates the balloon one week before the 75th anniversary - but fiscal stimulus is, so far, absent

China 'adjusts' to reduce the risk of social unrest, but the direction remains the same. The consequences for the EU will be significant

German Politicians with Blinders Risk Creating Chaos in the EU: The Perfect Outcome is Narrow

The Federal Reserve did the right thing, but it gives food for thought in the bond market

Weekly Update - September 19, 2024

Podcast interview with Jacob Funk Kirkegaard, PIIE and Bruegel: Does the EU have what it takes to avoid falling further behind?

Eurozone: Wage pressure will not disappear. The outcome of the VW labour conflict will be crucial for Germany and the entire EU. Intel cancels factory in Magdeburg

China no longer has wise political leaders - but weak EU leaders continue to fall for old tricks in Beijing

The Eurozone faces chaotic years ahead - and the ECB cannot help much this time. The AfD is looking forward to the 2025 election

Weekly Update - September 12, 2024

In the West, the risk of stagflation is likely more significant than the risk of recession

The final version of the Mid-Year Update Presentation is now available here

The Eurozone and the USA face a complicated period of policy rate cuts

There will be no updates on August 31-September 9 due to vacation

EU: The UN Population Revision 2024 shows even stronger demographic headwinds unless politicians promote rather than hinder the spread of Artificial Intelligence

USA: Falling inflation, a 50 basis points rate cut, and a new growth leg sound almost too good to be true. It is, indeed!

IFO survey: Germany's industry is in deep trouble, but Berlin is still wearing blinders

Germany's Economic Crisis in Slow-Motion: Berlin needs to act decisively before it is too late

Weekly Update - August 22, 2024

Podcast interview with military tech expert Andreas Graae: Does Denmark have the right defence for future military conflicts?

Insightview's perspective on the US Federal Reserve's potential policy shift, recession, the Presidential election, the bond and stock markets

AI, Demographics, and Geopolitics - and What It Means for the Stock Market [article and video]

China: Everything points towards an 'asset price recession' unless stubbornness is replaced by realism in Beijing

Weekly Update - August 15, 2024

The Federal Reserve's path of policy rate cuts and the implications for the bond market

A steepening US yield curve 'assumes' the Federal Reserve will do the 'right thing.' A robust NFIB survey shows why this will not be a classic economic slowdown

State elections in Germany: Sahra Wagenknecht benefits from the 'bookkeeper approach' in Berlin

The impact of AI on the US economy: Is divergence between SP500 market cap and nominal GDP too high?

Weekly Update - August 8, 2024

The US Federal Reserve is likely more nervous than investors due to a significant decline in TIPS inflation expectations

Navigating the market bubble without losing sight of the big picture: ISM service survey brings relief to a nervous stock market

The blinders are off. A different aftermath due to a markedly different environment than in the past

The Bank of Japan, yen repatriation, US 'recession' and 'growth panic': Does 'what did not happen earlier' unfold now? What are the consequences?

A Federal Reserve policy rate cut of 50 basis points instead of 25 basis points cannot be ruled out following a surprisingly weak ISM survey

China's economy: Who speaks up if things go in the wrong direction?

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