Articles

Due to vacation, there will be no updates on July 1-5

China's window of opportunity: A second and last chance to save the relationship with the European Union?

Germany stands out in the June EU business and consumer survey: One threat from Beijing and Olaf Scholz panics

National Rally is poised for a major electoral victory. ECB will bear part of the credit risk for the election promises. What are the consequences of 'French nukes are for France'?

Germany needs - and will be forced to accept - lenient fiscal rules to make Germany and the EU survive

'Recovery' in the US manufacturing sector does not gain traction - but inflationary pressures accelerate. Trump and the risk of recession

Germany's competitiveness faces significant erosion without action

The 'centre holds,' but the Eurozone faces unprecedented economic problems from weak productivity and soaring labour costs

China is in the midst of a balance sheet 'recession': Existing house prices drop at the fastest rate since 2011

Political chaos in France: Marine Le Pen knows the path to power through the front door at the centre, but what happens when she stands in the corridor of power?

Washington will be forced to address a spiralling federal debt - otherwise, the bond market will react accordingly

The game is over for the coalition in Berlin. Germany could soon be forced to call an early election - tomorrow might be too late

USA: The NFIB sentiment survey shows no signs of a weakening labour market. Labour shortages will prevail throughout 2024

A weaker EU at the worst possible time means a higher risk premium. Will Meloni save the EU? What is the outcome of Macron's Russian Roulette?

Chinese trade figures still show signs of a weak domestic economy. The cost of 'de-risking' will be high for China and the EU

ECB decides hawkish monetary easing because it has no other option

What happens if the gap between the ISM and the real economy closes?

The ECB's communication problem: Policy rate cut, service inflation, soaring budget deficits and labour shortages

A Beijing that continues to kick the can down the road and a West that no longer follows Beijing's playbook will not create a self-propelled recovery in China

Western secular challenges: Implications for bond markets, the yield curve and monetary policy

The European Central Bank's main challenge is to increase unemployment

IFO survey: The road to recovery will be a long and arduous process, requiring massive investments in new technology

EU's secular problem - labour shortage - is highly evident in French business surveys

Has the ECB promised too much? Yes, according to German wage statistics and due to a hostile geopolitical environment

Why are commodity prices rising?

Beijing reacts when the CPC is threatened. The real estate sector crisis requires action, but new measures are mostly kicking the can down the road

Due to Whit Monday, there will be no update on May 20

Washington's focus on inflation and the federal budget deficit will soon become the EU's biggest problem as generosity fades

British labour market report underscores European central banks' lack of room for manoeuvre

USA: Demographics, 'significant de-risking', and military build-up will amplify inflationary pressures in the coming quarters and years

'Xi Jinping's China' is becoming more visible on the horizon in the West. This gives rise to concern in the EU

Due to Ascension Day, there will be no update on May 9 and May 10

Germany's many obstacles: Fifth-column activities, Scholz and Christian Lindner stand in the way of voters who support change

The EU faces crucial days and months. The first test is the Xi Jinping visit. The next test: Ukraine's vulnerable eastern front?

A short note on the US employment report and the ISM surveys: A paradigm shift

The US labour market will continue to hit its ceiling without massive increases in productivity

Japan is a 'currency manipulator' - but no one has an interest in telling Tokyo [corrected]

Western central banks face a reality check. Wage inflation will not go away without higher unemployment - but this requires significant tightening

The EU Parliamentary election could prove to be fateful. It will reveal whether a strong centre has the support of the voters

The likelihood of 'significant EU de-risking' away from China is increasing

The Eurozone economy has stalled

The Bank of Japan continues to speak with a forked tongue. This cannot go unpunished for the yen as the US Federal Reserve may not be able to lower interest rates

The ECB would have already cut policy rates multiple times if these were 'normal times'. It is not!

Germany: The IFO survey continues to show improvement - but the risk of 'profound de-risking' away from China is on the rise

A dynamic geopolitical situation could sooner rather than later force the EU to address more aggressively its dependency on China

The aftermath of Scholz's kowtow: Beijing has a problem if the EU proves to have a backbone - and so will many European companies in China

US Philadelphia Fed survey: A new inflation leg is underway in the manufacturing sector

China: 'Impressive' growth number in Q1 if you are wearing blinkers

The missile attack wiped the slate clean for Netanyahu and opened a window of opportunity to target Iran's nuclear weapons program

The underlying details in China's trade statistics continue to show domestic weakness. Scholz headed for another kowtow in Beijing

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