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26. February 2021
USA: Personal income increasing by a strong 10% month-on-month in January propelled household savings to 20.5%. More ammo at the end of the tunnel
The Swedish economy was among the 'star performers' in 2020. The economy is well-positioned to benefit from a global rebound in 2021
What are the main factors behind the bond market sell-off in the last few weeks? Keep the focus on JGBs as the US yield curve steepens
25. February 2021
USA: Durable goods orders gain momentum. More in the pipeline, as long as fiscal stimulus measures do not create crowding-out
EU Commission survey: Euro-zone sentiment recovery is still painfully slow. Industrialists' inflation expectations jump in February
Germany: Consumer sentiment improves, but GfK survey shows that the vaccination process, the reopening process and politics are in disarray
24. February 2021
USA: A strong leading new home sales report shows clear evidence of an economy exposed to 'excessive' stimulus measures. More house price inflation in the pipeline despite higher bond yields
Taiwan: Skyrocketing export orders show clear signs of a broadening global growth acceleration - or more precisely, 'demand acceleration'. No evidence of softening price pressure
France: Manufacturing sentiment improves, but service sentiment drops. Inflation pressure jumps to the highest level since July 2011. More imported inflation in the pipeline
23. February 2021
USA: Consumer confidence improves - and households' inflation expectations increase
A short note on the US bond market sell-off. What comes next?
China: House prices accelerate despite curbs imposed by local authorities, as inventories of unsold homes decline
22. February 2021
Germany: Business sentiment jumps as 'summer is coming' and the vaccination process gains momentum. Inflation pressure in the US adds pressure on the European bond market
19. February 2021
USA: The housing market remains buoyant as policymakers pursue a dangerous strategy of 'let us see what happens'
Britain: The yo-yo pandemic triggers a steep decline in retail sales in January. The fiscal deficit jumps. Business and consumer sentiment increases only slowly in February
Germany: Producer prices jump in January. A much larger increase is in the pipeline in 2021. Is inflation really a problem in Europe?
18. February 2021
USA: Philadelphia Fed survey is a harbinger of steady growth, but inflation expectations skyrocket. The White House is on a path of making a significant policy mistake
Australia: Strong labour market report in January. The recovery is now so robust that Canberra considers rolling back several fiscal support schemes. What about the Aussie dollar?
VIDEO: The case for higher US bond yields - and President Biden's planned public sector projects
17. February 2021
USA: Skyrocketing retail sales and significantly higher inflation at the factory gates require high-level communication skills at the Federal Reserve in 2021
Japan: The 'recovery' continues, according to the latest Reuters Tankan survey. Biden's aggressive policy approach will keep the yen weak in the short run until inflation erodes the real value of the US dollar
16. February 2021
USA: Regional Empire State survey shows skyrocketing inflation pressure at the factory gates
Podcast interview with Flemming Konradsen, Director, School of Global Health, University of Copenhagen, on how to reopen after the lockdown without creating the foundation for the next lockdown
Germany: ZEW economic sentiment index jumps in February close to the highest level since 2004. Inflation expectations are skyrocketing
15. February 2021
Japan: The economy shows strong growth in Q4. Washington could turn into the main growth sponsor for Japanese exporters in 2021
USA: The Biden administration opting for 'whatever it takes' will have profound global consequences further down the road
Podcast interview: 'Boots on the ground'. What is the current situation in China? Steffen Schiottz-Christensen in Chengdu about China's economic recovery, vaccination and the business situation on the mainland
12. February 2021
USA: University of Michigan consumer sentiment index declined in February. Inflation expectations hit the highest since 2014
Britain: The economy closed the miserable year of 2020 down by 9.9%. The long-term outlook remains weak as London does not have the same freedom of 'fiscal irresponsibility' as in Washington
A short note on President Biden's telephone conversation with Xi Jinping
11. February 2021
USA: The federal deficit skyrocketing in January to more than 17% of GDP will not prevent the Biden-administration from doing more of the same 'fiscal experiment' in 2021
Britain: The latest lockdown puts a drag on house prices, but there appear no significant headwinds in the short run
10. February 2021
USA: Moderate inflation in January, but price pressure is building in many parts of the global supply chain
France: The manufacturing sector stumbled in December. France now pays the price of having made several mistakes since 2008
China: Lunar New Year distortion and food import add downward pressure on consumer prices. Factory prices on the rise. Asset price inflation is Beijing's biggest challenge
9. February 2021
USA: NFIB small business sentiment survey shows a steep increase in output prices - a harbinger of higher inflation
Italy: Mario Draghi will not make a difference in Rome because this time he does not have the mandate to do 'whatever it takes'. He has only one attempt
China: 'January aberration' boosts lending, but the liquidity situation is tight, as Beijing does 'whatever it takes' to prevent asset price bubbles
Australia: Business confidence stays close to the highest level since May 2018. No signs yet of aggressive spending in the mining sector will support commodity prices
8. February 2021
Spain: Industrial production contracted in 2020 at the fastest rate since 2009. Madrid needs the ECB more than ever if US bond yields are on the rise
Japan: Economy Watcher Survey continues to show falling sentiment. 'Economic mitigation countries' have no plan-B if new variants force health authorities to launch a new vaccination program - except 'mitigation'
5. February 2021
USA: The January labour market report disappoints as yet another Covid19 wave causes havoc. More fiscal support in the pipeline
USA: What do the short-term and long-term economic indicators say about the economy? The message is strong if  central banks manipulate the yield curve
Germany: Industrial orders dragged down by a significant decline in Euro-zone demand
4. February 2021
Euro-zone: Retail sales fell by only 1.2% in 2020. A big shift in consumption is in the pipeline from Q2
3. February 2021
USA: ISM service survey heralds robust growth, employment and higher inflation in Q2 and beyond
Euro-zone: January inflation exceeds market expectations - but the 'real boost' to inflation will come in Q2
Australia: Zero-tolerance Covid19  strategy, combined with aggressive fiscal stimulus measures, is a recipe of strong growth and inflation 
China: Caixin service PMI index drops to the lowest since April 2020, as clusters of coronavirus outbreaks impact consumer behaviour
Podcast interview with Jens Larsson, St. Petri Capital, about the 'GameStop short squeeze' and the broader implications
2. February 2021
Euro-zone: The economy contracts by 6.8% in 2020. A strong rebound in Q2 and Q3 will be followed by weakness in 2022
1. February 2021
USA: ISM manufacturing index drops from an elevated level, but inflation pressure jumps again to the highest level since 2011
Sweden: Inflation pressure at the factory gates jumps to the highest level since 2004, according to the leading January PMI survey
China: New Covid19 outbreaks hit service sentiment, in particular, and manufacturing sentiment. Lunar New Year travellers are  told to stay home
29. January 2021
USA: Household income continues to grow during yet another Covid19 wave. Accumulated household savings hit $1650 billion in 2020
The European Central Bank is giving and giving, but fiscal policy is the only 'efficient' tool left
France: The economy 'performed' better than expected in the last quarter of 2020, but the outlook remains grim after an expected rebound in Q2 and Q3
28. January 2021
USA: Covid19 puts a drag on growth in the last quarter of 2020 - more weakness in Q1, but the economy will recover faster than Europe
EU Commission survey: New lockdowns and Brussels' catastrophic handling of vaccine purchases hit consumer sentiment in January
South Korea: Export sentiment jumps to the highest level since 2011, according to the leading Bank of Korea business sentiment survey
27. January 2021
USA: Private corporate spending remains far below what has been forecast by most forward-looking indicators
France: Consumer confidence declines as Paris considers to impose the third lockdown. Europe's political leaders will soon be tested as people's nerves are on edge
Germany: Consumer sentiment collapses as Berlin considers extending the lockdown
China: Industrial profits soar as Beijing's successful handling of the pandemic creates problems for the central bank
26. January 2021
USA: The Conference Board consumer survey indicates short-term pain and tentative signs of long-term gains, as the share of vaccinated is close to 6%
Brazil: 'My country is broke,' says President Bolsonaro, having bought voters during the pandemic. Bolsonaro's approval rating plunges
Britain: November unemployment rate hit the highest level since July 2016. Retailer sentiment collapses in January to a level not seen since April 2020
EU: The 'failed' vaccination process could turn into dangerous political headwinds fuelling EU-sceptics unless Brussels pulls itself together
South Korea: Strong Q4 growth report. 'Thank you for the support, USA and EU'
25. January 2021
Germany: IFO survey disappoints due to a broad-based decline in future expectations. Manufacturing current conditions index remains upbeat
22. January 2021
USA: The housing market continued to stay upbeat in December despite soaring prices, but the bond market will create headwinds in from Q2
The video version of The Outlook 2021 is now available
Britain: Several tsunamis have hit the shore. Consumer and business sentiment drops, and the budget deficit soars
21. January 2021
USA: A buoyant regional Philadelphia Fed survey is only the tip of the iceberg in an over-stimulated economy
France: Insee survey shows broad-based improvement in sentiment, but the 'recovery' will be bumpy
Japan: The export sector improves but is lagging Taiwan and South Korea
20. January 2021
China-EU investment deal
Taiwan: Export orders skyrocket at the fastest rate since April 2010 by courtesy of the 'economic mitigation countries'. More to come, according to the Economy Ministry
Germany: Inflation at the factory gates surprises to the upside as higher prices on intermediate goods and raw materials hit the shore
19. January 2021
Germany: ZEW survey looks through 'temporary' Covid19 problems. Inflation expectations skyrocketed in January
Podcast interview with Joergen Bager, Senior Director of Market Operations at LEGO Group in China, about B2C and the Chinese consumer
18. January 2021
Japan Reuters Tankan survey: Service sentiment takes a beating while manufacturing confidence jumps in January
China: The recovery continued in Q4, but headwinds from a new Covid19 wave could hit growth in Q1, as households react immediately to the newsflow
Germany: The CDU opting for status quo does not eliminate the risk of political rivalry when Angela Merkel steps down
15. January 2021
USA: Manufacturing output continues bouncing back. Capital spending plans are on the rise. Empire State survey is a harbinger of higher inflation
USA: Retail sales decline in December as the pandemic continues to put a lid on growth
China: House price inflation moderates in December as tightening measures put a drag on house prices
14. January 2021
China: The 'economic mitigation countries' supported Chinese exporters in December. More to come in Q2 assuming there are no surprises from new Covid19 variants
Is inflation on the rise? Yes, by courtesy of policymakers who, once again, kicked the can down the road
13. January 2021
Italy: The manufacturing rebound slows at the same time as politics in Rome is back to 'normal' - political turmoil
The CDU-leader contest could turn into the most decisive moment in European politics in 2021 if Friedrich Merz is elected the next party leader
12. January 2021
USA: Small business sentiment falls sharply, as a new Covid19 wave dents the economic outlook, according to the NFIB
Japan: Service sentiment plunges as a more aggressive third wave of Covid19 emerges. The pandemic leaves Japan with the same problem but in a worse situation to mitigate headwinds
11. January 2021
Spain: The economy is losing steam. The vaccination process will be too slow to save the tourist season in 2021
China: Inflation normalises. It may be difficult for Beijing to keep their arms down. Insurrection in Washington and 'economic mitigation' in favour of Chinese exports. Can it get much better?
8. January 2021
USA: The Covid19 pandemic out of control hits the service sector hard in today's employment report
7. January 2021
USA: Soaring service sentiment despite no end to the pandemic. A significant bond market sell-off is in the pipeline
EU business and consumer survey: The rebound is on track but much weaker than in the United States
VIDEO: China's digital RMB - Beijing's view
Germany: Industrial orders jump in November. Growth will accelerate in Q2 unless South African and Romanian virus variants succeed in derailing the vaccination program
6. January 2021
USA: Weak ADP Employment Report is only one more argument for aggressive fiscal policy, according to the Democrats
The Outlook 2021 slides presentation
USA: The Georgia election could turn into the beginning of a larger bond market sell-off - and boosts the probability of more regulation of the tech sector
5. January 2021
USA: Manufacturing sentiment bounces back. Inflation pressure skyrockets in December by courtesy of the 'economic mitigation strategy'
Germany: Strong retail sales in November - more to come in Q2. Until then, Germany and the rest of Europe face the longest winter in living memory
4. January 2021
China: PMI survey continues to show robust growth. 'Jack Ma' is just yet another tycoon disappearing on the mainland
Sweden: Manufacturing sentiment jumps to the highest since 2010. Inflation pressure at the factory gates skyrockets
Significant pent-up demand from 'economic mitigation' - and more 'pent-up demand' to come in Q1 due to a failed Covid19 strategy in Europe and the United States
18. December 2020
The last date of updates in 2020 is on December 18. The first date of updates in 2021 is on 4 January
Germany: IFO survey was upbeat 'before' the decision of yet another national lockdown
A short note on what comes after 'the last hurdle' in the Covid19 pandemic
17. December 2020
USA: Philadelphia Fed survey heralds weaker-than-expected recovery in 2021
France: Service sentiment bounces back as the 'second wave' collapses. The 'yo-yo pandemic' will create a new wave in January. Macron has tested positive for Covid19
16. December 2020
USA: Upbeat consumer sentiment was not reflected in the November retail sales report. The case for significant fiscal stimulus measures is building
A short note on the US dollar and the euro: Short-term US dollar weakness to be followed by significant strength in the second half of 2021
Japan: The export sector disappoints significantly in November. Successful vaccines come too late to provide help in the coming months
15. December 2020
USA: The Empire State manufacturing survey shows a steep jump in price expectations
China: The economy continues gaining momentum, as Beijing still seems to be in control of the pandemic, according to sources
14. December 2020
Euro-zone: Industrial output bounces back sharply in October, but the rebound stalls according to forward-looking indicators. ECB is far more aggressive than the Federal Reserve
Podcast interview with Professor Torben M Andersen, former chairman of the Danish government's advisory Covid19 group: What have we learned from the pandemic? [LANGUAGE: DANISH]
China: Tight monetary policy puts a drag on house prices
Japan: The Bank of Japan's quarterly Tankan survey shows improvement in corporate sentiment, but spending plans remain downbeat
11. December 2020
USA: Household sentiment jumps in December even though daily Covid19 cases hit 210,000
USA: The current price environment is neither too hot nor too cold, but inflation pressure is building
10. December 2020
Britain: The economic rebound has stalled. There are far too many unsolved issues
9. December 2020
Australia: Consumer sentiment jumps to the highest level since 2010 as a successful Covid19 strategy benefits the economy and the people
Germany: The rebound in the export sector disappoints - and the outlook continues to deteriorate
China: Soaring imported supply of pork and meat makes consumer prices decline in November. Factory gate prices headed towards a sharp increase in 2021
8. December 2020
USA: The NFIB small business sentiment index fell in November. The six-month outlook plunged. Georgia runoff election could trigger bond market sell-off
Japan: The Economy Watcher index falls sharply in December after the 'third wave' of Covid19 inflates to a new record high
7. December 2020
Germany: Industrial output jumps in October, but Covid19 could trigger a double-dip recession
China benefits strongly from the failure to handle Covid19 in Europe and the United States - but secular headwinds will gain momentum in the coming years
4. December 2020
USA: The November employment report disappoints as a new Covid19 wave hits the shores. The wave will get even larger going into January
Germany: The rebound in industrial orders boosted by non-Euro-zone orders and strong demand for autos. IFO survey heralds short-term weakness
3. December 2020
USA: ISM service sentiment survey seems overly optimistic considering that the country faces the worst ever test of its healthcare system in the coming months
Euro-zone: Strong retail sales in October supported by pent-up demand and 'opening up'. Second thoughts in Berlin about Covid19 mitigation costs after yet another 'lock-down'
Turkey: Skyrocketing inflation in November makes leeway for another rate hike. President Erdogan is a case study of 'what not to do'
2. December 2020
Australia: Protecting the economy and the health of the people places the country among the top four in the world in 2020
Germany: Household spending skyrockets in October based on pent-up demand, but most German consumers face the 'mother of all headwinds' in 2021
1. December 2020
USA: Manufacturing sentiment declines in November but stays at an elevated level, as the economy is still exposed to unprecedented stimulus measures
Euro-zone: Deflationary pressure prevailed in November - at least according to the consumer basket used before the coronavirus outbreak. The picture could change rapidly
The Swiss economy bounces back sharply in Q3 to the relief of the world's biggest hedge fund, SNB
30. November 2020
Turkey: President Erdogan used all ammo to boost growth in Q3. Now comes skyrocketing Covid19 cases, higher policy rates - and Erdogan is still around
Japan: Highly efficient vaccines will reinforce the economic rebound, but the response to Covid19 has made 'old problems' even worse
PMI survey: China benefits from its Covid19 strategy and the failure of Europe and the US, which will be reinforced by surprisingly efficient vaccines
27. November 2020
EU survey: Service sentiment takes a beating before the next Covid19 wave in January - but export sentiment improves
China: Industrial profits jump as most engines are running - but do not get too excited as demographics is a much stronger headwind than assessed by many investors
26. November 2020
Germany: Consumer sentiment drops as the aftermath of Covid19 has just started despite several successful vaccines have emerged
More evidence of a slow supply-side response to aggressive 'economic mitigation' boosts the possibility of an inflation surprise in 2021
25. November 2020
USA: New home sales remain buoyant. A low inventory level of unsold homes indicates the strongest 'wealth effect' since 1980
USA: The economy is over-stimulated although Covid19 will create headwinds in November-January. Inflation could radically change the environment in 2021
South Korea: Business sentiment jumps in November. Export sentiment skyrockets to the highest since 2011 supported by China and 'economic mitigation' in Europe and the United States
24. November 2020
USA: Consumer confidence expectations decline in November, as the 'third wave' of Covid19 hits the shores
Germany: Manufacturing sentiment improves while service sentiment takes a beating in November
France: The second wave of Covid19 hits service business sentiment. This is 'history', as highly efficient vaccines 'saved the world', according to investors
23. November 2020
By Invitation: Time is up for Xi Jinping to make China greener
Asia: South Korean and Taiwanese statistics show a strong rebound in export activity
Euro-zone: High-efficacy vaccines have radically changed the game in the financial market, but Europe could face the most challenging wave in January
20. November 2020
Japan: Deflation prevails as the rebound remains weak. Tokyo faces a complicated inflation-versus-deflation scenario
19. November 2020
USA: Philadelphia Fed survey stays upbeat, as companies see beyond what could turn out to be the longest 'winter' within living memory
Business sentiment takes another beating as Britain 'cannot even see the tunnel'
Australia: A buoyant labour market provides a lesson to Europe and the United States - but it comes too late
18. November 2020
USA: Policymakers boosts housing demand, which creates short-term inflation as the supply-side is reluctant to react. The risk is, perversely, significant deflationary pressure from 2022
Japan: Chinese and US demand boost exports in October, but exporters face headwinds from a tough 'winter' in Europe and the United States
17. November 2020
There will only be delayed updates on November 17-18 due to the China webinar
16. November 2020
USA: Regional Empire State survey shows that investors and monetary policymakers should forget about the risk of deflation
Japan: Private consumption and net-exports propel the economy higher in Q3, but corporate spending shrinks
China: The economy gained momentum in October, as President Trump helped Beijing making 'China great again'. The world's biggest free-trade deal signed this weekend
13. November 2020
US households face tough months ahead as the third wave of the coronavirus hits the shore more forcefully than in H1. There is no Covid19 strategy until January 20
USA: The federal deficit jumps in October boosted by soaring Covid19-related spending and the Trump tax cuts in 2017
12. November 2020
Euro-zone: A weak industrial report in September. A vaccine will not prevent a stop-and-go economy, as Covid19 will take a heavy toll until April-May
Japan: Falling machinery orders in September are a huge disappointment. Japan's and the global business sector want to 'see more' before boosting investments. This could close the output gap faster than expected in several sectors
Britain: The economy bounces back in Q3, but the UK remains among the worst-performing countries in 2020. 'Covid19 mutation' is 'skyrocketing public sector debt'
11. November 2020
The only difference between Turkey and Brazil is that President Erdogan finally acknowledges his big policy mistakes. Do not expect Bolsonaro to do the same
USA: Joe Biden won the election, but time is with Donald Trump, at least until January 5, as the Republicans need him in Georgia's run-off election
China faces 'monetary tightening' caused by its own success and the 'failure' of Europe and the United States. Monetary exit talk is premature
Australia benefits strongly from a 'close to zero-tolerance' strategy and aggressive global easing - but Beijing widens 'trade embargo'
10. November 2020
USA: Small business sentiment remains highly upbeat - even before yesterday's positive vaccine news
Germany: ZEW survey shows that Europe is headed towards trouble without a 'mass-distributed' vaccine tomorrow - and not in April 2021
China: Consumer prices decline due to imported pork and meat supply, but no signs of 'core deflation'
9. November 2020
The beginning of the end for the Erdogan dynasty? A fired central bank governor and the President's son-in-law resigning make the lira rally
Japan: Manufacturing sentiment bounces back strongly in October, but service sentiment remains significantly below the pre-Covid19 level. Unwinding short-Japan-stock-market strategy
China: Exporters are among the main beneficiaries of the 'economic mitigation' strategy in Europe and the United States
6. November 2020
USA: The rebound in the labour market was stronger than market expectations in  October - but there is still a long way to go
Germany: Industrial production report disappoints. Hard data fails to show what is outlined by soft data. When will policymakers focus on the problem, a virus?
5. November 2020
USA: Weekly jobless claims report remains a harbinger of a strong October employment report on Friday
Sweden: The economy bounces back nicely in Q3. A strong fiscal position makes the country well-prepared for a bumpy 2021
Germany: Industrial orders lost momentum in September, but the outlook remains positive, according to IFO
4. November 2020
USA: ISM service sentiment survey disappoints shortly before the election. Today, the situation is no better than two days ago
USA: ADP Employment report disappoints significantly considering a sharp decline in the weekly 'continued jobless claims' number
Spain: Public hiring and the furlough scheme are not enough to support the labour market. Daily Covid19 cases have doubled within two weeks
A short note on the not yet clarified US election: The outcome is a catastrophe for Joe Biden and the Democratic Party considering heavy headwinds for President Trump in the form of Covid19
China: Private service sentiment index jumps in October. Jack Ma is 'reprimanded' after sticking his neck out too often
3. November 2020
Turkey: Skyrocketing inflation at the factory gates bodes ill for consumer price inflation and the lira in the coming months by courtesy of President Erdogan
2. November 2020
USA: ISM manufacturing index jumps in October. The orders index skyrocketed to the highest level since January 2004
A short note on the next leg of the Covid19 storyboard: A peak in November makes leeway for the next wave by mid-January
China: The economy shows no signs of slowing, according to the official as well as the private PMI surveys. Beijing provides hints of what the next five-year plan might include
30. October 2020
Japan: The manufacturing sector bounces back, but headwinds prevail. Global risk-off could lead to sharp yen appreciation and, consequently, a steep sell-off in the stock market
Germany: A robust recovery in Q3, but the second wave of Covid19 has now hit the shore and triggered a new 'national lockdown'
France: The economy bounces back strongly in Q3 propelled by policymakers' one and only 'plan A' - but there is no 'plan B' to fight the next leg in the Covid19 storyboard
29. October 2020
USA: The economy bounced back sharply in Q3 supported by strong private consumption and inventories. The next leg of a still untamed coronavirus will hit growth and the stock market in the coming months
Euro-zone: The manufacturing sector adjusting to Covid19 will no longer be enough to mitigate the impact of a suffering service sector
South Korea: Manufacturing and service sentiment jumps in October, as the country sacrifices 'privacy' to fight a pandemic
28. October 2020
Spain needs significant financial support, but this will be an uphill struggle as rich EU-members face their own Covid19 problems
Sweden: Economic sentiment improves in October, but 'what happened one week ago is old news' in Covid19 times
27. October 2020
USA: The Conference Board consumer survey shows an improving 'present situation' but falling expectations. Households' assessment of the labour market improves markedly
USA: Corporate spending continues to disappoint despite upbeat spending plans
Euro-zone: The ECB takes the lead in the global money-printing competition. This could weaken the 'euro-bull case'
South Korea: The economy bounces back in Q3, but the outlook is weak
26. October 2020
USA: The September new home sales report disappoints, but a low supply of unsold houses will continue to add upward pressure on existing home prices
Turkey: The costs of creating a rebound have been huge. Foreign exchange reserves are at the lowest level since 2005
Germany: IFO business survey shows a sharp decline in service sentiment while manufacturing sentiment improves
23. October 2020
USA: Existing home prices skyrocketing at the fastest rate since 2005 propelled by aggressive monetary easing
22. October 2020
Britain: CBI Trends survey gives rise to some optimism were it not for the fact that daily Covid19 cases tripled in the last two weeks
The case for selling the stock market
France: Service sentiment takes a beating as new Covid19 cases are skyrocketing
Germany: Households are losing confidence in the long-term outlook for the economy, according to the GFK consumer survey. Daily Covid19 cases jump above 11,000
21. October 2020
Britain: Fiscal deficit in September hits the highest level since 1993, as tensions between Sunak and Johnson emerge
20. October 2020
USA: Housing starts report disappoints, but the outlook remains strong. Be aware of fiscal policymakers changing policy stance after the November election
Taiwan: The details in a strong export orders report are, to no small extent, a reflection of different Covid19 strategies around the world
China: House price increases cool as regulators impose rules to put a lid on prices. Capital searching high and low for return will support the housing market in the short to medium term
19. October 2020
WEBINAR: Beijing's new assertiveness. A new reality for investors and companies in the new world order
China: Strong imports put a lid on Q3 GDP growth as a 'successful' Covid19 strategy boosts domestic demand
16. October 2020
USA: Manufacturing output report in September disappoints significantly despite buoyant soft data
USA: Retail sales jump in September as the economy is exposed to the biggest stimulus wave since the Second World War
15. October 2020
USA: Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey maintains an upbeat short and long-term outlook. New orders index hits the highest level ever recorded
The second leg of Covid19 will test policymakers in the United States and Europe whose 'plan A' is based on 'economic mitigation' and a vaccine 'tomorrow' - but 'mitigation' will not make a virus go away
China: Falling food inflation puts a lid on consumer price inflation. Deflation still prevails at the factory gates
14. October 2020
China: Monetary statistics report shows that shadow banking has been the main credit facilitator during Covid19. Yuan appreciation makes leeway for more monetary easing
Australia: Consumer sentiment jumps as a prudent and more efficient Covid19-strategy pays off
13. October 2020
USA: Small business sentiment jumps in September. Inflation will soon make a comeback, according to NFIB
Britain: Poorly-educated workers and Prime Minister Johnson face trouble as 'job support scheme' comes to an end. The hangover from the rebound efforts will be painful
China: The details in the September trade report show a solid recovery based, to a large extent, on 'feeling safe' rather than 'mitigation'. All of Qingdao's nine million citizens to be Covid19-tested
12. October 2020
China is forced to join the global bandwagon of money-printing even though such a policy is not yet required
Podcast interview: What comes next when Angela Merkel steps down in 2021? Learn more about Germany's political landscape in this interview with Moritz Schramm, Associate Professor
9. October 2020
Until recently, Italy has handled the aftermath of the first wave better than Spain. This may be changing
Britain: The rebound is losing steam due to serious human-made policy-mistakes. New Covid19 cases are skyrocketing
8. October 2020
Germany: August trade report shows a stronger-than-market-expected rebound. Berlin reacts as the 'second wave of Covid19' has started
Japan: Economy Watchers Survey shows a sharp rebound in service sentiment as 'new hope' replaces 'old hope' as Prime Minister ' and deflationary pressure supports consumer sentiment
7. October 2020
Britain: Monetary policymakers sponsor soaring house prices, but the underlying economic momentum remains weak
Spain will soon need more help from Brussels, as Madrid's Covid19 strategy has failed big time. Is Italy headed in the same direction?
6. October 2020
USA: President Trump succeeded in deflating the trade deficit with China. Nonetheless, the overall deficit hit a new all-time high in August
Germany: Industrial orders jump in August as the country benefits from the reopening of Europe and the fact that Berlin remains in control of Covid19
5. October 2020
USA: Service sentiment rose in September as the economy faces tailwinds from fiscal and monetary policy
Euro-zone: Belgium and Germany boost retail sales in August. A bumpy road lies ahead
Turkey: Soaring inflation at the factory gates spell trouble for consumer price inflation. Ankara could soon face Russia in an escalating Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict
2. October 2020
USA: September employment report shows a decline in the pace of improvement shortly ahead of the 'second wave' of Covid19
The 'Divided States of America' face a bumpy road, whoever gets elected in November
1. October 2020
USA: ISM manufacturing index declined in September but remains buoyant as Covid19 triggered a prescription of 'healing medicine' to the stock market and the corporate sector
Sweden benefits from European and US efforts to mitigate the impact of Covid19. This could backfire in 2021
Bank of Japan's quarterly survey shows a significantly weaker rebound than in most other countries
30. September 2020
Switzerland: Economic Barometer index jumps to the highest level since June 2010, as the economy faces several tailwinds - at least for now
China: The official manufacturing and service PMI surveys show a strengthening economic rebound. President Xi Jinping does not look back
USA: Consumer confidence index jumps in September supported by an unprecedentedly aggressive fiscal and monetary approach to an underestimated virus. There is no 'plan B'
Podcast interview with Jens Eskelund, Vice President of the European Chamber in China, about the situation for European companies in China
29. September 2020
Spain: The rebound in retail sales continues, but new Covid19 cases hit a new all-time high
Euro-zone: EU survey continues to show an economic rebound on track as unprecedented stimulus measures create 'very expensive' growth
By Invitation: Xi Jinping's response to complex challenges - China's 14th 5-year plan on the way
28. September 2020
China: Industrial profits remain on a path of getting closer to 'normalisation'. The Communist Party tightens its grip on the private sector
25. September 2020
US durable goods orders report disappoints despite a sharp rebound in the best forward-looking indicators
Britain: Indecisive Covid19 strategy keeps consumer confidence at a depressed level. A second wave could create the right environment for a double-dip recession
24. September 2020
USA: Money-printing will propel US house prices much higher in the coming months, as unsold 'new homes' hit a new all-time low
Germany: IFO survey shows a sharp increase in manufacturing sentiment, but a new wave of Covid19 could soon pull the service sector into a 'downswing'
France: Manufacturing sentiment improves but the service sector faces significant headwinds from a 'second wave' of Covid19 exceeding the peak in April
23. September 2020
Germany: Consumer sentiment barely improves in 'October' as European countries face a bumpier road due to Covid19 fatigue
22. September 2020
USA: The Federal Reserve's 'rescue mission' propels home sales higher and not least house prices
Britain: The misery continues, according to the September CBI Industrial Trends survey
EU: Dutch consumer confidence survey does not give rise to optimism. There is no 'plan B' to fill the gap from now to an efficient vaccine is distributed in 2021
21. September 2020
Strong Taiwanese export orders report shows, yet again, that a 'zero-tolerance Covid19 strategy' seems, so far, to have been the most successful
Covid19 pulls Japan back into the deflation zone
18. September 2020
USA: Consumer sentiment bounces back at a painfully slow pace supported by an improving labour market and a slowing trend in Covid19 cases. This could soon change because a second wave might be in the pipeline
Britain: Retail sales bounce back, as a 'second wave' hits the shore - and might soon turn into a more forceful wave because a new 'national lock-down' is out of the question
Podcast interview with Christine Stabell Benn, Professor in Global Health at the University of Southern Denmark, about 'fast-track' Covid19 vaccines and other tools in the toolbox [FREE ACCESS]
17. September 2020
USA: Philadelphia Fed survey shows tentative signs of a manufacturing sector becoming 'slightly more self-propelled'. Corporate spending plans on the rise
Global macroeconomic chart update
USA: The NAHB homebuilder index jumps to the highest level since 1998 as Covid19 fuels the housing market
16. September 2020
US retail sales in August continue to bounce back, but progress is slowing. The rebound has far from turned self-propelled
Japan: Exports would have been much weaker without robust Chinese demand in August. Prime Minister Suga is a transition-figure
15. September 2020
USA: Industrial production is slowly moving back on track, but deflationary pressure will soon disappear
Germany: ZEW investor sentiment hits the highest level since February 2001
China's economic rebound continues as Beijing tries to keep the powder dry for more stimulus measures in 2021
14. September 2020
Euro-zone: The manufacturing rebound continues but will soon face headwinds. Deflation in 2020 will be followed by 'mild inflation' and it ends up with yet another round of useless deflation
China: House prices remain on an upward trend supported by several factors, not least capital 'prevented' from going abroad
Japan: Reuters Tankan survey shows painfully slow progress, while Prime Abe is expected to be succeeded by his clone
11. September 2020
Spain: The rebound in the manufacturing sector was stronger-than-expected in July - but Covid19 will not go away 'despite money-printing'
China: Monetary statistics show no signs of aggressive easing, but there are still many unanswered questions about the country's future direction - corrected
Britain: The economy continues bouncing back in July, as the economy 'reopens'. New daily Covid19 cases soar and Labour closes the gap in the latest opinion polls
10. September 2020
USA: Deflation pressure prevails in 2020, but the case for 'mild inflation' in 2021 is building sponsored by central banks 'cutting corners'
Italy: Industrial output bounces back faster-than-market-expectations, as the 'play button' has not yet been pressed in Europe
Britain: Three factors propel house prices higher, ironically, at the same time as British households face tremendous headwinds
9. September 2020
China: Inflation pressure declines in August. China could play an important adverse role for US and European households' real purchasing power in 2021 and beyond
8. September 2020
Brazil: President Bolsonaro combining 'national' and 'socialist' propels his approval rating significantly higher but spells trouble for the country
‌German exporters face a highly chaotic future as Berlin speaking with a forked tongue is now backfiring
Japan: Economy Watchers Survey heralds a strong rebound in consumer spending, but this is contradicted by a weak Reuters Tankan survey
7. September 2020
Germany: Industrial production disappoints in July, but August and September will turn out to be very strong. Nonetheless, several dark clouds are on the horizon
China: Exports recover as Beijing 'cheats' President Trump thoroughly
4. September 2020
US August employment report shows a slower rate of improvement despite aggressive fiscal and monetary easing
Germany: Industrial orders bounce back at a slower-than-expected pace, but more short-term strength is in the pipeline
3. September 2020
USA: ISM service survey continues to herald a very strong Q3 GDP growth report, but the economy has not yet turned into a self-propelled recovery
2. September 2020
Britain: House prices soar to a new record high 'despite', or maybe 'because of', Covid19
Australia: The economy plunges into recession in Q2. Nonetheless, the country remains in an excellent position reinforced by 'unoriginal' policymakers in Europe and the United States
Covid19 has reinforced the decline of 'market forces' sponsored by central banks. Western policymakers prioritise 'mitigating the impact' rather than solving the problem
1. September 2020
USA: Manufacturing sentiment continues to surprise to the upside as the economy is fuelled by fiscal as well as monetary stimulus measures
Euro-zone: The first wave of Covid19 is 'deflationary'. The second wave is 'mild inflation' but without compensation for workers
Euro-zone: Public finances absorb the negative employment impact of Covid19 assuming the virus outbreak is a short-term phenomenon
Sweden: PMI survey underscores that the European economy might ride the storm in 2020 better-than-expected. Berlin revises its growth outlook
31. August 2020
Japan: Strong rebound in industrial output in July, but consumer confidence declines. The Bank of Japan inflates its balance sheet at the fastest rate ever recorded
China: The official PMI survey shows that the economy is closer to normalisation as 'zero-tolerance' Covid19 strategy proves a success
28. August 2020
Spain faces an uphill struggle. Therefore, the ECB will keep 'printing' and the northern states will be forced to 'keep giving' until something gives in
Switzerland: KOF economic sentiment index skyrockets to the highest level since 2010. Strong Chinese demand for luxury products
Euro-zone: Business sentiment skyrockets while consumer confidence and sentiment in the periphery are lagging
Germany: Consumer sentiment drops, but pent-up demand is strong after a sharp increase in Q2 savings. The political situation could deteriorate significantly in 2021 ahead of the Bundestag election
27. August 2020
The ECB creates the foundation for higher conventional and asset price inflation - and with only a few protests
France: Business sentiment skyrockets in August - but households could face headwinds in 2021 as the risk of 'inflation without compensation' is on the rise
China: Industrial profits bounce back propelled by higher margins and without the same aggressive stimulus measures as in Europe and the United States
26. August 2020
USA: Durable goods orders bouncing back will see more support from a central bank worried about a 'second wave' of Covid19
The Bank of Korea's monthly business sentiment survey continues to show recovery in sentiment, but hard data is still lagging
France: A half-hearted Covid19-strategy lays the foundation for returning outbreaks - and, therefore, no improvement in consumer sentiment
25. August 2020
USA: New home sales soar propelled by money-printing and Covid19, but consumer confidence falls sharply as policymakers fail to focus on health safety
Turkey: The economic rebound is too weak and the risk of significantly higher inflation is on the rise as the lira has gone into a tailspin
Germany: IFO survey continues to show improvement in sentiment as households and companies adapt to a new environment - reinforced by aggressive fiscal and monetary easing
Podcast interview with Jorgen Delman, China Studies, Copenhagen University, about how to handle relations with China without compromising our own ideals. Is Xi Jinping facing more internal opposition? [FREE ACCESS]
21. August 2020
Britain: Catastrophic CBI industrial survey underscores what lies ahead for an economy facing several shocks
European and US households will soon pay the real price of having rescued the stock market: Inflation without compensation
20. August 2020
USA: The regional manufacturing Philadelphia Fed survey shows a rebound losing steam. The same applies to the weekly jobless claims statistics
Taiwan continues riding high as if nothing has happened. Export orders statistics bode well for global trade except for Japan
Falling Dutch consumer confidence index underscores why Europe needs a smarter and more aggressive approach to Covid19. The union needs to prepare for the 'unlikely' outcome that an 'efficient' vaccine does not emerge
19. August 2020
Japan: Neither hard nor soft data give rise for much optimism. Core machinery orders fell much faster-than-expected in June
18. August 2020
USA: Housing starts and permits skyrocket in July as the housing market is yet again the main beneficiary of an external shock
Japan: A disappointing Reuters Tankan survey reduces the probability of a sharp rebound in economic activity in Q3
17. August 2020
Podcast interview with Anders Ellemann Kristensen in Beijing, General Manager, Albatros Travel China, about the reopening process, state-capitalism and how to profit from China in the future [FREE ACCESS]
USA: Buoyant NAHB homebuilders index and a weak manufacturing Empire State survey
Japan: Real economic activity collapses to a level not seen since Prime Minister Abe took office in 2012
14. August 2020
USA: Upbeat investor and business sentiment is not yet reflected in a downbeat University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey
USA: July retail sales report heralds a sharp rebound in Q3, but the economy needs to handle a 'second wave'
Germany has no choice but to preserve the EMU, whatever it takes, as Berlin is sitting on a ticking bomb. Full debt-sharing seems inevitable
China: The economic rebound loses momentum, but Xi Jinping remains self-confident about the superiority of state-capitalism
13. August 2020
USA: Weekly jobless claims statistics indicate the 'pace of improvement' in the labour market to slow
USA: July federal budget report provides insight into what a Biden-Harris administration might do after the election in November
Unwind the short-Japanese-stocks strategy
12. August 2020
USA: July CPI-report shows tentative signs of inflation making a comeback. The foundation for significantly higher inflation in 2021 is building, but price pressure will remain benign in 2020
Euro-zone: Industrial activity bounces back sharply in June, but Covid19 could make more trouble in the last quarter of 2020
Britain: The economy plummeted in Q2, but June statistics and forward-looking indicators give rise for 'some optimism'
Fiscal and monetary policymakers act as if there is no tomorrow - and barely anyone opposes the approach
11. August 2020
USA: Small business sentiment remains buoyant supported by fiscal and monetary policymakers going berserk
Germany: Investor sentiment jumps to the highest level since 2004
A sharp drop in the Economy Watchers survey's 'future conditions index' underscores the vulnerability of the Japanese economy and stock market
10. August 2020
China: A benign inflation picture, a successful Covid19 strategy and more than 150 million domestic tourists staying home benefit the economy
US employment report: The failure to control the first wave of Covid19 puts a drag on the reopening process
25. July 2020
Vacation: There will be no updates from July 25 to August 9 due to vacation
24. July 2020
‌‌Italy is not too big to fail; Italy is too big to save
Britain: Retail sales bounce back strongly in June, but household sentiment remains depressed
The global growth outlook deteriorates: 'First wave', 'second wave' and geopolitical risks creating massive headwinds to an overpriced global stock market
23. July 2020
USA: Weekly jobless claims show slowing progress in the labour market as the basis for unprecedented fiscal stimulus measures cracks
Germany: Consumer confidence skyrockets as households see a contained virus outbreak and unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus measures
France: Service sentiment skyrockets in July but no signs of a rebound in export optimism
South Korea: The economy contracts at the fastest pace since 1998 as a successful Covid19 strategy does not make the economy immune
22. July 2020
USA: Existing home sales bounce back supported by historically low mortgage rates
The global stock market discounting an 'efficient, reliable and fast-track' vaccine in 2020 leaves no room for growth disappointment
21. July 2020
A short note on the EU recovery deal
20. July 2020
Japan: June trade report sees no signs of a rebound in global trade
17. July 2020
USA: University of Michigan consumer survey is the first significant warning to policymakers not to ignore the ongoing resurgence of new daily Covid19 cases
16. July 2020
USA: Philadelphia Fed survey continues to herald a strong manufacturing rebound, but the six-month outlook index falls sharply
USA: June retail sales report shows that market consensus for 2020 is too pessimistic - at least for the time being
Britain: A better-than-expected labour market report does not change the fact the country is in big economic trouble
China: Domestic growth drivers in the hands of Beijing boost Q2 growth. Chinese exporters face a world drawing a line in the sand because of President Xi Jinping's assertive foreign policy
15. July 2020
USA: Industrial output bounces back in June, and more to come in Q3 - but Covid19 outbreak is out of control
Japan: Reuters Tankan survey shows a 'surprisingly' weak rebound in manufacturing sentiment, but the domestic-oriented service sentiment index jumps in July
A virus changes Berlin’s political landscape - Is Germany finally ready for a Bavarian Chancellor?
14. July 2020
US small business sentiment continues to recover as money printing and soaring federal deficit support the economy. Capital spending plans remain depressed
China: June trade report shows net-export was not a significant growth-contributor in Q2
USA: The federal fiscal deficit skyrockets to 15% of GDP. It's 'feeling safe, stupid'
13. July 2020
Turkey: Ankara launching aggressive fiscal and monetary stimulus measures erodes the foundation of the lira
Podcast interview with The Economist's Asia economics editor, Simon Rabinovitch, on China's economic and political situation - and how Beijing handles a hostile global environment
10. July 2020
USA: Deflationary pressure prevails in the short run, not least as policymakers are not in control of Covid19. Nonetheless, the foundation for higher inflation is building
France: Manufacturing activity skyrockets in May reinforced by over-reacting policymakers, but an unpredictable coronavirus outbreak will put a lid on growth in 2021
Podcast interview with Lene Winther, Berlingske's China expert, on the implications of Europe drawing a line in the sand due to a more self-assertive leadership in Beijing [FREE ACCESS]
9. July 2020
Germany: Pan-European stimulus measures will provide short-term support to exporters, but they face secular headwinds
China: Slowing producer price deflation in June indicates a manufacturing rebound gaining momentum. Beijing sponsors stock market rally
8. July 2020
Japan: Service sentiment bounces back as Tokyo takes out the classic 'cutting-corners' tools
7. July 2020
A short note on the latest spikes in Covid19 cases around the world
Germany: The manufacturing rebound is on track supported by a fiscal and monetary 'over-reaction' - but growth in 2021 is forecast to disappoint
Household spending plummets in May despite the fact that Japan has been among the least locked-down economies
6. July 2020
USA: Strong ISM service survey underscores that growth could prove less downbeat in 2020 than forecast by the market consensus. This gives rise to food for thoughts when it comes to new stimulus measures
Euro-zone: May retail sales report shows, Q2 GDP growth could surprise to the upside
Spain: The rebound in the 'periphery' could stall without financial support now and not tomorrow
Germany: Industrial orders bounce back at a slower pace than predicted, but IFO survey heralds stronger recovery in June and July
3. July 2020
China: 'Strong' Caixin service survey disguises anecdotal picture of a far more gloomy economic situation on the mainland. Negative growth in 2020 remains the forecast
Australia: Retail sales bounce back sharply in May. Covid19 outbreak in Melbourne poses no short-term threat, but it shows the vulnerability of the economy
2. July 2020
USA: Strong employment report in June - more in the pipeline in July and August, as the economy reopens - prematurely
1. July 2020
USA: Manufacturing ISM index skyrockets to the highest level since April 2019, as a 'premature' reopening has started
'Commercial': Interesting TV interview with one of Denmark's leading virus experts
Europe: Sweden's PMI survey finally shows a rebound in export sentiment, but Europe faces a 'second wave' after using all ammo on the 'first wave' of Covid19
Japan: The Bank of Japan's quarterly Tankan survey shows a steep decline in business sentiment. The valuation of the Japanese stock market leaves no room for disappointment
30. June 2020
Switzerland: The leading KOF economic barometer index disappoints despite a steep rebound in business sentiment in neighbouring Germany
China: 'Strong' PMI survey shows higher 'output' supported by stimulus measures, but China faces heavy headwinds from increasing hostility abroad
South Korea: Industrial output contracts sharply in May, as the recovery disappoints
29. June 2020
Turkey: The 'expected' rebound gains momentum, as all stimulus engines are running. Policy rates have moved below the annual rate of inflation
EU Commission survey: Policymakers spending all their ammo to fight the economic impact of the 'first wave' boosts sentiment, but this will leave countries empty-handed after a 'second wave' of Covid19
China: Industrial profit data do not change the fact that the economy is headed towards economic contraction in 2020. There is no easy way out of the coronavirus crisis
26. June 2020
Italy: Business and consumer sentiment bounces back in June. The economy will do much better in 2020 than market consensus and not least the IMF forecast
France: INSEE's leading consumer confidence survey shows a sharp rebound in sentiment, which remains significantly higher than seen during the financial crisis in 2008
Surprisingly weak IMF 2020 growth forecast. Conversely, surprisingly upbeat 2021 growth, which must assume a 'well-tested' Covid19-vaccine is here 'tomorrow' - although highly unlikely
25. June 2020
USA: Massive stimulus measures and disorderly reopening process boost durable goods orders - but policymakers are left empty-handed for the 'second wave'
Germany: Consumer sentiment bounces back supported by successful virus control and a sledgehammer of fiscal support. Danish retail sales skyrocket to the highest level since 2008
Follow-up macroeconomic chart update: Policy-mistakes just keep coming. The focus should be on preparing the infrastructure for the 'second wave'. Follow Germany!
24. June 2020
Sweden: The leading June economic sentiment survey fails to show the same economic rebound as in Germany
Germany: IFO survey is a harbinger of a strong rebound. Did policymakers use a sledgehammer to crack what could prove to be a nut?
France: The leading Insee manufacturing business survey disappoints while the service sentiment index skyrockets in June
23. June 2020
USA: New home sales skyrocketing in May indicate that an external shock has, so far, yet again created tailwinds rather than headwinds
Britain: A weak CBI Industrial Trend Survey underscores why the 'old Boris Johnson' is now back in charge of the Covid19-strategy
19. June 2020
There will be no updates on Monday - June 22
Britain: Retail sales bounce back sharply as Covid19-related cases decline. 'A third of furloughed employees asked to work while firms get government handouts'
18. June 2020
USA: Philadelphia Fed survey shows that the manufacturing sector is back to 'normal' - or more precisely, back into the 'boom zone'
Australia: The number of jobless skyrockets in May - the labour participation rate plunges - the Aussie dollar will see support from fiscal stimulus measures
Podcast interview with Steffen Schiottz-Christensen about how China's restart process is progressing, a serious virus outbreak in Beijing and doing business in a more hostile environment for foreigners [FREE ACCESS]
17. June 2020
Japan: Reuters Tankan survey continues to show a gloomy outlook for the manufacturing and service sector. Japan's stock market has performed surprisingly well considering a downbeat global trade outlook
16. June 2020
USA: Skyrocketing retail sales in May show that 'surprisingly' upbeat business and consumer sentiment surveys have been a reflection of the 'real situation' in the economy
Germany: Investor sentiment hits the highest level since 2005 inflating the gap to corporate sentiment
Britain: Jobless claimants skyrocket in May. Prime Minister Johnson is unprepared for an 'unavoidable' second wave. The same applies to the rest of Europe and not least the United States
15. June 2020
China on a fragile path of economic rebound should be seen as a warning to European policymakers. The price of containment is high but needed
12. June 2020
USA: Consumer sentiment stays at a relatively high level considering the extent of the coronavirus outbreak. No signs of the worst crisis since the Second World War
Turkey: Industrial production collapses by 31% in April, as the country could plunge into the second recession in two years
Euro-zone industrial production plunges in April, but May-June report is expected to show a 'huge' rebound in manufacturing output
Britain: The economy collapses by 20% in April after Prime Minister Johnson changed policy to 'containment'
11. June 2020
USA: Producer price report shows mild deflationary pressure. New virus clusters show the country reopens the economy too quickly
Italy: Industrial output plummets in April, but output to bounce back from June and beyond. Alas, the tourist season 2020 seems to be a lost cause. Debt-sharing needed, but rich EU member states have their own problems
The Federal Reserve cements its role as the primary sponsor of inequality in the United States 'until at least the end of 2022'. Monetary policy is no panacea for mitigating the impact of Covid19
10. June 2020
China: May monetary statistics still show no evidence of aggressive monetary easing measures
Australia: Consumer and business sentiment bounces back sharply as the country benefits from a highly successful virus containment policy and fiscal prudence in the past
China: Inflation report continues to show that the 'new normal' is deflationary, at least in the short run
9. June 2020
USA: Small business sentiment survey still shows no signs of a crisis similar to the Great Recession in 2008 - which is a surprise considering the lockdown
Germany: Exports plunge in April at the fastest annual rate since 1963. 'Temporary' fiscal support measures will soon turn into 'permanent' all over Europe
8. June 2020
Podcast interview with Peter Boegh Hansen, Danish Industry China, who sees significant interest from Danish companies considering to enter the world's second-largest economy [FREE ACCESS]
Japan: Economy Watcher 'future conditions index' soars in May - but Prime Minister Abe's approval rating continues lower
Germany: Industrial orders plunge in April, but orders expected to bounce back sharply in May. The US withdrawing troops will force Berlin to boost defence spending more rapidly
USA: Nonfarm payrolls skyrocket at the fastest pace ever recorded. Take-profit on short-dollar-long-euro strategy and take-loss on short-US-stock-market
4. June 2020
ECB President Lagarde does nothing to hide that the role of the central bank has reached the limit. The case for a stronger euro remains strong despite PEPP increase
Germany launches yet another fiscal stimulus package - 'Wir machen das weil wir es uns leisten können'
3. June 2020
USA: ISM service survey shows a very slow economic rebound. The economy faces a bumpy road
Germany: Unemployment skyrockets in May. 'Kurzarbeit Scheme' keeps unemployment at an artificially low level - for now
Sweden: The service PMI index fails to make a decisive rebound in May, as households, to no small extent, react in the same way as the rest of Europe
China: Caixin service PMI index jumps sharply in May after a disappointing survey in April
Podcast interview with a Singaporean entrepreneur in China about what comes next [FREE ACCESS]
2. June 2020
The US stock market sees declining 'immunity' despite money printing: Sell the US stock market
China: Manufacturing PMI survey shows a slow restart of the economy. More stimulus measures will be needed, according to Beijing
USA: ISM manufacturing survey barely shows improvement. Social tensions pose risks to the 'reopening' and the stock market
31. May 2020
By Invitation: May session of China's National People's Congress held in the shadow of escalating China-US conflict 
29. May 2020
Switzerland: Surprisingly few signs of a rebound in the May KOF Institute survey. The headline index fell to a new record low
Japan: Industrial output and retail sales take a beating in April - more downside in May. Tokyo is left 'defenceless'
The case for a stronger euro against the US dollar continues to gain support from several factors
28. May 2020
USA: Better-than-expected durable goods orders and business surveys should make investors think twice about the need for more fiscal stimulus measures. This is 'dollar bearish'
Euro-zone: Economic sentiment shows only marginal improvement in May, as service sentiment hits a new record-low
Sweden: The NIER Economic Tendency survey is a disappointment considering talk about 'Europe opening up'
Spain's catastrophic retail sales number is just one more factor boosting support for EU deal. Britain leaving the union makes leeway for debt-sharing - but also the revival of nationalism in rich member states
27. May 2020
China: Reluctant policymakers in Beijing are warming up to more aggressive fiscal and monetary stimulus measures
South Korea: Manufacturing sentiment takes another beating to a new record low. Deflationary pressure rose during the 'first' coronavirus crisis
France: Disappointing May business sentiment survey underscores why President Macron is eager to 'help Italy, Spain - and France'
26. May 2020
USA: Consumer confidence in May stays at a relatively high level considering the extent of the coronavirus outbreak
USA: Regional manufacturing and non-manufacturing Philadelphia Fed surveys herald V-shaped recovery
Germany: Consumer sentiment recovers only very slowly, as the long-term outlook has deteriorated markedly
25. May 2020
Germany: IFO survey shows light at the end of the tunnel, but the manufacturing sector and the service sector remain in deep recession in Q2
EU: Franco-German deal will probably be passed, but this will not unite the union. The opposite is the case
Two Sessions: Beijing needs to launch more aggressive measures to achieve 'some economic growth' in 2020
USA: Regional Philadelphia Fed survey 'concludes' Covid-19 to disappear from the radar in the not too distant future - or has money-printing done the trick?
20. May 2020
There are no updates on May 21-22 due to public holidays
Taiwan: A highly successful virus containment strategy has protected the people and the economy. Exports orders from China jump
Japan: A sharp decline in the Reuters Tankan's manufacturing and service index heralds close to 10% contraction in Q2
Interactive presentation: Life 'after' the coronavirus outbreak - A storyboard update
19. May 2020
Britain: Jobless claimants skyrocket to the highest level since the 1960s - European policy-making creates the foundation for a negative 'economic wave' further down the road
18. May 2020
China: House prices regain momentum in April despite falling wages and soaring unemployment
A vulnerable Japan plunged into recession in Q1 before the coronavirus gained a stronger foothold
15. May 2020
USA: Industrial output falls sharply in April, but reopening talks boost manufacturing sentiment
USA: Retail sales collapse in April. A quick normalisation requires no major new virus outbreaks, which seems highly unlikely
Podcast interview with Camilla Noerup Sorensen from the Institute for Strategy at the Royal Danish Defence College: 'What comes after the coronavirus crisis? Has the world become less peaceful?'
China: The 'restart' continued in April, but the 'new normal' is quite different and disappoints Beijing
14. May 2020
Turkey: Industrial output takes a beating in March as the first impact of the lockdown hits the shores
Podcast interview with immunology professor Jan Pravsgaard Christensen about what we know and what we do not know about the coronavirus - [FREE ACCESS]
13. May 2020
Euro-zone: Industrial output fell sharply in March as the economy was locked down
USA: April fiscal deficit skyrockets to the same level as for the full year in 2018. A failed 'restart' could make workers stay home
12. May 2020
USA: The first impact of the coronavirus outbreak is deflationary pressure, but the policy response and deglobalisation risk creating inflation pressure
USA: Surprisingly 'less downbeat' small NFIB business survey as the White House talks about restarting the economy now and not tomorrow
Australia in a much better position than most other countries continues to add support to the Aussie dollar
China: Falling factory prices show the real picture in the manufacturing sector
11. May 2020
China: There are no signs yet of aggressive monetary easing, according to April monetary statistics
7. May 2020
France: Worse-than-expected manufacturing output in March shows the extent of the economic downturn
China: April exports data much better than expected, but the 'new normal' is quite different from the 'old normal'
6. May 2020
Public holiday in Denmark on May 8
USA: Private payrolls collapse by 20.2 million jobs in April. President Trump plans restart of the economy without a credible plan
Sweden versus the rest of Europe: PMI service sentiment index declines less than in the rest of Europe
Germany: Industrial orders drop at the fastest rate since January 1991. More downside in April, according to the latest IFO survey
Spain: Unemployment skyrockets at a time when the tourist season was supposed to show the opposite. Voters are not in the mood for another decade of fiscal austerity
Podcast interview with Steen Jakobsen, Chief Investment Officer, Saxo Bank, about a global economy headed towards the 1970s
5. May 2020
USA: ISM service survey shows a 'slightly less' downbeat outlook although the orders and the employment index dropped to the lowest level ever recorded
Switzerland: Consumer confidence plummets to the lowest levels since the early 1970s
4. May 2020
Sweden: PMI manufacturing orders index plummets to an all-time low
1. May 2020
USA: Manufacturing sentiment plunges less than market expectations, but the survey heralds mass lay-offs in May and June
Coronavirus crisis: Adjust to the virus now. Press the 'play button' sooner rather than later or face the Great Depression II
Japan: Consumer confidence plunges to an all-time low as Tokyo's only tool, money-printing, is inefficient against a different enemy
30. April 2020
Spain: The economy contracts at the fastest rate since the Civil War in 1936-1939. No signs of relief in Q2. Help from Brussels is needed!
China: The April details in the PMI survey show few signs of a strong 'restart'. PMI export index plunges due to massive orders cancellations
France: The economy tumbles in Q1 even though the 'real crisis' started in April. Europe needs to adjust 'infrastructure' assuming a second wave will come. Euro appreciation?
29. April 2020
USA: The economy shows a sharp contraction in Q1 before the coronavirus outbreak turned into a catastrophe for the country
Euro-zone: Business and consumer survey indicates sharp economic contraction in 2020. Anecdotal evidence from China shows no signs of V-shaped recovery
Podcast interview with Anders Ellemann Kristensen in Beijing, General Manager, Albatros Travel China, about the restart and a 'less' optimistic outlook for China [FREE ACCESS]
Turkey: The biggest collapse in economic sentiment seen in the world - so far!
South Korea: A successful virus-strategy is no guarantee for an export-oriented economy, which is no stronger than the weakest link in the global supply chain
28. April 2020
USA: Inconsistent consumer survey indicates a shortlived virus crisis. Nonetheless, households may be in for a surprise
France: Consumer sentiment is falling, but not to a degree one might have feared. Nevertheless, the fear of becoming unemployed is increasing
USA: Dallas Fed manufacturing sentiment plunges in April. Spending plans and wages index collapse
27. April 2020
China: Corporate profits take a massive beating in Q1. Anecdotal evidence from Beijing International Airport shows soaring ticket prices to overseas destinations
24. April 2020
USA: 'Core' durable goods orders were stable in March, but forward-leading indicators herald 30% decline in April
Germany: IFO index plunges to a new record low, as Europe faces a deep and prolonged recession
23. April 2020
Britain: Business sentiment collapses to the lowest level since the early 1950s. Boris Johnson has turned into the most cautious 'restarter'
South Korea: The economy shows 'moderate' contraction in the first quarter of 2020. The outlook remains gloomy even though Seoul has done all the right thing
Sweden: 'Herd immunity' strategy does not make the economy immune. Economic sentiment index plummets to an all-time low in April. 'Herd immunity' versus 'Containment'
France: Service sentiment plunges to an all-time low in April. The political aftermath of virus-outbreak will radically change President Macron's political agenda
Podcast interview with Morten Springborg about how the coronavirus outbreak could change the investment environment [FREE ACCESS]
22. April 2020
Euro-zone consumer confidence plummets to the lowest level since March 2009 as policymakers try to restart the economy
Dutch households' assessment of the future economic situation plunges to an all-time low. European policymakers handle virus crisis blindfold
21. April 2020
USA: Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing business sentiment index plunges to an all-time low in April. The economy is headed towards a deep recession
Podcast interview with Professor Torben M Andersen on how Danish policymakers handle the ongoing coronavirus crisis blindfold. What do the first 'random' tests say about the extent of the virus outbreak? [FREE ACCESS]
Britain: March labour market report is history. The economy is headed towards a sharp contraction in private consumption and a steep decline in house prices
20. April 2020
Revisiting the coronavirus storyboard: The end of the beginning
Podcast interview with a 'contaminated' Danish businessman in China. The business environment for foreigners has changed significantly in China [FREE ACCESS]
17. April 2020
China: Massive economic contraction in Q1. The strategy is now 'localisation' rather than 'globalisation', and more support to state-owned enterprises. Foreigners are 'contaminated'
16. April 2020
USA: Philadelphia Fed index plunges to the lowest level since 1980, but respondents also believe coronavirus crisis is a 'short-term problem'
Japan: Reuters Tankan survey shows a steep decline in the manufacturing index. Service sentiment hits an all-time low. Prime Minister Abe criticises WHO to divert attention from Tokyo's coronavirus strategy failure
15. April 2020
USA: Retail sales plunged during the first phase of the Covid19 crisis. Manufacturing sentiment plummets in April
Swiss consumer confidence collapses to the lowest level since the early 1970s
Correct, Covid19 is not the same as in 2008 - it is worse! French retail sales plunge by 24% in March and Australian consumer confidence shows the steepest collapse seen in the last 47 years.
14. April 2020
Australia: Business confidence plummets to the lowest level ever recorded. A deep recession is in the pipeline
China: The 'restart' remains on track, but the 'new normal' means significantly slower growth
By Invitation: After the mask - what will happen at China’s next parliamentary session?
A 'smart restart' of Europe requires 'qualified estimates' of infected persons based on random national testing and a radical change of doing business. WHO says it is unclear whether recovered patients are immune
8. April 2020
Japan: Service sentiment plunges to an all-time low, as Tokyo fails to rein in the coronavirus outbreak
VIDEO: China's restart - Households are increasingly acting as they did before the coronavirus outbreak
7. April 2020
A necessary but risky restart of Europe's economy has begun: Denmark opts for a peculiar restart strategy or has the 'curve' simply turned too flat?
6. April 2020
Japan: Consumer confidence plunges to the lowest level since March 2009 as the coronavirus outbreak appears out of control
Why are national health authorities not listening to anecdotal evidence from Asia? Credibility is needed if a 'second wave' were to emerge
Germany: Industrial orders fell less-than-expected in February. Nonetheless, IFO survey heralded orders to plunge by 20% shortly before the number of infected persons stood at only 2,700
Britain: Consumer confidence plummets to the lowest level since 2009 shortly before the coronavirus truth was available to the public - Bank of England is not in the mood of money-printing
3. April 2020
USA: The March ISM service index declines much less than market expectations. That said, the situation will deteriorate significantly in April
USA: Nonfarm payrolls plummeted by 701,000 as the report only takes into account payroll activity through March 14. April unemployment rate above 10% is highly likely
Euro-zone: Panic-buying boosts retail sales in February. March retail sales could collapse in the range of 20% to 30%
China: Private service PMI survey shows what lies ahead for the mainland and the rest of the world
2. April 2020
Coronavirus outbreak in Europe: Investors and companies face a future with national health authorities knowing less than they believed in January
Spain: The number of unemployed skyrockets at the worst possible time shortly before peak season
1. April 2020
ISM survey: USA pays a heavy price for a President, who has been more interested in protecting the economy and investors at the expense of ordinary people's health. Both are now losing big time
Sweden: PMI index plunges to the lowest level since April 2009. This time the Riksbank's classic monetary response will not make a difference. Instead, the focus is now on Swedish health authorities
China: A strong rebound in the Caixin PMI index shows that the 'restart process' has begun - but the risk of a 'second wave' this autumn dents the long-term growth potential
31. March 2020
USA: Consumer confidence declines less than expected but based on a preliminary survey conducted before March 19
South Korea: A highly successful containment and testing strategy will not prevent significant economic damage. Business sentiment plunges to the lowest level since 2009
China: A successful containment strategy boosts business sentiment, but the road to 'normal' will be an uphill struggle
30. March 2020
EU business and consumer survey shows a steep decline in economic sentiment. The lockdown makes it impossible for many respondents to create feedback
VIDEO Interview: How is China's 'restart' progressing - and what can Europe learn?
27. March 2020
Declining European consumer and business confidence raises the first critical questions about the shut-down strategy. What would have happened without the shut-down?
26. March 2020
Europe should hurry to create a new 'infrastructure' and social behaviour that will make people feel safe when the 'restart' begins in May - if we are lucky
France: Service sentiment plunged even before the number of infected persons skyrocketed in the second half of March
25. March 2020
USA: No major coronavirus impact on durable goods orders in February. This will change radically in March and the second quarter
Germany: IFO index plummets to the lowest level since 2008 as the coronavirus outbreak hits the shores. The service sentiment index hit a new all-time low
Coronavirus crisis: The aftermath of the 'first wave' is critical for the consequences of the 'second wave'. Do not bet on President Trump to solve the crisis
24. March 2020
USA: Philadelphia Fed service sentiment index collapses to the lowest level on record
Britain: Manufacturing sentiment fell sharply before the number of infected persons skyrocketed in the country. Light at the end of the tunnel in Italy
23. March 2020
South Korea and Taiwan: The economy benefits from a successful containment strategy. Europe and the United States pay a high price for a failed strategy
20. March 2020
USA: The housing market was buoyant shortly before the coronavirus outbreak hit the shores. More than 14000 infected and still growing
Coronavirus update: Households 'playing safe' in the foreseeable future will dent global productivity for a long time to come
19. March 2020
USA: Philadelphia Fed index plunges in March as the first wave of the coronavirus outbreak hits the shores
A possible economic and stock market scenario version 2.0. Containment, testing and a possible vaccine are the crucial factors - and not aggressive 'demand' stimulus measures, at least not at this stage
18. March 2020
USA: Strong housing starts report shortly before 'day zero'
Podcast interview with Steffen Schiottz-Christensen about a slow 'restart process' in China. A 'survival kit' for Europeans in the coming weeks and months [FREE ACCESS]
17. March 2020
US retail sales report: Silence before the storm - containment first followed by fiscal stimulus later
Japan: Reuters Tankan business sentiment plummets to the lowest level since 2009
16. March 2020
US Empire State headline index plummets as the first wave of coronavirus outbreak hits the shores
Europe getting it's act together gives rise to some optimism - 'Containment' and stabilising the banking system are the key factors rather than fiscal and monetary easing
China: Economic activity plummets in February in line with anecdotal evidence. Light at the end of the tunnel. 'Containment' is the key factor. Aggressive fiscal stimulus measures should come after 'containment'
13. March 2020
USA: Consumer sentiment index declines in March. The 'real picture' of the coronavirus outbreak could create panic among households
12. March 2020
USA: Inflation will be absent in the very near future as the virus outbreak will hit demand
Coronavirus advise from China: Face masks
11. March 2020
A possible storyboard for the global stock market in a highly unpredictable environment
Coronavirus outbreak: Learn from Taiwan today - and not tomorrow!
10. March 2020
USA: Small business sentiment stays at an elevated level. The number of coronavirus-infected skyrockets amidst a shortage of test kits
China: Skyrocketing pork prices in February. President Xi Jinping has finally enough courage for an inspection tour of Wuhan
9. March 2020
Japan: The Economy Watcher future conditions index plummets to the lowest level since 2009 as Tokyo is left without ammo 
The coronavirus is spreading uncontrollably as European and US authorities have learned little from China's severe mistakes made at the beginning of the crisis. Milan region is 'Wuhan' and Italy is 'Hubei'
6. March 2020
USA: The labour market was strong before the coronavirus hit the shores. The Federal Reserve can print money but not vaccines
Podcast interview with Tom Xiong in Shanghai about the ongoing business impact of the coronavirus outbreak in China - and what Europe can learn from China's experience [FREE ACCESS]
Germany: Industrial orders bouncing back in January is history as coronavirus cases skyrocket. Health authorities missed one important point - 30% of population is older than 60
5. March 2020
China: Q1 growth revised down again as the 'restart process' is painfully slow
Brazil: Policymakers launched several of the right reforms, but the country now faces a huge external shock and a currency going into a tailspin
4. March 2020
USA: ISM service sentiment index jumps in February and the orders index skyrockets. The coronavirus outbreak hitting the shores poses a serious threat to the economy
USA: Private employment report shows modest job gains shortly before the full impact of China's manufacturing collapse and the coronavirus outbreak hit US shores
Germany: 'Healthy' households are now exposed to the 'fear factor' as the authorities seem behind the 'coronavirus curve'
Coronavirus outbreak: China has made the storyboard for Europe and the United States. What are the implications?
3. March 2020
Euro-zone: The unemployment rate stays at the lowest level since 2008. The coronavirus hitting the shores could change the situation within a few months if the current 'containment strategy' were to fail
What comes after investors switched from 'complacency' to 'excessive fear'? The aftermath of the coronavirus outbreak could be significant for the corporate sector in China, Europe and the United States
2. March 2020
USA: Manufacturing ISM survey shows weakness shortly before the 'coronavirus fear' hits the shores of the United States
China: Anecdotal evidence from today shows manufacturing improvement but many 'bottlenecks'. Activity in the travel sector has collapsed. Service sector remains weak
Turkey makes yet another policy-mistake by opening the borders to migrants. Europe will respond differently than in 2015, which could turn ugly
Sweden: Manufacturing PMI index continues to recover to the highest level since November 2018. Export orders index skyrockets
China: The headline index in the PMI service and manufacturing surveys plummets to an all-time low in February as the 'restart' turns out to be an uphill struggle. Light at the end of the tunnel - or just the effect of the 'national team'?
28. February 2020
Turkey: Aggressive fiscal and monetary easing boosts Q4 growth. Syrian refugees enter EU after Ankara opens borders to Greece and Bulgaria
The coronavirus outbreak should raise two fundamental questions for policymakers: First, have central banks left our economy defenceless against external shocks? Second, has globalisation gone too far?
Japan: Industrial production bounced back shortly before 'day zero'. Global coordinated monetary easing is in the pipeline
27. February 2020
USA: Anaemic growth in durable goods orders in January. No profound signs of a sharp rebound in corporate spending and policymakers have no ammo to fight a 'black swan'
EU business and consumer survey showed upbeat sentiment shortly before the coronavirus hit the shores more aggressively
Must-listen Podcast interview with Joerg Wuttke, President of the EU Chamber of Commerce in China: Is the coronavirus outbreak a wake-up call to European companies in China? Topics such as a serious shortage in the pharmaceutical sector [FREE ACCESS]
26. February 2020
USA: New home sales skyrocketed in January before the coronavirus hit the shores
France: Households were highly upbeat before the coronavirus outbreak due to a strong labour market
Anecdotal evidence from China, telling the truth and how 'nonchalant' health authorities in Europe and the United States underestimated the impact of millions of Chinese travellers and their own citizens visiting China
25. February 2020
USA: Consumer confidence remains upbeat as the coronavirus is 'far away from the shore' - at least so far
France: Business sentiment was robust 'before' the Italian coronavirus outbreak
Germany: Q4 GDP details show weak underlying growth. Coronavirus outbreak in Italy poses a significant risk to other EU countries
Take profit on the 'short US and Japanese stock market' strategy
24. February 2020
Germany: IFO survey shows no signs yet of 'coronavirus impact' - the survey was conducted before the latest outbreak in Italy - 'L-recovery' remains in the pipeline
21. February 2020
USA: Existing home sales report continues to show a robust housing market, which boosts consumer confidence - at least as long as the coronavirus stays at bay
Coronavirus outbreak: South Korean exports increase in February but the number of virus-infected jumps by 500% within a few days. Is Beijing's back-to-work strategy backfiring?
20. February 2020
Turkey: Consumer confidence declines in February close to the lowest level since 2009 despite aggressive monetary and fiscal easing
USA: Philadelphia Fed index skyrockets in February - six-month-outlook jumps
China: PBOC report shows a 'normal' rebound in monetary aggregates in January - but the trend remains weak. Aggressive monetary easing is in the pipeline
China: PBOC cuts policy rates but this will not make workers come back
19. February 2020
China: The risk of misinformation is on the rise as the main focus now is to restart the economy to strengthen a wing-shot 'core leader' in Beijing
Britain: Benign inflation, tight labour market and Boris Johnson's election victory boost business sentiment - The probability of 'significant' fiscal expansion boosted by Javid resignation
Japan: Machinery orders drop in December. The number of non-cruise-ship-related coronavirus cases has more than doubled within a few days
18. February 2020
USA: The absence, so far, of a dramatic increase in the number of virus-infected continues to support the ongoing rebound in manufacturing sentiment
Japan: The economy contracts sharply in the last quarter of 2019 as Tokyo struggles to contain the spread of the coronavirus
Germany: ZEW survey shows a steep decline in investor sentiment as the coronavirus outbreak appears to make an impact
Podcast interview with Klaus Anker Petersen, Brand House Holding, about Beijing's efforts to restart the economy, consequences for the global supply chain and not least new business opportunities created by the outbreak - recorded today [FREE ACCESS]
14. February 2020
There will be no updates on Monday - February 17
US retail sales report: A robust economy with a falling growth rate because of 'late-cycle bottle-necks'
China: Insightview reduces Q1 growth forecast again as anecdotal evidence shows slow upstart of production - podcast on Tuesday
Germany: The economy was flat in Q4 as corporate spending and consumption put a drag on growth. Headwinds in 2020 require a political response from a wing-shot Berlin
13. February 2020
France: Unemployment drops to the lowest level since 2008. Coronavirus outbreak poses a significant risk to millions of Chinese tourists visiting the country every year
USA: The fiscal deficit hitting a new record high, by courtesy of President Trump, makes the economy vulnerable
Sell a basket of the US and Japanese stock markets based on valuation and investors underestimating the global economic impact of the coronavirus outbreak
12. February 2020
Brazil's weak recovery is in jeopardy as the country's largest trading partner, China, has stalled
Euro-zone: Industrial output plunges in December - China's coronavirus outbreak could hit Euro-zone growth harder than currently assessed by the financial market
Germany: CDU's leadership faces 'mission impossible'. Berlin's reversal of the 'Thuringia decision' makes leeway for a far-left Minister-President
11. February 2020
USA: The NFIB small business sentiment survey continues to show a buoyant domestic economy - the labour market is tight and compensation is on the rise
10. February 2020
The Euro-zone faces more headwinds: Italy's industrial output plunges, and CDU party boss steps down making leeway to more turmoil at the political centre of Europe
China: The virus outbreak 'appears' close to a peak, but the macroeconomic consequences could prove to be huge. When is Beijing forced to declare the coronavirus outbreak 'secondary' and 'growth' primary?
7. February 2020
USA: A strong labour market report in January despite weak demand for workers in the ISM employment indexes. The rate of wage increases remains moderate
China: Steady foreign exchange reserves in January do not disguise a trend of a weakening FX position. The White House shows no signs of trade reconciliation
Germany: Manufacturing output plunges in December. 'China crisis' will create short-term problems, but the real issue is Berlin in disarray
6. February 2020
Germany: CDU and FDP have just done what many feared would happen sooner or later
The latest chart update of the coronavirus outbreak: New cases in China slows substantially but accelerates outside China. Why are there no cases in Africa?
Germany: Industrial orders plunge at the fastest annual rate since October 2009 ahead of the coronavirus outbreak
5. February 2020
USA: ISM service survey shows evidence of a 'moderate' rebound in growth in the first half of 2020 - assuming the 'coronavirus stays at bay'
USA: ADP Employment Report shows a steep jump in hiring in January
Euro-zone: Retail sales contracted in December. Households need a new driving factor in 2020 - and the coronavirus to stay away
China: Caixin PMI service index, the falling information value of Chinese statistics and the risk of a shortage of everyday basic commodities
4. February 2020
A short update on the latest coronavirus statistics - 'a little light at the end of the tunnel?'
Recorded web session: Web session meeting with onsite sources from Shanghai and Sichuan about what comes next - only available this week
3. February 2020
INVITATION - Web session meeting with onsite sources from Shanghai and Sichuan about what comes next. The economic, political and production impact of the coronavirus outbreak. Email the editor as soon as possible to register - February 4, 09:30 CET
USA: Manufacturing sentiment bounces back in line with the regional surveys. Households see new tailwinds 'sponsored' by problems abroad
Turkey: Inflation is on the rise as President Erdogan launches fiscal stimulus and monetary easing at the expense of price stability and the lira
Sweden: Manufacturing PMI index bounces back sharply, but the coronavirus outbreak makes this 'history' - for the time being
China: Weak Caixin PMI survey before the coronavirus outbreak - China has only a few 'pull factors' compared to 2003
31. January 2020
Weak Euro-zone growth in the last quarter of 2019. Italy's economy contracts, and Spain is the main growth contributor
China: National PMI survey provides little information about the future. 'March 1' is crucial for the global supply chain
France: The economy contracts in the last quarter of 2019 due to a significant drag from inventories. Real domestic demand remains robust
30. January 2020
USA: A sharp decline in imports was the main growth contributor in the last quarter of 2019. Also, corporate spending contracted
The coronavirus, the global supply chain and the world's response to China's nightmare
Euro-zone: The EU Commission's Business and Consumer Survey shows 'moderate optimism' shortly before the extent of the coronavirus outbreak was known
South Korea: Bank of Korea business survey shows a strong rebound in sentiment after plenty of fiscal and monetary stimulus. The country faces secular headwinds from adverse demographics
29. January 2020
France: Consumer confidence bounces back in January as President Macron's reform process has already made visible results
Italy: Business and consumer surveys herald flat or negative growth in 2020. Time is on the side of Matteo Salvini
Podcast interview (must-listen) with Steffen Schiottz-Christensen, IFU, in Chengdu, about the coronavirus impact, the consequences for the global supply chain and Jyllandsposten's cartoon - Anecdotal evidence from Sichuan [FREE ACCESS]
28. January 2020
USA: Consumer confidence jumps in January. Also, the Richmond Fed index skyrockets
Podcast interview with Anders Ellemann Kristensen in Beijing, General Manager, Albatros Travel China, about the coronavirus impact - Anecdotal evidence from Beijing [FREE ACCESS]
USA: Durable goods orders continue to show a weak underlying trend in corporate spending despite tax cuts
Spain: The quarterly unemployment rate hits the lowest level since 2008, but the best forward-looking indicators herald a significantly weak labour market in 2020
27. January 2020
USA: New home sales report disappoints in December despite low mortgage rates - but the housing market is expected to be strong in the first half of 2020
A short note on the Coronavirus outbreak: Beijing's efficient response to the outbreak poses, ironically, a significant risk to short-term growth. The next surprise might emerge outside China
Germany: IFO survey disappoints as service sentiment declines. Trade rhetoric from the White House warns about retaliation if carbon import tax is imposed on foreign products
23. January 2020
Turkey: Consumer confidence stays close to a record low despite aggressive monetary and fiscal easing. The lira is at risk
USA: Existing home sales report shows a buoyant housing market boosting households' wealth effect significantly by courtesy of the Federal Reserve
Japan: The December trade report shows no signs of an upcoming rebound. Nearly ten million Chinese tourists are suddenly a liability
A short note on the risk of a pandemic caused by a new strain of coronavirus in China - The difference from the Sars-outbreak in 2003
21. January 2020
2020 Outlook roadshow: There will be no or only delayed updates on January 22
Germany: Investor sentiment jumps, according to the January ZEW survey
Britain: The best forward-looking employment indicators show a 'less upbeat' rather than a 'downbeat' labour market
A short note on the new strain of coronavirus in China
20. January 2020
Taiwanese export orders report shows tentative signs of a meagre rebound in global and Chinese manufacturing activity
17. January 2020
USA: Housing starts skyrocket to the highest level since 2006 as tailwinds prevail
Britain: Retail sales disappointing big time in December raises the likelihood of negative growth in Q4. Fiscal stimulus measures are in the pipeline
China 'decides' to report the slowest growth rate since 1989. The underlying details should give rise for concern in Washington and Brussels
16. January 2020
USA: Strong third-quarter retail sales statistics as households barely see headwinds
USA: Philadelphia Fed survey shows tentative signs of bouncing back. This still needs to be reflected in the national ISM survey
Turkey: Ankara cuts policy rates aggressively at the same time as the fiscal deficit hits a new all-time high
China: House prices are even weaker than reflected in official statistics. The dark clouds remain on the horizon despite a 'fantastic' trade deal
Japan: Reuters Tankan survey fails to show a rebound in downbeat manufacturing sentiment despite US-China trade deal and fiscal stimulus measures
15. January 2020
USA: Manufacturing Empire State survey shows no evidence of a 'fantastic phase-one trade deal'
Euro-zone: A record high trade surplus with the United States provides more ammo to the next leg in the 'global trade war'
China: Trade report shows signs of stronger infrastructure spending - weak 'phase one' trade deal will only 'buy time'
13. January 2020
Britain: The economy shows signs of broad-based contraction in the last quarter of 2019. The outlook is deteriorating
France: A short note on the government's decision not to raise the retirement age
10. January 2020
USA: Employment report is neither too cold nor too hot, at least from the perspective of the Federal Reserve
Spain: Manufacturing output bounced back in November, but consumer confidence falls sharply in December. The left-wing coalition plans a reversal of the labour market reform
Iran scoring an own goal by shooting down a Ukrainian passenger plane weakens the case for Tehran
Global: The rebound in leading manufacturing indicators has so far been a huge disappointment. Policymakers are close to pressing the 'panic button' as 'zero growth' is not an option
7. January 2020
USA: ISM service headline index improves in December, but the underlying details remain weak
Euro-zone: Robust consumer spending bodes well for growth in the last quarter of 2019. Nonetheless, the outlook is less upbeat
A short note on John Bolton's offer to testify: The Democrats have nothing to lose
Sweden: PMI service survey shows lacklustre growth outlook - but the forecast for the Swedish currency remains positive
6. January 2020
Iran crisis: Trump won a pyrrhic victory, but the United States risks becoming the big loser while Beijing wisely stays out of the conflict
3. January 2020
USA: Disappointingly weak manufacturing ISM survey as 'fantastic' trade deal fails to boost sentiment. Production index plunges
The killing of Iran Revolutionary Guard commander could turn into a nightmare for President Trump who is not prepared for the next step in the conflict
Global macroeconomic update presentation focusing on the main drivers in 2020
2. January 2020
Sweden: Weak manufacturing PMI survey in December will not change the fact that low-public-sector-debt currencies will outperform in the first half of 2020
China: Weak PMI surveys underscore why Beijing is now on a path of more aggressive monetary easing. Financial repression gains the upper hand
20. December 2019
There will be no updates from December 23 until January 1, both days included, due to the Christmas holiday.
Germany: GfK survey shows a steep decline in households' income expectations as negative interest rates, perversely, boost the savings rate to the highest level since 2008
19. December 2019
USA: Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey shows weak short-term demand but strong long-term demand
France: The broader business sentiment index remains buoyant, as President Macron still has the upper hand
18. December 2019
A short update on the euro against the US dollar. What escalating trade tensions in 2020 mean for the euro?
Germany: IFO index bounces back in December propelled by sentiment in the service sector. Manufacturing sector barely improves. Robert Lighthizer and China threaten Germany and the EU
17. December 2019
USA: Manufacturing output rose in November. What if the best short-term leading indicators were to bounce back sharply in January?
Britain: A robust labour market is on its last legs, but a recession is no longer part of the storyboard
USA: Homebuilder sentiment index jumps to the highest level since June 1999 as housing 'demand' benefits from an unusually accommodative monetary environment
16. December 2019
USA: Manufacturing Empire State index barely bounces back from an already low level, but the capital expenditure index jumps
China: House prices continue to increase at a slower pace as Beijing enters a path of monetary easing
China: Manufacturing output bounces back, but underlying details remain weak. Beijing 'bullying' raises fundamental questions overseas about the future relationship with China
13. December 2019
USA: November retail sales report disappoints, but consumer spending will remain robust in the first half of 2020
Anecdotal evidence from China: The economy remains weak and the leadership appears divided. Beijing needs, therefore, a trade deal more than ever before
A short note to the 'Torben Andersen podcast interview' - Why central banks are worried about the consequences of digital currencies
The primary lesson from Britain's national election: 'Stay away from the far-left' and show unity
12. December 2019
USA: Benign inflation environment in November. A tight labour market poses a much larger risk to price stability than import tariffs
Japan: Machinery orders plunge in October. Tokyo plans to launch fiscal stimulus measures equivalent to 2% of GDP
Podcast interview with Torben M Andersen, former chairman of the Danish Economic Council and the Welfare Commission, about whether QE has failed and, if so, 'what went wrong?' [FREE ACCESS]
11. December 2019
There will be no updates on December 11
10. December 2019
USA: Small business survey shows the highest share of respondents planning to raise wages since 1989
Germany: ZEW survey shows improving investor sentiment as both monetary and fiscal policy is expected to be accommodative in 2020; but the economy remains fragile
France: President Macron faces a decisive battle reminiscent of Prime Minister Thatcher's struggle with the miners in the 1980s
China: Soaring pork prices propel consumer price inflation to the highest level seen since 2011
9. December 2019
A short note on the US employment report: The labour force of 'needed' workers appears to have reached the upper limit
China: Trade details show Beijing is slowly turning towards 'classic' stimulus measures, as US-China relations are heading for long-term deterioration
6. December 2019
USA: Consumer confidence jumps as households see only tailwinds - even from the Federal Reserve
USA: Employment report shows a massive increase in new jobs although this was not enough to lure many more workers into the labour force
Germany: Manufacturing output drops at the fastest annual rate since November 2009
Japan: PM Abe's cabinet approves a huge fiscal stimulus package as real household spending takes a beating
5. December 2019
Euro-zone: Households are the main growth contributor, but households in Southern Europe could turn into a major drag on growth in 2020
Germany: Industrial orders decline by more than expected in October; 'big items' orders prevent an even sharper decline
4. December 2019
USA: ISM service index disappoints, but the underlying details are slightly less downbeat
USA: ADP Employment shows weak job creation in November. More weakness to come in Q1
Sweden: Service sentiment moves deeper into the contraction zone. The broader economy could contract in Q1
3. December 2019
Take profit in the 'long Swedish currency strategy'
Spain could be headed towards a significant increase in unemployment in 2020
2. December 2019
USA: Manufacturing ISM survey is a significant disappointment. No signs of a rebound in corporate spending
Sweden: PMI survey shows no signs of a rebound in the manufacturing sector
Germany: SPD's new leadership will move the party further to the left and boost the probability of fiscal stimulus measures
China: PMI survey shows a rebound in business sentiment, but details and anecdotal evidence herald more weakness to come
29. November 2019
India: Economic growth drops to the slowest rate since Q1 2013
Sweden: Strong net-export in Q3 supports the economy. The properties of the currency are 'value' as well as 'cyclical'
Japan: Manufacturing output falls at the fastest annual rate since 2013 beyond what could be explained by a powerful typhoon
South Korea: Industrial production falls sharply in October. Business sentiment indicators 'appear' to have reached rock bottom, but a bumpy road ahead
28. November 2019
EU survey: Euro-zone sentiment showing broad-based improvement reduces the risk of recession in 2020, but the economy is still headed towards 'shallow growth'
Japan: Increasing household consumption before VAT hike leads to a sharp fall in retail sales in October. IMF urges Tokyo to raise VAT rate to 15%
27. November 2019
USA: Durable goods orders manage to increase in October but continue to contract on an annual basis
China: Industrial profit falls sharply in October. Economic growth is headed lower in 2020 without new stimulus measures
France: Consumer confidence jumps in November. Households expect unemployment to fall in the future
USA: Richmond Fed survey also shows contraction in corporate spending
26. November 2019
USA: Robust new home sales statistics show upbeat 'long-term' consumer sentiment
Sweden: Benign inflation at the factory gates but higher than in the Euro-zone. Why the next global downturn 'could' be different for the Swedish currency
Germany: Consumer sentiment improves as households see stronger short-term tailwinds, but financial repression erodes their future spending power
USA: Dallas Fed survey shows stabilisation in the manufacturing sector but also a steep decline in the capital expenditure plans index
25. November 2019
A short note on comments from Liu He evading the attention of the financial market
Germany: IFO survey shows no 'decisive' evidence of an upcoming rebound. Financial repression could hit households hard in 2020
By Invitation: Stealth leadership - Silence on key challenges at China's recent Central Committee meeting
22. November 2019
Germany: Q3 GDP details show a 'slightly stronger' underlying economy than reflected by the preliminary report
21. November 2019
USA: Philadelphia Fed headline index concludes rock bottom in manufacturing sentiment, but details show a mixed picture
Turkey: Consumer confidence index bounces back but remains close to the lowest level since 2009
France: No further signs of weaker business sentiment. The positive impact of President Macron's reforms hits the shores, but the budget deficit is on the rise
20. November 2019
++There will only be delayed updates on Thursday, November 21++
Global trade: The latest statistics show no signs of an upcoming rebound
Germany: Prices at the factory gates move deeper into the contraction zone. Unions and employers call for a €450 billion infrastructure spending initiative
19. November 2019
China: The fiscal deficit in October hits the highest level seen in the last three decades. Beijing has few options left
A short note on the US dollar and the euro: Diverging central bank balance sheets erode support for a fundamentally overvalued US dollar
18. November 2019
A short note on Hong Kong, US-China trade negotiations and the 'leaked documents'
15. November 2019
USA: Weak industrial output will keep the Federal Reserve on a path of 'quantitative easing' - more manufacturing weakness 'beyond GM' is in the pipeline
USA: Household spending is losing momentum, according to the October retail sales report, but consumers still see more tailwinds than headwinds
Euro-zone: The trade surplus with the United States hits a new all-time high
China: 'Second-hand' house price statistics show weakness. Beijing faces a dilemma
14. November 2019
Turkey: Industrial output makes a sharp rebound. Falling inflation makes leeway for more rate cuts
Japan: Weak Q3 GDP growth because 'front-loading' of private consumption was absent despite a hike in the value-added-tax rate
Germany: The economy escapes 'technical recession' but weakness in the auto sector could soon hit the service sector
China: Beijing faces economic headwinds, which are not within the range of the 'new normal'
13. November 2019
USA: Benign inflation continues to boost households' real purchasing power. Fiscal and monetary policy remains accommodative late in the business cycle
A short note on the swine fever in China: Why the outbreak worries Beijing as price pressure boost other food prices. Swine fever is spreading to other places around the world
Britain: Declining inflation maintains a robust rise in households' real spending power, but the best for households is coming to an end
The corporate sector created a supply chain based on costs optimisation. The price of rising 'political diversification' will add upward pressure on inflation further down the road
12. November 2019
Germany: ZEW survey bounces back, but the growth outlook remains weak
USA: Small business sentiment index increases in October as the job market remains buoyant
India: Manufacturing output plunges at the fastest rate since 2011. Moody's downgrades credit rating as the country 'is undergoing a significant slowdown'
11. November 2019
Britain: Manufacturing output contracts, but PM Johnson headed for a huge election victory in December provides some light at the end of the tunnel
China: Aggressive monetary policy easing is needed, but this is not possible in the current environment of a possible 'trade deal' and soaring food price inflation
China: Swine fever propels consumer price inflation to the highest level since 2012. Producer prices move deeper into the deflation zone
8. November 2019
USA: Consumer confidence is barely changed in November at an elevated level. The unanswered question is whether there is a Sino-US deal or not?
Germany: September trade statistics show signs of stabilisation, but no signs yet of an upcoming rebound
China: October report shows a more benign decline in foreign trade, but imports from the United States hit the lowest level since 2012
7. November 2019
Germany: Manufacturing output plunges at the fastest rate since October 2012. More weakness to come, according to IFO
A 'harmonious' Sino-US relationship? Sustainable? If so, who benefits?
Japan: Reuters Tankan survey - Manufacturing and service sentiment plunges in November - Bank of Japan ponders new monetary measures
6. November 2019
Spain: The economy is losing momentum. Industrial output is forecast to contract in the first half of 2020
Germany: Non-Euro-zone orders boost industrial orders as Economic Council lowers the 2020 forecast to below 1%
5. November 2019
USA: Service ISM index bounces back propelled by improving news flow. Nonetheless, the growth outlook remains weak, according to the combined surveys
USA: The trade deficit falls at the same time as manufacturers assess inventories to be too high. The deficit with the EU hit a new all-time high
China: The domestic economy is much weaker than reflected by 'upbeat sentiment' in the financial market. Beijing is 'cornered' by soaring pork prices
4. November 2019
USA: Factory orders decline again in September. More to come in the coming months, but the Federal Reserve managing to steepen the yield curve gives rise for some short-term optimism
Germany: Angela Merkel and her successor, AKK, are under siege within the CDU. The coalition government in Berlin is at risk
Switzerland: Consumer confidence plunges to the lowest level since 2009 as workers do not benefit from the recovery but feel the pain from the downturn
Unwind short-European-stock-market recommendation
1. November 2019
USA: A meagre rebound in manufacturing sentiment is a disappointment considering that the trade conflict has been 'solved'
USA: Robust labour market report is a function of growth in the past three months. The best forward-looking employment indicators herald weakness in the first half of 2020
Japan: The unemployment rate increases and the leading employment indicator deteriorates again in September
31. October 2019
Euro-zone: The economy is headed towards shallow growth. ECB President Lagarde accuses Germany and the Netherlands of sitting on their hands
China: PMI surveys support anecdotal evidence of a weak economy, as companies and households are aware of economic headwinds beyond a 'fantastic' trade deal with the USA
30. October 2019
USA: Private consumption fuels, as usual, economic growth in the third quarter. The best leading indicators herald significantly weaker growth
Euro-zone: Sentiment deteriorates across the board, but 'recession' is still not part of the equation, according to the survey
Italy's Matteo Salvini patiently waits for disillusioned voters to come to him. The strategy could prove highly successful in 2020
France: Q3 GDP report shows moderate growth sponsored by government spending. No signs of 'recession' but Paris has no fiscal ammo left
29. October 2019
USA: 'Lagging' consumer sentiment remains at an elevated level, but combined ISM indexes herald employment contraction in Q1
Spain: Consumer spending remains robust and sentiment remains high, although the country is heading for another national election. Far-right Vox Party is expected to see a sharp increase in support
France: Consumer confidence stays at an elevated level. Nonetheless, Paris and the rest of Europe are headed towards a long period of subdued growth
28. October 2019
Germany: Thuringia state election is yet another defeat to Chancellor Merkel. The far-left and far-right gain strongly
USA: Budget deficit soars as the White House's economic plan derails. Defence spending jumps
25. October 2019
Germany: IFO survey did not show further weakness, but the economy remains in the contraction zone
24. October 2019
USA: New home sales report disappoints in September, but still no signs of recession
USA: Durable goods orders report shows no signs yet of a decisive turnaround in corporate spending
Turkey: Russia and President Trump make leeway for a substantial rate cut. More to come as Moscow and Beijing provide Ankara with a life jacket
South Korea: Private investments put a drag on Q3 growth. Fiscal expansion and more rate cuts in the pipeline
23. October 2019
France: The repercussion of Germany's economic weakness is slowly impacting the rest of Europe. French manufacturing sentiment drops to the lowest level since March 2015
By Invitation: China's Corporate Social Credit System - Level Playing Field or Forced Digital Hand?
22. October 2019
USA: The Federal Reserve continues to sponsor the housing market. Existing home prices rose at the fastest rate since January 2018
Britain: CBI Industrial Trends survey predicts an 'unavoidable' recession 
21. October 2019
Taiwanese export orders and South Korean October trade data show no signs yet of an upcoming rebound
China: House price inflation continues to slow. Beijing still sits on its hands - but for how long?
Podcast interview with Steffen Jensen, Danish TV2's Middle East correspondent, about yet another crisis in Syria, European hypocrisy, Africa, and the risk of a new migrant crisis [FREE ACCESS]
18. October 2019
China: Growth hits the lowest level since 1992 as reluctant policymakers consider new measures. Aggressive money-printing is not possible as long as the trade negotiations are 'successful'
17. October 2019
USA: Industrial production contracted in September. The downturn in the manufacturing sector will accelerate in the coming months, according to the ISM survey
USA - Philadelphia Fed survey: A decline in the headline index disguises strong underlying details
Britain: Retail sales are holding up well considering strong political headwinds, but the economy is losing momentum. Prime Minister Johnson cannot afford to show weakness in the Brexit negotiations
16. October 2019
USA: Retail sales report disappoints in September, but private consumption will still make a robust contribution to Q3 GDP growth
South Korea: The Bank of Korea cuts policy rates as the economy faces deflation
China: Credit expansion is far too weak to support the economy. Yet another failed trade deal will fundamentally change the situation
15. October 2019
Germany: ZEW survey continues to show gloomy investor sentiment. Europe faces significant geopolitical risks
USA: Manufacturing Empire State survey shows signs of stabilising sentiment at a low level. The White House needs a new 'external enemy': Europe
China: Producer prices move deeper into the 'deflation zone'. Consumer price inflation boosted by a 69.3% increase in pork prices
14. October 2019
Euro-zone: Industrial output contracts but consumers are still supporting the economy. Nonetheless, the union faces several headwinds
Yet another disappointing China-USA trade deal, buying time for Beijing: The NBA case shows the flip side of having a significant exposure to China. The next challenge: the corporate social credit system
China: September trade report shows no signs of a rebound in global trade. Beijing could soon turn more hawkish towards Washington
11. October 2019
USA: The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index jumps back in line with the Conference Board consumer confidence index
India: Manufacturing output declines at the fastest rate since February 2013
Disruptive forces: The European Union faces the risk of a new migration wave as the conditions for the 'perfect storm' are building in the Middle East and North Africa
10. October 2019
Britain: Manufacturing output drops in August. The best leading indicators herald the steepest decline in output since 2009 in the coming months
Germany: Exports fell sharply in August. No signs of improvement as auto exporters face global cyclical headwinds and technology disruption
A short note on the China-USA trade negotiations: President Xi Jinping too close to the 'losing-face zone' poses a significant risk to the financial market
Japan: Machinery orders fall sharply as the aftermath of 'Abenomics' emerges. Also, a short note on the China-USA trade negotiations
9. October 2019
Australia: Consumer sentiment plunges to the lowest level since 2015
USA: Federal Reserve officially 'opts' again for balance sheet expansion even though this already started two months ago
8. October 2019
USA: Small business sentiment declines but remains at an elevated level. The job market tightens
A short note: The highly symbolic NBA-Beijing conflict shows the corporate risks attached to the Chinese market. These risks are not priced into the stock market
EU, Rome and Berlin face the risk of a new migration wave as the conditions for the 'perfect storm' are building in the Middle East and North Africa
Germany: Industrial output surprises to the upside in August, but the outlook remains grim. Berlin faces the risk of a new migration wave
Japan: The headline index in the Economy Watcher survey jumps while the 'future outlook index' plunges
7. October 2019
Japan downgrades growth forecast to 'worsening', which is usually associated with 'recession'
Germany: Domestic demand pulls industrial orders down in August. IFO survey heralds more weakness to come
4. October 2019
USA: The economy shows robust job growth but the forward-looking indicators herald significantly lower growth
When 'cutting corners' is no longer an efficient policy option
3. October 2019
USA: The service sector is headed in the same direction as the manufacturing sector. The Federal Reserve will turn significantly more dovish
Turkey: Another sharp decline in inflation boosts the likelihood of more rate cuts. President Erdogan faces increasing dissent within the AKP
Sweden: A shockingly weak service survey should give rise to more concern across Europe as most countries are now left without ammo
2. October 2019
USA: ADP Employment Report shows weak job creation in the manufacturing sector. Tomorrow's ISM survey will show whether this is spreading to the service sector
The risk of Chinese intervention in Hong Kong will increase sharply shortly after the anniversary celebrations in Beijing
Japan: Consumer confidence falls sharply as households fail to benefit from Abenomics. The risk of a deteriorating 'global perception' of the global economic situation
1. October 2019
There will be only delayed updates on October 1
USA: ISM manufacturing sentiment moves deeper into recession territory. The headline index hits the lowest level since June 2009
Sweden: Manufacturing sentiment falls sharply into the recession zone. Export orders index plunges
30. September 2019
Euro-zone unemployment rate declines to the lowest level since May 2008 at the same time as industrial sentiment plunges
Japan: Industrial output falls sharply in August, as global manufacturing sentiment continues to weaken. South Korean exports in September declined at the fastest pace since July 2009
China: Caixin manufacturing index bounces back, but there is no anecdotal evidence of stronger growth. Capital outflow is on the rise
Unplugged 'Travel Notes' from China: No signs of a growth rebound, but still plenty of opportunities although the low-hanging fruits are gone
19. September 2019
China trip: There will be no updates on September 20 and September 23-27 - Delayed updates on October 1
USA: Philadelphia Fed survey indicates robust short-term growth, but a sharp decline in the  'long-term' indicator closes the gap to a flat yield curve
USA: The Federal Reserve fails to fulfil excessive rate cut expectations in the financial market. Money market volatility gives rise to 'some concern'
18. September 2019
USA: Housing starts and permits skyrocketing to the highest level since 2007 raise new doubt about the Federal Reserve's dovish stance
Italy headed towards recession will propel Salvini back into power in 2020. Renzi abandons the Democratic Party and starts a new party
Japan: No signs yet of a rebound in foreign trade - Exports drop by 8.2% year-on-year in August
17. September 2019
USA: Industrial output surprises to the upside in August but the outlook heralds significant weakness
China: House price inflation declines in August. Beijing will do 'whatever it takes' to avoid asset price deflation but the situation is more complicated today
16. September 2019
USA: Empire State survey shows no signs of a rebound in the manufacturing sector. Corporate spending plans plunge in September
A short note on the impact of the drone attacks in Saudia Arabia
China: Weak economic statistics underscore that Beijing underestimates the power of headwinds
13. September 2019
USA: Solid retail sales as households still see no major headwinds. It will be difficult for the Federal Reserve to fulfil excessive rate cut expectations
USA: The Federal Reserve should not listen to the 'turncoat' - Historically low real bond yields, the federal budget deficit jumps and core inflation hits the highest level since 2008
12. September 2019
ECB cuts the deposit rate by ten basis points as Mario Draghi has come too far away from the shore from where he came
Japan: Reuters Tankan manufacturing index falls sharply in September as the growth outlook continues to deteriorate
11. September 2019
USA: Core producer inflation rose in August. The Federal Reserve is still lured into cutting policy rates in September
China: Monetary statistics show that Beijing is forced to act more aggressively in 2020. The yuan will continue to suffer