8. June 2022
Inflation has 'maybe' peaked, but supply-side inflation will stay elevated - and keep monetary policy tightening on track
7. June 2022
Germany: Industrial orders plunge in April - in line with the IFO survey but much weaker than the market consensus. More weakness to come.
Japan: Wages are on the rise but not fast enough to prevent real purchasing power erosion. Monetary tightening is around the corner
3. June 2022
There will be no updates on June 6 due to a public holiday in Denmark
USA: ISM service survey indicates more weakness, as inflation pressure will not go away
USA: Employment report shows strong employment growth but not accelerating wage increases. Not too hot, but the report still supports many rate hikes
South Korea: Higher-than-expected inflation will force the Bank of Korea to speed up its tightening process
2. June 2022
Brazil: The lull before the storm - and the choice between a rock and a hard place
Euro-zone: The case for even higher bond yields remains strong despite falling inflation in the second half of 2022. The Euro-zone bond market is still out of whack
1. June 2022
USA: ISM survey shows robust manufacturing activity - and price pressure remains at an elevated level but declining slightly. This keeps the Federal Reserve on a path of significant monetary tightening
European Union: The 'delayed delivery' of orders placed in Q3, 2021, creates havoc for many retailers, as the demand-side situation has changed radically
Germany: Retail sales take a significant beating, as inflation creates 'demand destruction'. More real purchasing power erosion coming
31. May 2022
USA: Households face headwinds, according to the Conference Board consumer survey but still not to the same extent as in 2008
Euro-zone: Inflation hitting a new all-time high will force the ECB to face the reality in the 'real world'. The ECB will follow the Federal Reserve
China: The 'reopening process' boosts business sentiment, but Beijing's Covid strategy will not go away, as the authorities eye the next variant, Omicron Ba.5
30. May 2022
Germany: Inflation jumps to the highest since 1952, as 'stability' is no longer part of Berlin's vocabulary. The ECB will be forced to tighten many times - and soon the Bank of Japan will follow
Euro-zone: EU Commission survey shows moderating inflation pressure - and weak consumer sentiment
25. May 2022
Geopolitics goes from 'bad' to 'terrible'. President Biden's 'Taiwan speech' and the 'Xinjiang files' could bring forward 'unavoidable' tensions between the West and China
Sweden: Consumer confidence drops to the lowest level since 2008, but the corporate sector underestimates what is coming. Geopolitics goes from 'bad' to 'terrible'
Germany: A 'delayed' refilling of inventories was the only growth contributor in the first quarter, but the demand-side situation has changed markedly since Q3 in 2021
24. May 2022
USA: New home sales statistics underscore that 'recession' is coming. A sharp decline in existing home prices is in the pipeline, according to a sharp increase in the inventory of unsold homes
France: Business sentiment is holding up supported by a rebound in service sentiment. Manufacturing inflation expectations jump to a new record high
Podcast interview with Claus Mathiesen, Royal Danish Defence College, and former defence attaché in Ukraine: Where is Russia headed? [language: Danish]
23. May 2022
Germany: The IFO survey shows an unchanged gloomy outlook, but the 'feared outcome 'has not yet hit the shore
20. May 2022
Germany: Inflation is out of control and voters are not pleased. Workers not only worry about inflation, but they also worry about job security in a tight labour market
Britain: Consumer confidence hits the lowest level since the First Oil Crisis - and the food crisis has only just started. China eases monetary policy
19. May 2022
USA: Philadelphia Fed survey further increases the risk of recession in the second half of 2022
Euro-zone: It feels as if European policymakers do not really understand what is coming
Japan's weak-yen policy backfires, as expensive imports of energy soar. The Bank of Japan making a U-turn poses another risk to the global financial market
18. May 2022
Britain: Inflation jumps to the highest since January 1982, as the Bank of England uses more time on finding excuses rather than confronting the problem, inflation
China: The impact of Beijing's policy mistakes hits the shores more broadly
17. May 2022
USA: Inflation boosts retail sales, but retail sales in volume terms contract significantly. The report reflects inflation and real purchasing power erosion
Euro-zone: The big slow-down will come abruptly and as a huge surprise to policymakers
16. May 2022
USA: Consumer sentiment plunges, but inflation expectations stabilise at an elevated level
Germany: There are no signs of slowing inflation pressure. Food price inflation gains the upper hand. The next factors are social and political tensions
China: The Great Leap Backward hits the economy in April. The risk of recession is high unless Beijing makes a 'highly unlikely' policy U-turn
12. May 2022
USA: Factory gates inflation seems to have peaked. The Federal Reserve seems to be in a better position to rein in inflation expectations than the ECB
The ECB underestimates what the bank has started: The EMU has turned 'south European' - a steep euro decline can no longer be ruled out
Britain: The economy loses momentum, but a far too accommodative monetary policy still supports home prices. More aggressive tightening is still in the pipeline despite slower growth
11. May 2022
There are no updates on Friday, May 13, due to a public holiday in Denmark
US CPI report: Energy inflation slows, but inflation is broadening to the entire economy. Inflation expectations will not go away without significant monetary tightening
Australia: Consumer sentiment plunges. The Australian bond market poses a warning to the Euro-zone
China: Inflation surprises to the upside - but Beijing makes no surprises. Instead, Xi Jinping doubles down on the Covid strategy
10. May 2022
USA: NFIB small business survey shows evidence of 'demand destruction' - the demand side is down and prices are on the rise
Podcast interview with Joerg Wuttke, President of the EU Chamber of Commerce in China: China is losing its credibility as the best sourcing location in the world
Insightview recommends taking short-term profit on the 'short US stock market' strategy
9. May 2022
China's trade report underscores the 'friendship' of Putin and Xi Jinping - but also more trouble for the mainland economy. FX reserves drop at the fastest rate since 2016
A short note on two cornered autocratic leaders 'forced' to tighten their grip on power more aggressively
6. May 2022
USA: The demand for workers is strong, but the supply is not increasing accordingly
Japan: 'Low' inflation combined with a reversal of monetary policy could make the yen an inflation hedge
5. May 2022
A short note on the Federal Reserve raising policy rates: Mr Powell, who also predicted 'transitory inflation', now forecasts a 'soft landing'. Is this a relief?
Germany: Industrial orders plunge in March as predicted by the IFO survey. More weakness in the pipeline as the ECB is no longer part of the solution
4. May 2022
USA: The ISM service survey shows slowing growth and inflation pressure at an all-time high - not a good cocktail for the stock market
Euro-zone: Retail sales dropped in March but are headed for an even steeper decline in the second quarter - and there will be no help from a 'cornered' ECB
Sweden: PMI service shows a strong rebound in the employment index to the highest level since 2018. The Riksbank has plenty of reasons to continue monetary tightening
USA: JOLTS survey shows how much the Federal Reserve is behind the curve. What are the consequences?
3. May 2022
Germany: A very tight labour market with a recession on the horizon shows how complicated the situation is for the ECB significantly behind the curve
Delayed update: US manufacturing ISM survey shows possible signs of 'demand destruction' caused by soaring inflation. Anyhow, the monetary tightening process remains on track
2. May 2022
Euro-zone: The corporate sector's inflation expectations jump to a new all-time high. 'In Europe, you haven’t even begun to see the effects of China lockdown. The ships coming into Europe today left Shanghai before the lockdown'
China: The official PMI survey shows a steep and broad-based decline in economic sentiment. This is a man-made downturn linked to the 'core leader'
29. April 2022
There will be no updates after 1 PM on Monday, May 2
USA: PCE inflation headline inflation hits the highest level since 1982 - core inflation declines
Germany: Import price inflation hits the highest level since 1974. Suddenly, ECB President Lagarde admits that 'her economic team made a mistake'
28. April 2022
USA: The economy contracted in Q1, but real domestic demand was strong. Inflation continues to go higher
Germany: Consumer price inflation hits the highest level since 1974. Unfortunately, there is more price pressure in the pipeline from Russia, China and food prices
Sweden: The Riksbank finally raises policy rates as inflation expectations hit a new all-time high, according to the NIER survey. Soon, the ECB will follow - and a reluctant Bank of Japan
27. April 2022
Germany: GfK consumer sentiment plunges to an all-time low as the economy faces the biggest crisis since the Second World War
26. April 2022
USA: The Conference Board consumer survey continues to see falling consumer expectations and elevated inflation but to a smaller extent than in Europe
A short note on China's handling of the Omicron variant: Is this more a political power game than about Omicron? Still, the consequence is 'the mother of all supply chain disruption'
25. April 2022
Britain: CBI survey shows a steep decline in business optimism
Germany: A minor rebound in the IFO business sentiment index does not change a dire growth outlook for the second half of 2022
The risk of a deep global recession means that Insightview recommends unwinding the 'long the Australian dollar against the euro and the US dollar' strategy
22. April 2022
Britain: Consumer confidence plunges as households face a tsunami of problems - and they are not 'transitory'
21. April 2022
USA: The Philadelphia Fed survey is now a 'clear indicator' of recession in H2
Podcast interview with Michael Chang, Yara Marine Technologies, in Shanghai: The consequences of what looks like a failed Covid strategy in China
France: Business sentiment stays at an elevated level in April. The 'risk of Marine Le Pen' declines after yesterday's TV debate
Dutch consumer confidence index plunges to a new all-time low significantly lower than in 2020. The impact of all skeletons falling out of the closet simultaneously is underestimated by the financial market
20. April 2022
USA: Existing home sales drop as higher mortgage rates and real wage erosion create headwinds
Germany: Factory gate prices skyrocketed in March. A failed Covid-strategy in China will add even more upward pressure on prices in the coming months
Podcast interview with Camilla Noerup Sorensen: The global consequences of President Putin's historical policy mistake of invading Ukraine - and a few words on the Danish EU defence opt-out referendum [Language: Danish]
19. April 2022
A short note on why the ECB has many good reasons to be scared when it comes to making a monetary U-turn - but it has no other option
China: A strong Q1 GDP report does not fit into the overall picture. The economy faces heavy headwinds - and Xi Jinping is under pressure
13. April 2022
It is a public holiday in Denmark from April 14 to April 18. Therefore, there will be no updates
USA: Factory price inflation just keeps going higher. Russia's invasion of Ukraine and China's catastrophic handling of Omicron will create the next leg of inflation
China: The global supply chain bottlenecks move from eastern ports to between provinces and cities due to the 'zero-tolerance strategy'
Britain: Inflation jumps to the highest since 1991. The Bank of England and other central banks are forced to tighten significantly. New Zealand hikes policy rates by 50 basis points
12. April 2022
USA: Consumer price inflation hits the highest level since 1981, but core inflation is lower than market expectations
USA: NFIB small business sentiment index declines close to the lowest level since April 2020. The six-month index plunges to a new all-time low. Inflation pressure increases
A short note on 'the mother of all repricing' in the European and US bond markets: The ECB's 'fantasy' could, potentially, topple the EU house of cards, unless the central bank pulls itself together
10. April 2022
There will be no updates on April 11
8. April 2022
Japan: The Bank of Japan plays with fire because voters are turning the other cheek - but for how long?
An important note about Russia's invasion of Ukraine: What if Marine Le Pen is elected the next president? Xi Jinping faces a tsunami of selfmade problems. Tensions in Pakistan. Delhi risks scoring an own goal
7. April 2022
Britain: The housing market remains the 'safest' inflation hedge - but for how long?
6. April 2022
Euro-zone: Factory gates inflation moves deeper into the 'demand destruction zone'
Germany: The February industrial orders statistics could prove to be a 'good month' in comparison to what comes next, according to the latest IFO survey
China: PMI service sentiment plunges to the lowest level since February 2020, as Xi Jinping's policy mistakes hit the shore. Beijing needs a new campaign to bolster Xi. Who will be the scapegoats for Xi's mistakes?
5. April 2022
USA: ISM service survey continues to show robust growth, but inflation pressure is on the rise
Sweden: PMI service survey shows a relatively benign 'Ukraine impact' on sentiment - so far - but inflation pressure is broadening
South Korea feels the heat: Energy prices are skyrocketing. Xi Jinping's China opts for Putin and is looking for a scapegoat to divert the attention from a failed Covid strategy
4. April 2022
Delayed update: US manufacturing ISM survey and employment report underscore the risk of stagflation. Several tsunamis will hit the shore in the coming months
Turkey: Inflation soars - but the war in Ukraine has turned President Erdogan into a winner
31. March 2022
Re-sell the US stock market
Insightview recommends taking short-term profit on the 'short German 30-year bond future' strategy
China: The official PMI composite index drops to the lowest level since February 2020
30. March 2022
Germany: Inflation hits the highest level since 1973, as the ECB has totally lost touch with the Euro-zone economy
Euro-zone: Inflation expectations skyrocket into the 'out of control' zone
Sweden: Business sentiment increases as consumer confidence collapses. Households' inflation expectations skyrocket in March
29. March 2022
Germany: Consumer sentiment collapses to the lowest level since June 2020, as the culmination of several policy mistakes hit the shore at the same time
France: Consumer confidence plunges. The ECB cannot ignore a record-high share of households seeing soaring inflation - the highest since 1971
25. March 2022
Germany: A steep decline in the IFO expectations index is a harbinger of recession in Q2 and Q3. Beijing's Covid strategy will create the next inflation leg
Britain: Consumer confidence plunges as inflation pressure increases. Anecdotal evidence from China does not give rise to inflation optimism. The impact of lockdowns is broadening
24. March 2022
The next leg in the 'mother of all repricing' in the European and US bond markets
France: The big reckoning of aggressive stimulus measures in 2020 and 2021 and now Russia's invasion of Ukraine has started
23. March 2022
Podcast interview with Carsten Rasmussen, Danish Brigadier General, defence attaché, at the Danish embassy in Moscow: President Putin's invasion of Ukraine [language: Danish]
Britain: Inflation jumps to the highest level since 1992 as 'the mother of all repricing' has started in the bond market
22. March 2022
Britain: Factory gates inflation pressure jumps to the highest since the early 1970s - Euro-zone yield curve steepens
21. March 2022
Buoyant Taiwanese export orders, but real purchasing power erosion in the US and Europe will create headwinds
Germany: Factory gate inflation soars. Brave Green Party ministers quickly replace ideology with 'realpolitik', as they realise the threat from Putin - and China - is on the rise
18. March 2022
Ukraine: There appears to be a significant U-turn in sentiment on Chinese social media
17. March 2022
USA: Philadelphia Fed survey shows strong short-term momentum, but a recession in H2 - and inflation pressure at the highest since the second oil crisis in 1979
Australia: A strong economic rebound creates a faster-than-expected recovery in the labour market. The commodity sector is buoyant. Buy the Australian dollar
The US Federal Reserve faces a 'Volcker moment' - but a 'little late'. Is the stock market prepared for a 'loyal friend' in Beijing?
16. March 2022
USA: Soaring energy prices hit non-energy consumption in February. Secular rearmament will support growth but not be enough to mitigate the negative impact of inflation on private consumption
China: Public support for Russia seems to be on the decline, as Putin is seen as a 'dead man walking' - and the Chinese hate betting on a loser. Nonetheless, Beijing is caught on the wrong foot in the Ukraine conflict
15. March 2022
US defence and energy sectors 'coming to the rescue of Europe' will add more upward pressure on inflation in the United States
Germany: Investor sentiment collapses as the economy faces a chaotic future - but Berlin has, fortunately, abandoned the 'appeasement policy'
China: The economy bounces back, but Beijing's 'best friend', Putin, has turned into a heavy drag. The big exit from China will accelerate unless Xi Jinping gets rid of 'excess weight'
14. March 2022
A short note on the Ukraine Crisis, Omicron hitting 'unprotected China', inflation pressure - and why a 'peace deal' with Putin will change nothing
11. March 2022
USA: Consumer sentiment falls sharply in March. Inflation expectations jump to 5.4% from 4.9% - the highest since 1981
The ECB finally recognises that price stability is essential, not least in a 'war economy'. Christine Lagarde is losing ground in the Governing Council
10. March 2022
USA: The February inflation report was a function of the time before 'Ukraine'. Russia's invasion will only reinforce the need for tighter monetary policy
A short note on an unsuccessful Russia-Ukraine meeting - and China's irreversible support for Russia
Britain: RICS survey shows buoyant house prices in February. The question is whether a 'war economy' is positive for house prices - and positive for a 'war economy'?
9. March 2022
EU: In a 'war economy', national security investments in defence and energy infrastructure have priority at the expense of private consumption
China: Inflation is benign, but many countries now take an unfavourable view of China supporting a 'war criminal' in Moscow
8. March 2022
USA: NFIB small business survey is not yet impacted by Russia's invasion of Ukraine. This will be visible in the coming months
Germany: 'Summer was coming', according to industrial output statistics in January. 'Day zero' will trigger a huge boost to production from mid-2022 - but at the expense of private consumption
7. March 2022
A short update of 'the phoney war'
Germany: Industrial orders bounce back, but economic statistics from before 'Day Zero' are history
4. March 2022
USA: The February employment report shows a buoyant labour market - and no wage increases. The end of Covid and higher inflation seem to make people re-enter the labour force?
3. March 2022
USA: Soaring inflation seems to make inroads into service sentiment. More inflation in the pipeline - and the risk of war
Euro-zone: Producer prices skyrocketing leaves the ECB no other option than to tighten monetary policy. Anything else will prove counterproductive. We have now a 'war economy'
Turkey: Misfortunes rarely come singly. Consumer prices jump by 4.8% month-on-month in February. Ankara, Brussels and Washington are suddenly united about one goal - Putin
2. March 2022
Germany: Today's labour market report underscores why it is in the strategic interest of the ECB to tighten monetary policy
Euro-zone: Inflation jumps in February - and is headed even higher after Berlin's long-overdue policy U-turn
Geopolitical Update presentation: Europe at War – or the World at War?
1. March 2022
USA: Manufacturing sentiment improves shortly before the economy moves into a 'war economy'. Inflation remains elevated
Podcast interview with Casper Wichmann: China chose to support President Putin, who is today hated by millions of Europeans. Is everything going according to Beijing's plan?
China: PMI survey is history. Beijing has more to worry about - for instance, China's friend in Moscow, Putin
28. February 2022
Spain's inflation rate jumps to the highest since 1986. Aggressive EU spending on energy and defence infrastructure will hit debt in the Euro-zone periphery
The impact of Germany again turning into a significant military power, the positive consequences of a more united and determined EU and what lies ahead for the EU-China relationship after Beijing bet on Putin
Take profit in 'short the US stock market'
25. February 2022
EU Commission survey conducted before 'day zero' provides no information about the future - except that inflation pressure remains high
The US dispatching equipment and soldiers to Europe and European leaders seeing 'the penny dropped', mean aggressive public sector investments - and higher bond yields
24. February 2022
Today is 'day zero' for Germany - Listen to a very interesting Bild interview with CDU leader Friedrich Merz. Germany-Russia decoupling has started and dramatic rearmament will come
France: The rate of price increases continues to surprise households. EU member states will launch 'emergency spending' towards boosting energy capacity and defence
Europe moves from '1938' to '1939'. A significant boost to military spending is coming. Insightview recommends re-selling the German 30-year government bond future. A rethinking of European energy policy will come sooner rather than later due to 'new priority list'
23. February 2022
South Korea: Bank of Korea business survey makes leeway for more rate hikes. A steep increase in the export price index reveals strong imported inflation pressure in the European Union
Germany: Consumer sentiment falls again as stability vanishes. Bild Zeitung - 'Were we too nice to Kremlin?'
France: Service sentiment bounces back sharply - but inflation pressure gains momentum in the manufacturing sector despite falling energy prices
22. February 2022
Germany: Light at the end of the Covid-tunnel boosts IFO business sentiment, but geopolitics and faster-monetary-tightening will overshadow tailwinds in 2022. Companies raise output prices
Russia's invasion of Ukrainian soil will trigger a dramatic increase in EU member states' defence spending although a repetition of '1938' remains a risk. The eyes are now on Beijing
21. February 2022
Germany: Factory gates inflation accelerates as the ECB is running out of excuses. PPI report shows strong price gains excluding energy
Putin's profit from warmongering - and why Germany needs to make several fateful decisions before it is too late
18. February 2022
USA: Buoyant existing home sales statistics - but the housing market will soon face heavy headwinds from real purchasing power erosion and QT
France: The seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate drops to pre-pandemic level - but the consequences of many EU policy mistakes are now hitting the shore simultaneously
17. February 2022
US Philadelphia Fed survey heralds weaker growth but inflation pressure remains elevated
Investors should use flight-to-quality rallies triggered by 'President Putin playing around with Nato and the EU' to sell the bond market
16. February 2022
Insightview recommends taking profit on the 'short German 30-year bond future' strategy
USA: Retail sales jumped in January - or was the number boosted by inflation? Import prices rose again in January
Britain: The January inflation report shows more price pressure in the pipeline, as the consequences of all European policy mistakes appear to hit the shore at the same time
Podcast interview with Joergen Delman: Xi Jinping in a year of destiny, isolation, foreign policy ambitions, Taiwan - and why Ukraine is closely followed in Beijing
China: Falling pork prices, no significant supply chain inflation and weak domestic demand put a lid on inflation. Are Chinese stocks cheap from a cyclical point of view?
15. February 2022
USA: Inflation pressure will not go away without aggressive monetary tightening - and the Federal Reserve knows all too well
Japan: Q4 GDP report benefits from a decline in Covid cases. The opposite is the case in the first quarter of 2022. 'Ukraine' is bad news for Japan
14. February 2022
What happens to the bond market if Russia invades Ukraine?
11. February 2022
USA: The boomerang is coming back making significant inroads into household sentiment, according to the University of Michigan consumer survey
Podcast interview with Sten Rynning, professor of War Studies: The EU must learn from Munich in 1938 and get used to deterrence as a political weapon
10. February 2022
USA: Inflation continues going higher. The Federal Reserve will be forced to act aggressively as more price pressure is in the pipeline
China: Monetary statistics still show only 'reluctant' easing even though the economy faces external headwinds and a bumpy domestic road
Britain: RICS house price statistics underscore why central banks are not only behind but far behind the curve
9. February 2022
Brazil: Double-digit inflation combined with Lula-victory in October will keep policy rates elevated after the election
The next leg in the bond market sell-off will not come from inflation
8. February 2022
USA: The small business survey from NFIB indicates slower growth and more price pressure, although inflation will peak in March
Japan: Service sentiment plunges in January, as households are hit by a new Covid wave and soaring inflation expectations
7. February 2022
China: Service sentiment takes a beating in January. Is President Xi Jinping's policy turning into economic headwinds?
4. February 2022
USA: Surprisingly strong employment report and soaring wage inflation underscore the extent of the Federal Reserve's huge policy mistake
Germany: Industrial orders continue to increase supported by domestic demand. Friedrich Merz makes a strong entry as new CDU leader while Scholz sees a steep decline in support
3. February 2022
USA: Service sentiment declines in January. Price inflation staying close to an all-time high bodes ill for the upcoming inflation reports
Euro-zone: Factory gates inflation jump to a new record high at the same time as service inflation gains momentum. The question is now only 'how' and not 'when' Lagarde will 'disguise' a policy shift
Turkey moves into the hyperinflation zone. Ukraine Crisis provides a tiny window of opportunity for President Erdogan to regain support from Washington and Brussels
2. February 2022
USA: ADP employment contraction as Omicron hits the shore. Nonetheless, labour shortages still prevail, according to the JOLTS survey
Euro-zone inflation hits a new record high in January as the ECB and economists continue to underestimate the impact of higher energy prices
1. February 2022
USA: The manufacturing ISM survey shows a decline in the headline index but a sharp increase in inflation pressure. Is the Federal Reserve too complacent? Yes
The Federal Reserve and ECB are warned, but they act as if they have plenty of time
Germany: Retail sales plunge in December, as inflation prevails over a strong labour market. German households no longer trust the ECB - and the rest of the EU no longer trusts Berlin
31. January 2022
Germany's January inflation report is the perfect picture of how wrong the ECB has been regarding inflation in 2021 and 2022
China: PMI surveys indicate more economic weakness. After the Winter Olympics, Beijing will use 'Taiwan' to divert public attention from the economy and cracks in the Covid strategy
28. January 2022
Euro-zone: Economic sentiment declines as inflation expectations are on the rise. Sooner or later, the penny will also drop for ECB President Lagarde if we are lucky!
Sweden: The economy expanded strongly in Q4, but forward-looking surveys indicate slowing momentum. 'Persistent inflation pressure' is now Europe's biggest problem
27. January 2022
USA: Higher inventories propel growth higher in Q4. Price deflator skyrockets far beyond market expectations
Spain: The economy benefits from the 'beginning of the end of the pandemic', but the real aftermath of Covid has just started
Federal Reserve meeting: Soon, the 'big unwind' will start. The ramifications for the 'nanny economy' could be huge, which is reflected in soaring real bond yields
26. January 2022
USA: New home sales bounce back after a weak last quarter of 2021, but the report still heralds significantly slower GDP growth by late 2022
France: Inflation continues to exceed households' expectations, as 'transitory' is now replaced by 'pent-up' price increases
25. January 2022
USA: Households are becoming downbeat about the future, as inflation expectations stay at an elevated level
USA: Philadelphia Fed's service survey shows price pressure hitting an all-time high - and a steep decline in the growth indicators
Britain: Inflation pressure jumps to the highest level since 1977. Transitory? No, and the Bank of England will, therefore, act decisively
Germany: IFO sentiment bounces back, but the 'implied' growth outlook remains weak
21. January 2022
Europe is exposed to long-term, not transitory, problems. The solution is not an election-winner
Britain: Consumer confidence drops as several 'boomerangs of policy mistakes' are now coming back with a vengeance. Fiscal policy replacing monetary policy will price credit according to market risks
20. January 2022
USA: The Philadelphia Fed survey continues to show strong inflation pressure
France: Service sector business sentiment drops in December, as the country is exposed to yet another Covid wave - but manufacturing sentiment jumps
Germany's PPI report shows neither signs of 'transitory' nor a 'base effect'. The ECB is short of good excuses
19. January 2022
Britain: Inflation jumps to the highest level in 30 years. Energy capacity constraints require higher policy rates and real bond yields - and not vice versa
18. January 2022
USA: The Empire State survey continues to show strong inflation pressure
Fiscal policy taking over the role of monetary policy will price the cost of credit according to market risks. The 'green transition' will require high private savings
Britain: Soaring unfilled vacancies will lead to a significantly lower unemployment rate - and faster monetary tightening
17. January 2022
China: The economy ended 2021 on a weak note caused by a very weak property market. PBOC cuts borrowing costs
15. January 2022
Podcast interview with Morten Springborg, C Worldwide Asset Management: Europe's green transition will create several energy crises in the coming years
14. January 2022
USA: Household sentiment remains depressed despite the strongest labour market for decades. Consumers' one and five-year inflation expectations increase again
The Outlook 2022 presentation is now available
China: The export sector was the growth engine in 2021. This will not be enough in 2022 due to omicron and significantly tighter monetary conditions in the United States and Europe
13. January 2022
USA: The next leg in the inflation story will come from wage pressure and service inflation
12. January 2022
USA: Consumer price inflation hits the highest level since June 1982. Getting inflation expectations back into the bottle requires aggressive monetary tightening
China: Beijing is in monetary 'stimulus mode', but this will turn out to be a slow process
China: Slow domestic demand, regulatory measures and falling pork prices put a lid on inflation in December. Has omicron made a hole in the zero-tolerance wall?
11. January 2022
Brazil: Inflation seems to have peaked, but a prudent central bank will hike policy rates again in February
USA: Small business sentiment survey shows wage inflation acceleration. The case for a first-rate-hike of 0.5% is on the rise
Japan: A weak recovery and low inflation. Tokyo used all ammo in the last two decades
7. January 2022
USA: The jobless rate dropping below the 'natural rate of unemployment' makes it difficult to fill job offers. Instead, this creates wage inflation
Euro-zone: Inflation continues higher as the underlying problems will not go away in 2022. A reluctant ECB president Lagarde 'beyond the reach of rational argument' will be forced to tighten
6. January 2022
USA: Service sentiment drops from an all-time low, but service price inflation stays at the highest level since 2005
US Federal Reserve Minutes report shows that the central bank has lost its way. Policymakers move from 'the first rate hike in 2024' to 'monetary tightening coming sooner rather than later'
Germany: Industrial orders bounced back in November but headwinds gain momentum. Russia, omicron, and faster-than-expected Federal Reserve tightening
5. January 2022
USA: JOLTS survey shows a sharp jump in the quit rate, which will lead to strong wage gains in the first half of 2022
France: Consumers are in a much better position than in neighbouring Germany, so far, but a huge public sector debt could become an issue after the upcoming election
4. January 2022
USA: ISM manufacturing index declines in December - and inflation pressure declines as the anatomy of inflation changes
Germany: Unfilled vacancies hit a new all-time high in December as cost pressure increases
China: Manufacturing sentiment bounces back. Omicron gaining a foothold could turn into a game-changer as the mainland is 'unprotected'
3. January 2022
The European cocktail: Higher inventories and falling purchasing power will be disinflationary in Q2 - but does not prevent monetary tightening
Turkey: The Erdoganomics hurricane continues to devastate the economy. Inflation moves into the hyperinflation zone
The second inflation wave: Delayed pent-up price increases will trigger profound monetary tightening - and, consequently, slightly lower inflation in the second half of 2022
21. December 2021
The last day of updates is on December 21. Insightview will be back on January 3
Germany: Consumer sentiment plunges as households face multiple headwinds. Will Christian Lindner opting for Nagel instead of Scnabel as the next President of the Bundesbank make a difference?
20. December 2021
Britain: Factory gates inflation showing no signs of slowing hits industrial output. Natural gas prices soar to a new all-time high
Podcast interview with Peter Viggo Jakobsen from the Royal Defence College: Geopolitical risks in 2022
17. December 2021
Germany: The economy moves deeper into a downswing, as public opinion turns against the ECB. Soon, the penny will even drop for ECB's Lagarde
16. December 2021
USA: Philadelphia Fed survey details show signs of 'demand destruction'. Short and long-term demand indicators fall sharply in December
France: Service sentiment takes a beating. President Macron is no longer a front-runner in next year's elections
USA: The Federal Reserve is still just talking. Mr Powell needs to walk the talk - and upcoming inflation statistics will force him to do so
15. December 2021
USA: A weak November retail sales report shows inflation creating headwinds to households
Britain: Inflation jumps and more is coming, as 'state-subsidised capitalism' is digging its own grave
China: The 'slump' continues - and now comes omicron - and the White House expands its 'blacklist'
14. December 2021
USA: Headline and core factory gates inflation jumps to a new record high. More in the pipeline. Omicron in China boosts the risk of more global supply chain disruption in Q1
USA: NFIB small business survey indicates 8% inflation in the first quarter of 2022. Six-month outlook index hit a new all-time low
Britain: A tight labour market raises wages for workers with the right skills, but real wage erosion could soon turn into the main trend. Natural gas prices hit a new all-time high
13. December 2021
Germany: Wholesales price inflation hitting the highest since 1962 is a harbinger of higher consumer price inflation in the first quarter of 2022
10. December 2021
USA: University of Michigan consumer sentiment index bounces back from a low level as a tight labour market mitigates the negative impact of higher inflation - as long as it lasts
USA: Consumer price inflation jumps to the highest since 1982 - and there is more in the pipeline as the Federal Reserve has not yet walked the talk
Podcast interview with Torbjörn Hamnmark, the Third Swedish National Pension Fund, AP3: How to adapt to what looks like several paradigm shifts in the global economy and financial market
9. December 2021
Brazil and Poland raise policy rates, precisely as 'know-it-all experts' in Europe and the US taught them in the past. Today, the ECB and Federal Reserve need advice from abroad
China: Consumer price inflation is not the problem - but a 'domestic slump'
7. December 2021
Germany: Industrial output bounces back in October as there is some relief from the global supply chain, but factory gates price pressure remains high
China: Imports propelled higher by restocking. What could prove to be the implications of the 'Taiwan question' on top of Beijing's agenda after the winter Olympics?
6. December 2021
China cuts banks' reserve requirement ratio by 50 basis points in a highly defensive move
Germany: Industrial orders plunged in October. Export companies face more trouble because Annalena Baerbock could radically change foreign policy - unless she is hit by the 'economic-reality roadblock'
3. December 2021
USA: The service sector showing signs of accelerating demand to a new all-time high and strong price pressure will force the Federal Reserve to act sooner rather than later
USA: The November labour market report shows a weak nonfarm payroll number but a sharp decline in the unemployment rate
Turkey: Inflation exceeds 20% and factory gates prices skyrocket by 55%. No light at the end of the tunnel
2. December 2021
Brazil was in a 'technical recession' in the third quarter. The central bank could be forced to raise policy rates by 400 basis points in 2022
Euro-zone producer price inflation skyrockets to 22%. It is challenging for households and companies to maintain confidence in the ECB
Podcast interview with Kirsten Malling Biering, a former Danish diplomat and ambassador to France, about the French Presidential election in 2022
1. December 2021
USA: The disruption of the global supply chain has not yet dented the demand side to the same extent as in Europe, according to the manufacturing ISM survey
Switzerland enjoys the benefit of a strong currency: Low inflation and robust growth. Conversely, the ECB's next decision will be crucial for the union
Germany: In October, supply chain disruption put a lid on retail sales. Inflation across the board will create headwinds to household spending going into 2022
30. November 2021
USA: Conference Board consumer survey shows skyrocketing inflations expectations - and the tightest labour market since 1978
Euro-zone inflation soars: History shows that 'uncontrolled inflation' most often creates the foundation for dramatic political changes
China: The official PMI index bounces back, but the economy is headed for significantly slower growth in 2022. Omicron and 'zero-tolerance strategy' spells trouble for the economy
29. November 2021
Germany: Consumer price inflation jumping to the highest since 1992 erodes the credibility of the ECB, according to German voters
EU Commission business and consumer survey shows inflation pressure is broadening to the entire economy
Turkey: Consumer confidence plunges to the lowest ever. Hyperinflation may now be the next phase unless Erdogan pulls himself together
26. November 2021
Australia shows the implications of a central bank no longer having a love affair with bond investors. This is a warning to the ECB and the Federal Reserve
Sweden: NIER Economic Tendency Survey shows no signs of falling inflation pressure. The opposite is the case
25. November 2021
Germany: The 'perfect match coalition' is what the voters opted for. The big winner is the FDP, but the coalition agenda could turn into a nightmare for the Green Party
24. November 2021
Britain: Industrial orders and inflation skyrocket to the highest since 1977. A rate hike on December 16 comes too late to restore the credibility of the Bank of England
Germany: The November IFO survey is a harbinger of no growth going into 2022
France: Insee business survey continues to show a robust recovery, but inflation pressure is still on the rise
23. November 2021
Euro-zone: Consumer confidence declines as inflation has turned into the primary headwind. What does Christine Lagarde have in common with President Erdogan?
18. November 2021
There will be no updates on November 19 and 22
USA: Philadelphia Fed survey shows skyrocketing inflation expectations, strong short-term demand and weak long-term growth
Turkey is maybe a special case, but the Federal Reserve and the ECB are using many of the same arguments of denial as President Erdogan
Central banks talking about 'transitory inflation' when fiscal policymakers are still going berserk seems naive. Tokyo considers launching 'the mother of all fiscal stimulus packages'
17. November 2021
USA: A weak housing market report in October does not change a picture of very strong housing demand
Britain: Inflation jumps in October as the Bank of England and other central banks look like Kamikaze pilots
16. November 2021
USA: Strong retail sales in October, but downbeat consumer surveys indicate heavy headwinds from inflation
British companies absorbing former furloughed workers do not prevent 'unfilled vacancies' from hitting a new all-time high
15. November 2021
USA: Empire State survey shows high demand, but also companies' limited ability to fulfil orders. Inflation and delivery time jump - and the future outlook declines
China: Economic activity is still trending lower despite a minor blip in October. House prices continue the downward trend
By Invitation: Spinning China's Communist Party History in favour of Xi Jinping
12. November 2021
USA: Consumer sentiment declines as the Federal Reserve leaving inflation expectations out of the bottle creates more headwinds than tailwinds. Recession will be needed to get it back into the bottle
Germany: Wholesale price inflation jumping to the highest since 1974 could have significant domestic and global ramifications
11. November 2021
Podcast interview with Jacob Pedersen, Head of Equity Research at Sydbank: Anecdotal evidence of supply chain disruption but no signs yet of significant labour shortage problems
'Congratulation' to Japan: Producer price inflation jumps to the highest level since 1980
10. November 2021
USA: Yet another catastrophic inflation report turns Powell into a transitory figure at the Federal Reserve
The Reserve Bank of Australia shows how difficult the long-overdue monetary U-turn will be in the United States and Europe. Only minor signs of 'less commitment' lead to the biggest yield increase since 1994
Podcast interview with Pelle Dragsted, a left-wing Danish politician and former member of the Danish parliament: Why have the left and market liberals been hesitant when it comes to criticising the European Central Bank's aggressive monetary expansion?
China: Factory gates inflation hits the highest since the devaluation in 1994 leaving less room for manoeuvring for Beijing
9. November 2021
USA: PPI inflation report shows domestic supply chain inflation hitting a new all-time high of 22.6% year-on-year
USA: NFIB small business survey is a harbinger of 6% consumer price inflation - and stagflation
Japan: Service sentiment jumps in October. Higher inflation poses a threat to consumer sentiment, but Tokyo plans to launch a huge fiscal stimulus package equivalent to 5% of GDP
8. November 2021
China's trade surplus hits a new all-time high as the US and European dependence on Beijing continues to increase. Chinese winter arriving earlier-than-expected spells trouble for Europe
USA: The long-overdue infrastructure bill is well-timed if it was combined with monetary tightening. Only a 'car crash' can convince the Federal Reserve to raise policy rates
5. November 2021
USA: A strong labour market will see even more support from an economy that will show stronger demand in the coming months
Germany: Manufacturing output continues lower - now down by 9.5% compared to February 2020. The ECB does not recognise it is part of the problem
4. November 2021
Euro-zone factory gates inflation hits a new record high - but no signs of relief. Inflation expected to impact coalition negotiations in Berlin
Germany: Industrial orders disappoint again as supply chain disruption hits across the board. No signs of relief. Covid cases hit a new all-time high
3. November 2021
USA: ISM service survey shows the headline index hitting a new all-time high - and a sharp increase in inflation pressure to a level not seen since 2005
Sweden: The next leg of inflation - soaring service prices. The window of opportunity is closing for Europe's central banks
Turkey: Does higher inflation in October mean lower policy rates? Yes, according to 'Erdoganomics'. The economy is back to the 2008 level
2. November 2021
South Korea: October inflation report makes leeway for the next policy hike in November
Podcast interview with Steen Jakobsen, Saxo Bank: What is the main purpose of central banks ignoring inflation - and what are the consequences?
1. November 2021
USA: Manufacturing ISM survey shows no signs of softening inflation pressure - the opposite is the case. Plenty of shortages put a drag on orders
USA: Today, the foundation for strong wage increases is much better than after the financial crisis due to more adverse demographics
China: The economy, which shows more signs of weakness and higher inflation pressure, makes the road ahead a delicate balancing act
29. October 2021
Euro-zone: The economy benefits from financial repression, and accumulated household savings, which are now being eroded by inflation
Q3 GDP report: France enjoys the benefit of not following in Germany's footsteps - so far
Japan: Manufacturing output plunges to the lowest level seen since August 2020 as global supply disruption takes its toll
28. October 2021
USA: The Q3 GDP report shows weak real GDP growth - and significant inventory build-up
Spain's October CPI index jumps far beyond market expectations. Soon, the biggest shortage could turn out to be 'excuses' at the ECB and the Federal Reserve
Sweden: The economy grows strongly in Q3 and the outlook remains strong. CPI inflation pressure is building
27. October 2021
USA: A moderate durable goods orders report does not change the fact that capital spending plans are on the rise
Germany: 'Confusing' consumer survey shows an unchanged headline index, but income expectations plunge as inflation expectations soar
26. October 2021
USA: New home sales report moves a bit away from the 'unthinkable' - recession. Nonetheless, service price inflation accelerates, according to a regional non-manufacturing survey
Sweden: Factory gates inflation hits the highest since the currency turmoil in the early 1990s
South Korea: The global supply chain mess hits investments in Q3. More disruption in the pipeline - not least from geopolitics
25. October 2021
The stimulus measures have turned into a dangerous boomerang: The IFO survey is now a harbinger of significantly slower growth
22. October 2021
Britain: The first wave of higher energy prices hit the shore in September. The second wave hit in October, according to the latest GfK consumer confidence survey
21. October 2021
USA: Philadelphia Fed survey shows 'moderate' short-term demand, but also that shortages and higher prices will hit activity soon
Britain: Factory gates inflation pressure is now at the highest since the 'Second Oil Crisis' in 1979 - and winter has not even arrived
The service sector propels business sentiment higher, as France sees tailwinds from a successful vaccination strategy and by not replicating Berlin's energy policy
Podcast interview with think tank Europa: Is there a risk that the energy crisis derails the European Union's green transition?
20. October 2021
The Germans are losing the remaining confidence in a European Central Bank, which has completely lost touch with reality on the ground
China: The 'official' decline in the housing market has started. Beijing discusses again the introduction of a national property tax
19. October 2021
President Erdogan against the rest of Turkey
18. October 2021
USA: The manufacturing sector comes to a standstill caused by bottlenecks in the global supply chain
China's economic growth slows as Beijing can no longer ignore a high number of headwinds, which have properties of being 'secular'
Global macroeconomic presentation: Inflation, energy prices, China and the next coalition in Germany
14. October 2021
There will be no updates on Friday, October 15
USA: Slightly softer headline and core PPI inflation in September, but core intermediate materials inflation hits the highest level since the mid-1970s
China: Factory gates inflation hits the highest level since 1995. Many factories are forced to shut down production without any notice
13. October 2021
USA: Today's consumer price report shows no signs of transitory inflation. A tight labour market boosts the risk of 'second-round inflation'
China trade report: Is the economy slowing as dramatically as outlined by the foreign media? No, Insightview's sources argue
12. October 2021
USA: NFIB small business survey shows soaring inflation pressure - 'Inflation is running strong but the Federal Reserve is only running away'
Germany: Investor sentiment takes a 'short-term' beating in October. Several headwinds are slowly emerging
Podcast interview: The 'collapse' of the global supply chains and logistics. 'On the ground' insights from China. Decoupling or recoupling?
11. October 2021
Italy: The economy is exposed to tailwinds from a successful vaccination process and Prime Minister Draghi's ability to get financial support from Brussels
8. October 2021
USA: The September employment report shows more evidence of an economy short of nearly everything - also common sense at the Federal Reserve
Podcast interview with Stig Thoegersen, China expert: Is Beijing's policy of common prosperity just a policy tool to retain power?
7. October 2021
Britain: House prices jump at the fastest rate since 2007. Central banks fighting the wrong war could soon be forced to shock the financial market
Germany: Industrial production plunges to the lowest level since September 2020. The EU is now Moscow's hostage - if anyone did not know already
6. October 2021
USA: ADP Employment Report shows strong jobs growth in a very tight labour market
Germany: Industrial orders plunge as supply chain chaos turns ugly. It will get worse as European policymakers have learned nothing from the 'invasion of Russia'
5. October 2021
USA: Service sector sentiment remains buoyant, but inflation pressure regains momentum
No signs of slower Euro-zone factory gates inflation. China shipping expert: 'Get used to elevated container freight rates out of China'
4. October 2021
The peculiar policy response of central banks and politicians to external shocks moved one step too far: The 'reckoning' approaches as the penny will soon drop at central banks
1. October 2021
USA: ISM manufacturing index improves at the same time as inflation at the factory gates regains momentum
Euro-zone inflation jumps in September - but the trend of elevated inflation has just started. IG Metall boss calls for a 'decent increase instead of real wage losses'
Sweden: PMI survey still shows a 'buoyant' economy, but inflation pressure jumps. Lagarde warns against 'overreacting' although the ECB has not yet reacted
Japan's Tankan survey shows improvement. Nonetheless, this is history as the aftermath of Western 'Covid stimulus measures' has hit the shore
30. September 2021
Podcast interview with Ole Hansen, commodity market expert: Is the rally in commodity prices really transitory - or is the world headed for a new super-cycle?
China: The manufacturing sector facing logistics bottlenecks, Covid and energy outages plunges into the contraction zone
29. September 2021
EU Commission's business and consumer survey: No signs of dark clouds on the horizon - so far - but inflation pressure soars
Germany: The 'perfect storm' will create significantly higher inflation - and the risk of derailing the 'climate change agenda' in Europe. The credibility of European policymakers is at risk
28. September 2021
US Conference Board consumer survey: The boomerang created by a very expensive recovery after the pandemic is coming back with a vengeance
China: Corporate profit under pressure as centrally-committed green emission targets, post-Covid-related high demand and supply constraints create heavy headwinds. Energy blackouts on the rise - Insightview sources
Germany: The Green Party and the FDP are now negotiating directly at the same time as Berlin's energy policy is on the edge of collapsing
27. September 2021
Updated Bundestag election: The Green Party turning left and FDP's Christian Lindner saying in 2017 'it is better not to govern than to govern badly' spell trouble for upcoming coalition negotiations
24. September 2021
The possible outcome of the Bundestag election: Only two viable coalitions out of five possible
Germany's IFO survey: The 'collapse' of the global supply chain hits manufacturing and retailer sentiment
Britain Gfk Consumer survey: Soaring energy prices, Brexit and tax hike plan overshadow tailwinds from a tight labour market
23. September 2021
Western central banks will be forced to raise the white flag - but this will come too late to prevent a hard landing because the bottlenecks remain. Norway raises policy rates
France: In relative comparison, the economy is in a better position than most European countries. Moreover, the main energy source is nuclear power
22. September 2021
USA: The classic indicators show signs of a 'late-cycle economy' caused by capacity constraints
21. September 2021
Beijing's response to the long-overdue Evergrande crisis will reflect 'common prosperity' and President Xi Jinping's willingness to take risks - but Beijing aims for a 'controlled unwinding'
20. September 2021
Germany: Factory gates inflation skyrockets to a new record high. More in the pipeline as the impact of Merkel's 'energy policy' hits the shore
The email-server problem has been solved
17. September 2021
USA: UoM survey shows surprisingly downbeat consumer sentiment as households' inflation expectations continue higher
The risk of a hard landing in the global economy is on the rise due to central bankers who are experts in 'fighting fires they set alight themselves'
16. September 2021
USA: Retail sales jump sharply in August despite falling consumer confidence. Philadelphia Fed survey shows the first profound late-cycle signs 'after' Covid
A short note on why the US-UK-Australia security pact is one more step towards decoupling between China and the rest of the world. 'Containment'
Japan: The economy is not much better than the rest of the world makes it. Supply chain problems hit exports and manufacturing sentiment
Recommendation: Take short-term profit in 'short 30-year German Bund future' strategy
15. September 2021
USA: Manufacturing output data show only a slow increase in the supply side, while the Empire State survey shows strong demand
British inflation data shows signs of 'delayed price pressure'. Soaring electricity and heating prices will make the inflation picture even worse in Q4
China: Weak economic data will soon test Beijing's skills more profoundly. Evergrande 'default' will not go away. New virus outbreak in Fujian
14. September 2021
USA: Core consumer price inflation slows in August, but price pressure will stay high in the coming months
Britain: The number of unfilled job vacancies exceeding one million leaves few other options than launching monetary tightening sooner rather than later
No signs of falling inflation pressure. Electricity and gas prices are skyrocketing. ECB and Federal Reserve could be forced to respond faster at the same time as China's debt crisis gets worse
13. September 2021
Turkey: The economy faces headwinds as stimulus measures are running out of steam
SPD's Olaf Scholz is not the solution. Merkel departure will release conflicting political forces in Germany and the rest of Europe. WPI inflation at the highest level since 1974
10. September 2021
USA: Producer price inflation hits a new record high even though wage inflation has just started
China: Beijing's policy U-turn is not yet visible in monetary statistics. The latest on President Xi's 'reform' process
Spain: The economic recovery remains strong despite weaker-than-expected industrial output data in July. Madrid turns left as the rest of Europe
9. September 2021
China: Factory gates inflation gains momentum, but a 'radical' political shift poses a much larger risk
The mismatch between the supply and the demand sides worsens in the labour market. Sell the US stock market
8. September 2021
The yield curve and 'tapering'
7. September 2021
Germany: ZEW survey shows the economy hitting a huge roadblock as the ECB scores own goal
China: August trade report makes a positive surprise, but the economy faces headwinds. Internal power struggle in Beijing?
6. September 2021
Germany: 'Big items' boost industrial orders in July. Bottlenecks create roadblocks for economic activity
China: The Second Cultural Revolution?
USA and Europe: The worst central banks since Arthur Burns in the 1970s create stagflation
1. September 2021
Vacation: There will be no updates from August 23 to September 3, 2021
24. August 2021
Podcast interview with Camilla Noerup Soerensen: China enters the graveyard of empires, Afghanistan. What are the ramifications?
20. August 2021
Germany: Factory inflation, sponsored by irresponsible Western central banks and fiscal policymakers, is skyrocketing at the fastest annual rate since the 1970s
19. August 2021
USA: Philadelphia Fed survey shows more signs of stagflation. The Delta variant creating more supply chain havoc in China will maintain high inflation pressure in the US
Japan: Business sentiment jumps across the board despite soaring Covid cases and global supply chain challenges
A short note on the consequences of Beijing becoming 'socialist', this time, with 'real socialist characteristics'
USA: Tapering combined with a recovery in inflation and real growth rapidly reduces excess liquidity to the disadvantage of asset prices
18. August 2021
The global bottlenecks will not go away because the Delta variant will aggravate the mismatch between the supply and demand sides. The US Federal Reserve will soon have to make a difference
17. August 2021
USA: The July retail sales report disappoints, but it is difficult to say whether this is caused by higher inflation, Covid or a shortage of supply
Britain: The labour market recovers strongly. The share of companies 'planning to hire' and 'unfilled vacancies' jump to the highest level on record
16. August 2021
China: The economy is losing momentum. Beijing pursues a strategy of 'targeted tightening and universal easing'
USA: Consumer sentiment takes a beating due to soaring Covid cases and self-inflicted headwinds in the form of rising inflation
13. August 2021
Germany: The next Bundestag could turn out to be the most unruly parliament since the Weimar Republic
12. August 2021
USA: 'Transitory' producer price inflation continues gaining momentum for longer, as the Federal Reserve considers how to make a U-turn without losing face
Euro-zone: Man-made bottlenecks in the global supply chain puts a lid on manufacturing output
11. August 2021
US inflation report provides relief, but too much demand hunting too few goods will keep inflation at an elevated level beyond 'transitory'
A divorce between monetary and fiscal policymakers seems inevitable. Soon, central banks are forced to call a spade a spade
Sell the German 30-year government bond future
10. August 2021
USA: Small business survey shows tentative signs of stagflation. The Federal Reserve still faces a tiny window of opportunity, but it is closing rapidly
Germany: ZEW economic sentiment index falls sharply in August, as the side-effects of aggressive monetary and fiscal easing hit the shores
Australia: Business sentiment plunges, as Australia gives lessons to Europe and US on what to expect if we do not get it right over the coming winter
USA: JOLTS report underscores dissent at the Federal Reserve. The missing link between aggressive stimulus measures and 'climate change.'
9. August 2021
Podcast interview with Casper Wichmann, China expert: Who is next in Beijing's crackdown on the corporate sector?
China: Benign inflation 'sponsored' by falling pork prices opens a window of opportunity for more monetary easing - but this is a delicate balancing act due to soaring factory gates inflation
6. August 2021
USA: A strong labour market report will be followed by an even stronger report in August and September adding upward pressure on wages
Germany: The economy shows classic late-cycle symptoms although the recovery has just started. Do not expect help from container shipping lines in 2021
5. August 2021
France: There are absolutely no signs of improvement in public sector finances despite a recovering economy
Germany: Industrial orders inflated by 'big items'. The problem is not the demand side but bottlenecks in the global supply chain
Brazil raises policy rates by 100 basis points. More in the pipeline as the independent central bank, BCB, provides lessons to 'old' central banks in the developed world
4. August 2021
USA: Service sentiment jumps to a new all-time high, while inflation pressure increases to the highest since 2005
Euro-zone: Retail sales report shows strong consumer spending in June, but households will soon see headwinds in Q3 from broad-based inflation pressure
3. August 2021
Euro-zone: Producer price inflation hits the highest level since the early 1990s. No signs of 'transitory' as the supply side has yet to respond to stronger 'transitory demand'
Turkey is 'cornered' with no emergency exits
2. August 2021
USA: The manufacturing ISM index fell in July, as companies are 'short of everything'. The 'solution' is apparently more stimulus measures
Sweden: PMI survey shows inflation pressure increasing to a new all-time high as central banks underestimate the time lag of monetary decisions. Container rates 'out of China' jump by 11% in July
China: Beijing facing several out-of-control headwinds makes a corporate-hostile policy misplaced - or the 'wrong timing'
30. July 2021
US personal income and consumption report shows elevated inflation pressure but not enough to worry the Federal Reserve, at least not yet
Euro-zone Q2 growth propelled higher by countries in the periphery despite a slow rebound in tourism
France: The economy shows only a muted rebound in Q2 after flat growth in Q1. Real purchasing power erosion poses a bigger short-term threat than the delta-variants
29. July 2021
USA: Q2 GDP report disappoints, not least due to a record-high GDP deflator. More 'transitory' inflation is in the pipeline. Is stagflation around the corner?
EU Commission survey: Soaring household inflation expectations hit the highest level since 2012, as ECB policy turns 'demand destructive'
France: Factory-gate inflation continues gaining momentum sponsored by a European Central Bank increasingly out of touch with the reality on the ground
28. July 2021
France: The 'net effect' of aggressive global stimulus measures are slowly creating headwinds to households - Insee
Today, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will, once again, be forced to admit that he was wrong. Richmond Fed's 'prices paid' index skyrockets in July
27. July 2021
USA: The Conference Board consumer survey shows significant inflation pressure but not necessarily 'demand destructive' - at least not yet
USA: The corporate spending recovery is still intact, but it has, so far, been a disappointment considering excessively loose monetary policy
South Korea: Strong Q2 growth makes leeway for the Bank of Korea to raise policy rates in August
China's corporate sector sees plenty of headwinds. Now, the education sector feels the heat from Beijing. Even Stephen Roach warns about the direction of Beijing
26. July 2021
USA: New home sales report shows more signs that the Federal Reserve is slowly turning into the main sponsor of headwinds to the economy
Germany: IFO survey underscores the ECB's policy mistake by focusing on the demand side. Bottlenecks in the supply chain are the main problem, according to IFO
23. July 2021
Soon, the margin squeeze in the manufacturing sector could also hit the service sector sponsored by irresponsible central banks out of touch with economic reality
22. July 2021
USA: Existing home prices continued to increase rapidly in June, but house price inflation has peaked
France: Business sentiment continues to improve, as demand is no longer a problem. 'Supply difficulties' skyrocket to the highest since 2000
Perversely, at the same time ECB's Lagarde considers new stimulus measures, the Dutch unemployment rate approaches an all-time low and home prices an all-time high
21. July 2021
Britain is walking a delicate balancing act as higher inflation reduces the room for maneuvring
The 'Australian case' is a warning to Europe and the United States to prepare for 'winter is coming'
20. July 2021
Taiwan and South Korea continue to benefit from a 'cutting corners policy' in the United States and Europe
Germany: Producer price inflation hits the highest level since January 1982. Core inflation also hits a new record high
Covid-update: Is 'winter coming' before 'summer has even started?'
19. July 2021
USA: Aggressive fiscal and monetary stimulus measures turn counterproductive. Households' inflation expectations jump, according to UoM consumer sentiment survey
16. July 2021
USA: Retail sales jump in June, as households see plenty of tailwinds, but inflation poses a problem unless wages are on the rise
The fundamental support for the US dollar is eroding rapidly
15. July 2021
USA: The regional Philadelphia Fed survey continues to show solid growth and inflation at an elevated level
China's economy shows robust growth in Q2, but officials warn about dark clouds on the horizon
14. July 2021
USA: The Federal Reserve ignoring soaring inflation as 'transitory' could be in for a significant surprise because the supply side stays put
Britain: Inflation continuing upward trend in June creates the foundation for monetary U-turn later in 2021
13. July 2021
USA: Inflation jumps beyond market expectations in June, as 'transitory' turns into 'transitory for longer'. Core inflation hits the highest level since 1991
USA: NFIB survey shows bottlenecks and 'inflation everywhere', but no signs of higher corporate spending
China: The June trade report shows a buoyant economy, but other factors may also be at play when it comes to strong imports
12. July 2021
Japan: A sharp increase in machinery orders shows the rebound is on track shortly before the general election - but this is not a strong recovery
China's RRR cut is more than just a 'technical move'. Beijing fears an abrupt growth slowdown. China in easing mode changes the situation
9. July 2021
Britain: Multiple bottlenecks and labour shortage rather than new Covid variants put a lid on growth
China: A benign inflation picture opens a welcome window of opportunity for monetary policymakers in Beijing at the right time
8. July 2021
Japan's Economy Watcher Survey shows a strong rebound in service sentiment, but the long-term outlook is weak. Japan's is a must-read case study for EU and US policymakers
Podcast interview with China expert Joergen Delman: The Party that was not meant to be
7. July 2021
Recommendation: Taking 'significantly reduced' profit on short US 30-year bond future
Germany: Industrial output also disappoints in May, as bottlenecks put a drag on growth. That said, the growth outlook remains robust
6. July 2021
USA: ISM service survey disappoints, but inflation pressure stays at the highest level since 2005
Spain: The economic rebound is on track, but fiscal support measures from Brussels hit the shores far too late
Germany: Notoriously volatile industrial orders drop in May, but the 2021 outlook remains strong
5. July 2021
Turkey: Consumer prices rose sharply in June. PPI inflation jumps to 43% year-on-year
China: Caixin service PMI index drops to the lowest level since April 2020. Didi becomes the latest target of Beijing
2. July 2021
US labour market report: There are plenty of job offers, but the labour force bounces back far too slowly
Euro-zone: Producer prices jump at the fastest pace since 1997. Inflation pressure will stay for longer as long as suppliers believe in the 'transitory narrative'
The Bank of Korea will soon start the global 'monetary reversal game' - although the process has already started in the United States
1. July 2021
USA: Manufacturing sentiment stays at an elevated level, but inflation pressure continues making a new record high
Japan: The Bank of Japan's Tankan survey shows improvement but at a much slower pace than in the United States and Europe
30. June 2021
USA: A significant mismatch between the supply and the demand sides in the labour market puts a lid on actual employment growth, according to the ADP Employment report
China: Port congestion, the resurgence of Covid19 in Guangdong and Beijing's 'intervention' in the commodity market put a drag on PMI surveys
29. June 2021
Germany: Benign consumer price inflation in June, but households' inflation expectations jump to the highest since 2011
EU survey: Euro-zone economic sentiment index hits the highest in 21 years. Industrial and consumer inflation expectations jump
Sweden: Economic sentiment jumps to a new record high - and the same applies to inflation pressure
France: Consumer confidence jumps to the highest since March 2020. Employment expectations skyrocket
25. June 2021
USA: PCE inflation moves higher as inflation pressure is broadening
Germany: Households turning significantly more upbeat about the economy will create very strong growth in Q3
24. June 2021
The inflation storyboard: The Federal Reserve decides the outcome of 'part one' and 'part two'
Germany: IFO survey shows economic acceleration. Inflation pressure is on the rise
France: The composite business sentiment index jumps to the highest since 2007. Inflation pressure hits the highest since 1990
23. June 2021
USA: Affordability puts a lid on new home sales in May adding upward pressure on the number of unsold homes
Podcast interview: What have central banks done to the business cycle? An interview with Professor Torben M Andersen, former chairman of the Danish government's advisory Covid19 group
22. June 2021
USA: Existing home sales remain buoyant and prices are skyrocketing
Britain: The CBI industrial order index increases to the highest since 1988 while inflation expectations jump to the highest in the last 40 years
Euro-zone: Soaring Dutch consumer confidence is more evidence of a strong Euro-zone rebound in the second half of 2021
21. June 2021
USA: A 'bullish flattening' of the yield curve is not part of the storyboard - at least not yet
Germany and France: Political 'status quo' is not leading to long-overdue changes
18. June 2021
Germany: Core producer price inflation hits a new record high. The recovery in the labour market could trigger a monetary U-turn faster than expected by investors
USA: Philadelphia Fed survey shows short- and long-term inflation pressure at the highest since 1989. Monetary policy will prove 'transitory' but not inflation
16. June 2021
THERE WILL BE NO UPDATES ON JUNE 17
USA: The housing market is amidst an unfamiliar situation, as the Federal Reserve's weird monetary policy poses the biggest risk to the recovery
China: Anecdotal and statistical evidence shows a robust domestic economy benefiting from a China-hostile world and 'too good to be true' overseas stimulus measures
Britain: Inflation pressure gains momentum in May even though the 'real recovery' has not even started
15. June 2021
USA: Soon, producer prices staying at an elevated level will feed into consumer prices
A short note on container freight rates 'out of China'
Britain: A strong economic rebound combined with labour shortages boosts wages. The 'delta variant' could make 'some noise'
14. June 2021
Brazil is headed towards significantly higher policy rates as inflation hits the highest level since 2016
11. June 2021
USA: Consumer confidence improves in June. Households see plenty of tailwinds in 2021
A short follow-up on US inflation and the bond market
10. June 2021
USA: Inflation jumps sharply in May as 'transitory price pressure' will not go away
British house price inflation hitting the highest since 1988 and evidence of more than just 'transitory inflation' trigger a significant warning from the Bank of England
9. June 2021
China: Producer price inflation jumps at the fastest rate since 2008. The 'base effect' from soaring pork prices in 2020 will keep CPI inflation low for a few more months
8. June 2021
USA: The flipside of aggressive fiscal and monetary easing hits the shore. 'JOLTS job openings' skyrocket to a new all-time high
USA: NFIB small business survey shows increasing and broad-based price and wage inflation
Germany: ZEW shows investor sentiment has peaked, but tailwinds from central banks remain strong, at least for the time being
7. June 2021
Germany: Industrial orders show 'normalisation' as exporters benefit from other countries' stimulus measures
China: Local virus outbreaks in Guangdong and a shortage of containers out of China put a drag on exports
4. June 2021
USA: The labour market report disappoints again as plenty of job offers are not filled by enough applicants, but wage inflation is on the rise
A short update of Outlook 2021 - and the financial market implications
3. June 2021
USA: ISM service index increases to a new all-time high. Inflation pressure jumps to the highest level since 2005 indicating consumer price inflation in the range of 5% to 6%
USA: ADP Employment Report shows a strong bounce in the labour market adding more pressure on the Federal Reserve to reverse policy
Watch out for the Riksbank and the Federal Reserve: Sweden's leading price indicators point towards inflation close to 5%. The Federal Reserve has made the first step towards tightening
Turkey: A panicking President Erdogan retakes charge of monetary policy to the disadvantage of the economy
2. June 2021
Euro-zone: Inflation at the factory gates jumps at the fastest rate since 2008. There is more in the pipeline, as policymakers still make tailwinds
1. June 2021
USA: A highly ambiguous manufacturing ISM survey shows strength but also 'supply chain related' weakness. Federal Reserve QE reduction will come sooner rather than later
Switzerland: The best leading indicators are harbingers of growth in the range of 5% to 8% in 2021. Price pressure jumps to the highest level since January 1995
British house prices skyrocket to a new all-time high, as households want more space. Central banks warning about house prices sound hollow
31. May 2021
Germany: Consumer price report surprises to the upside. The risk of second-round inflation is still low, but no signs of softening in imported inflation
Japan: Industrial output bounces back, but the 'recovery' will disappoint. Consumer confidence declines
China: The official PMI survey shows robust growth, but inflation pressure at the highest level since 2010 bodes ill for growth in 2022 and beyond
28. May 2021
USA: Personal income-consumption report shows a significant increase in the PCE price index adding more pressure on the Federal Reserve to change monetary policy
Euro-zone survey: Business and consumer sentiment jumps in May. Inflation pressure at the factory gates hits the highest since 1985
Federal Reserve dissent intensifies: 'Tapering' is more often mentioned by Fed officials. Do not even mention 'quantitative tightening'
27. May 2021
USA: Q1 GDP report revision shows inflation pressure at the highest level since Q1, 2007, even though the 'recovery party' has not started yet
A follow-up note on 'transitory': The Federal Reserve sacrificing the credibility of fiat money will have huge consequences if the 'transitory call' proves wrong
Sweden: Business sentiment and price pressure jump to the highest ever recorded: When do central banks say what everyone already knows?
26. May 2021
The financial market needs more evidence of 'transitory'. South Korean business survey does not provide it
France: The composite Insee business sentiment index skyrockets to the highest since April 2018. Inflation pressure jumps to the highest level since 2011
25. May 2021
USA: Soaring cost pressure is the main drag on the housing market, according to today's 'new home sales report'. The Conference Board consumer survey shows increasing inflation pressure and a very tight labour market
Germany: A sharp improvement in the IFO service sentiment index is a harbinger of very strong growth in Q2 and Q3
21. May 2021
Euro-zone: The leading consumer confidence index jumps to the highest level since October 2018
USA: Existing home sales report shows home prices increasing at the fastest annual rate since the 1960s. The Federal Reserve is far behind the curve
Britain: Retail sales jump in April. Skyrocketing consumer confidence shows more in the pipeline. Europe headed for a positive rebound surprise will change the monetary outlook
20. May 2021
USA: The Philadelphia Fed headline index plunges, as expected, but inflation pressure jumps to a new record high
The Federal Reserve plays with fire: Talking about tapering amidst the risk of an 'automatic liquidity squeeze' should gain attention among investors
Japan: Exports bounce back, but there are no signs of self-propelled recovery. Plenty of headwinds, not least as the US Federal Reserve talks about 'tapering'
19. May 2021
Britain: The rise in consumer prices has started. Central banks decide for how long
18. May 2021
US housing report shows weakness as soaring commodity prices delay 'new starts'
The Euro-zone economy contracting in Q1 will bounce back in Q2, but infrastructure spending needed in H2 to make the economic recovery self-propelled
Japan: A failed Covid19 strategy hits the economy in Q1. Only 3.5% of the population has received the first vaccination shot
17. May 2021
The headline index in the US Empire State survey barely changed in May, but price pressure jumped to a new all-time high
China faces the same bottlenecks as the rest of the world, but the leading activity indicators remain strong
Podcast interview with Ulrik Bie, Berlingske's economic editor and former Chief Economist at IIF and Nykredit: Are monetary policymakers part of the problem rather than the solution?
13. May 2021
There will be no updates on May 13 and 14 due to public holidays in Denmark
Podcast interview with Joerg Wuttke, President of the EU Chamber of Commerce China: What comes next for European companies in China?
12. May 2021
USA: After today's inflation report, the Federal Reserve could suddenly look like 'Comical Ali', according to investors
China: Slow monetary aggregates should give rise to concern in Beijing
USA: JOLTS survey shows a huge mismatch between job offers and applicants. President Biden asks companies to raise wages
Britain: The economy accelerated sharply in March, but the vaccination process coming to a standstill poses a threat to a country with little ammo left
11. May 2021
USA: NFIB small business survey shows an upbeat short-term growth outlook but significant inflation pressure - and visible signs of skilled workers shortage
Germany: ZEW survey shows highly upbeat investors and a recovery that has finally started. Are investors underestimating the risk of inflation?
China: Factory gate inflation jumps as imported price pressure is on the rise. The recovery is slowly turning into headwinds for the global stock market
10. May 2021
Soaring commodity prices making significant inroads into households' 'real' consumption basket pose a threat to growth in 2022
Australia: The leading NAB business sentiment index jumps to a new all-time high. The AUD will benefit from soaring commodity prices, but 2022 could turn out quite differently
7. May 2021
USA: April labour market report disappoints big time. There are plenty of job offers but only a few workers are employed
Germany: The rebound has started. The Greens' Annalena Baerbock fascinates President Biden, but the rise of the Green Party also raises unanswered questions
China: The April trade report shows broad-based economic strength - but also increasing inflation pressure
6. May 2021
US stock market return chart: 1900-2021
Spain's regional Madrid election is a warning to incumbent governments in Europe that there comes a time after Covid19
Germany: Industrial orders jump in March, as the rebound accelerates. Most political parties turning 'green' leaves room for the liberal party, FDP
5. May 2021
USA: ISM service sentiment index fails to make a new record high in April, but inflation pressure continues higher
Podcast interview with China expert Joergen Delman: The situation for European companies in China has turned significantly more complicated after the EU-China investment deal has been put on hold by Brussels
Euro-zone: Price pressure at the factory gates is on the rise. Second-round inflation remains benign, so far, but imported inflation keeps coming
Sweden: Price pressure in the service sector increases to a new all-time high
4. May 2021
US trade report: Imports skyrocket to the highest since November 2018 as 'too much demand hunts too little supply. The US is headed for the 1980s 'twin deficit', which did not end well
A blinkered Federal Reserve could turn the United States into a 'late-cycle economy' in June or July. The 'gap' in the labour market is closing rapidly
3. May 2021
USA: The ISM manufacturing index declines from an all-time high, as inflation pressure continues higher
The Swiss and the Swedish PMI headline indexes propel to a new record high - the same applies to inflation pressure
China: PMI surveys continue to show robust growth. Beijing tries to keep its powder dry by setting sails to benefit from tailwinds created by Washington
