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12. July 2021
Japan: A sharp increase in machinery orders shows the rebound is on track shortly before the general election - but this is not a strong recovery
China's RRR cut is more than just a 'technical move'. Beijing fears an abrupt growth slowdown. China in easing mode changes the situation
9. July 2021
Britain: Multiple bottlenecks and labour shortage rather than new Covid variants put a lid on growth
China: A benign inflation picture opens a welcome window of opportunity for monetary policymakers in Beijing at the right time
8. July 2021
Japan's Economy Watcher Survey shows a strong rebound in service sentiment, but the long-term outlook is weak. Japan's is a must-read case study for EU and US policymakers
Podcast interview with China expert Joergen Delman: The Party that was not meant to be
7. July 2021
Recommendation: Taking 'significantly reduced' profit on short US 30-year bond future
Germany: Industrial output also disappoints in May, as bottlenecks put a drag on growth. That said, the growth outlook remains robust
6. July 2021
USA: ISM service survey disappoints, but inflation pressure stays at the highest level since 2005
Spain: The economic rebound is on track, but fiscal support measures from Brussels hit the shores far too late
Germany: Notoriously volatile industrial orders drop in May, but the 2021 outlook remains strong
5. July 2021
Turkey: Consumer prices rose sharply in June. PPI inflation jumps to 43% year-on-year
China: Caixin service PMI index drops to the lowest level since April 2020. Didi becomes the latest target of Beijing
2. July 2021
US labour market report: There are plenty of job offers, but the labour force bounces back far too slowly
Euro-zone: Producer prices jump at the fastest pace since 1997. Inflation pressure will stay for longer as long as suppliers believe in the 'transitory narrative'
The Bank of Korea will soon start the global 'monetary reversal game' - although the process has already started in the United States
1. July 2021
USA: Manufacturing sentiment stays at an elevated level, but inflation pressure continues making a new record high
Japan: The Bank of Japan's Tankan survey shows improvement but at a much slower pace than in the United States and Europe
30. June 2021
USA: A significant mismatch between the supply and the demand sides in the labour market puts a lid on actual employment growth, according to the ADP Employment report
China: Port congestion, the resurgence of Covid19 in Guangdong and Beijing's 'intervention' in the commodity market put a drag on PMI surveys
29. June 2021
Germany: Benign consumer price inflation in June, but households' inflation expectations jump to the highest since 2011
EU survey: Euro-zone economic sentiment index hits the highest in 21 years. Industrial and consumer inflation expectations jump
Sweden: Economic sentiment jumps to a new record high - and the same applies to inflation pressure
France: Consumer confidence jumps to the highest since March 2020. Employment expectations skyrocket
25. June 2021
USA: PCE inflation moves higher as inflation pressure is broadening
Germany: Households turning significantly more upbeat about the economy will create very strong growth in Q3
24. June 2021
The inflation storyboard: The Federal Reserve decides the outcome of 'part one' and 'part two'
Germany: IFO survey shows economic acceleration. Inflation pressure is on the rise
France: The composite business sentiment index jumps to the highest since 2007. Inflation pressure hits the highest since 1990
23. June 2021
USA: Affordability puts a lid on new home sales in May adding upward pressure on the number of unsold homes
Podcast interview: What have central banks done to the business cycle? An interview with Professor Torben M Andersen, former chairman of the Danish government's advisory Covid19 group
22. June 2021
USA: Existing home sales remain buoyant and prices are skyrocketing
Britain: The CBI industrial order index increases to the highest since 1988 while inflation expectations jump to the highest in the last 40 years
Euro-zone: Soaring Dutch consumer confidence is more evidence of a strong Euro-zone rebound in the second half of 2021
21. June 2021
USA: A 'bullish flattening' of the yield curve is not part of the storyboard - at least not yet
Germany and France: Political 'status quo' is not leading to long-overdue changes
18. June 2021
Germany: Core producer price inflation hits a new record high. The recovery in the labour market could trigger a monetary U-turn faster than expected by investors
USA: Philadelphia Fed survey shows short- and long-term inflation pressure at the highest since 1989. Monetary policy will prove 'transitory' but not inflation
16. June 2021
USA: The housing market is amidst an unfamiliar situation, as the Federal Reserve's weird monetary policy poses the biggest risk to the recovery
China: Anecdotal and statistical evidence shows a robust domestic economy benefiting from a China-hostile world and 'too good to be true' overseas stimulus measures
Britain: Inflation pressure gains momentum in May even though the 'real recovery' has not even started
15. June 2021
USA: Soon, producer prices staying at an elevated level will feed into consumer prices
A short note on container freight rates 'out of China'
Britain: A strong economic rebound combined with labour shortages boosts wages. The 'delta variant' could make 'some noise'
14. June 2021
Brazil is headed towards significantly higher policy rates as inflation hits the highest level since 2016 
11. June 2021
USA: Consumer confidence improves in June. Households see plenty of tailwinds in 2021
A short follow-up on US inflation and the bond market
10. June 2021
USA: Inflation jumps sharply in May as 'transitory price pressure' will not go away
British house price inflation hitting the highest since 1988 and evidence of more than just 'transitory inflation' trigger a significant warning from the Bank of England
9. June 2021
China: Producer price inflation jumps at the fastest rate since 2008. The 'base effect' from soaring pork prices in 2020 will keep CPI inflation low for a few more months 
8. June 2021
USA: The flipside of aggressive fiscal and monetary easing hits the shore. 'JOLTS job openings' skyrocket to a new all-time high
USA: NFIB small business survey shows increasing and broad-based price and wage inflation
Germany: ZEW shows investor sentiment has peaked, but tailwinds from central banks remain strong, at  least for the time being 
7. June 2021
Germany: Industrial orders show 'normalisation' as exporters benefit from other countries' stimulus measures
China: Local virus outbreaks in Guangdong and a shortage of containers out of China put a drag on exports
4. June 2021
USA: The labour market report disappoints again as plenty of job offers are not filled by enough applicants, but wage inflation is on the rise
A short update of Outlook 2021 - and the financial market implications
3. June 2021
USA: ISM service index increases to a new all-time high. Inflation pressure jumps to the highest level since 2005 indicating consumer price inflation in the range of 5% to 6%
USA: ADP Employment Report shows a strong bounce in the labour market adding more pressure on the Federal Reserve to reverse policy
Watch out for the Riksbank and the Federal Reserve: Sweden's leading price indicators point towards inflation close to 5%. The Federal Reserve has made the first step towards tightening
Turkey: A panicking President Erdogan retakes charge of monetary policy to the disadvantage of the economy
2. June 2021
Euro-zone: Inflation at the factory gates jumps at the fastest rate since 2008. There is more in the pipeline, as policymakers still make tailwinds
1. June 2021
USA: A highly ambiguous manufacturing ISM survey shows strength but also 'supply chain related' weakness. Federal Reserve QE reduction will come sooner rather than later
Switzerland: The best leading indicators are harbingers of growth in the range of 5% to 8% in 2021. Price pressure jumps to the highest level since January 1995
British house prices skyrocket to a new all-time high, as households want more space. Central banks warning about house prices sound hollow
31. May 2021
Germany: Consumer price report surprises to the upside. The risk of second-round inflation is still low, but no signs of softening in imported inflation
Japan: Industrial output bounces back, but the 'recovery' will disappoint. Consumer confidence declines
China: The official PMI survey shows robust growth, but inflation pressure at the highest level since 2010 bodes ill for growth in 2022 and beyond
28. May 2021
USA: Personal income-consumption report shows a significant increase in the PCE price index adding more pressure on the Federal Reserve to change monetary policy
Euro-zone survey: Business and consumer sentiment jumps in May. Inflation pressure at the factory gates hits the highest since 1985
Federal Reserve dissent intensifies: 'Tapering' is more often mentioned by Fed officials. Do not even mention 'quantitative tightening'
27. May 2021
USA: Q1 GDP report revision shows inflation pressure at the highest level since Q1, 2007, even though the 'recovery party' has not started yet
A follow-up note on 'transitory': The Federal Reserve sacrificing the credibility of fiat money will have huge consequences if the 'transitory call' proves wrong 
Sweden: Business sentiment and price pressure jump to the highest ever recorded: When do central banks say what everyone already knows?
26. May 2021
The financial market needs more evidence of 'transitory'. South Korean business survey does not provide it
France: The composite Insee business sentiment index skyrockets to the highest since April 2018. Inflation pressure jumps to the highest level since 2011
25. May 2021
USA: Soaring cost pressure is the main drag on the housing market, according to today's 'new home sales report'. The Conference Board consumer survey shows increasing inflation pressure and a very tight labour market
Germany: A sharp improvement in the IFO service sentiment index is a harbinger of very strong growth in Q2 and Q3
21. May 2021
Euro-zone: The leading consumer confidence index jumps to the highest level since October 2018
USA: Existing home sales report shows home prices increasing at the fastest annual rate since the 1960s. The Federal Reserve is far behind the curve
Britain: Retail sales jump in April. Skyrocketing consumer confidence shows more in the pipeline. Europe headed for a positive rebound surprise will change the monetary outlook
20. May 2021
USA: The Philadelphia Fed headline index plunges, as expected, but inflation pressure jumps to a new record high
The Federal Reserve plays with fire: Talking about tapering amidst the risk of an 'automatic liquidity squeeze' should gain attention among investors
Japan: Exports bounce back, but there are no signs of self-propelled recovery. Plenty of headwinds, not least as the US Federal Reserve talks about 'tapering'
19. May 2021
Britain: The rise in consumer prices has started. Central banks decide for how long
18. May 2021
US housing report shows weakness as soaring commodity prices delay 'new starts'
The Euro-zone economy contracting in Q1 will bounce back in Q2, but infrastructure spending needed in H2 to make the economic recovery self-propelled
Japan: A failed Covid19 strategy hits the economy in Q1. Only 3.5% of the population has received the first vaccination shot
17. May 2021
The headline index in the US Empire State survey barely changed in May, but price pressure jumped to a new all-time high
China faces the same bottlenecks as the rest of the world, but the leading activity indicators remain strong
Podcast interview with Ulrik Bie, Berlingske's economic editor and former Chief Economist at IIF and Nykredit: Are monetary policymakers part of the problem rather than the solution?
13. May 2021
There will be no updates on May 13 and 14 due to public holidays in Denmark
Podcast interview with Joerg Wuttke, President of the EU Chamber of Commerce China: What comes next for European companies in China?
12. May 2021
USA: After today's inflation report, the Federal Reserve could suddenly look like 'Comical Ali', according to investors
China: Slow monetary aggregates should give rise to concern in Beijing
USA: JOLTS survey shows a huge mismatch between job offers and applicants. President Biden asks companies to raise wages
Britain: The economy accelerated sharply in March, but the vaccination process coming to a standstill poses a threat to a country with little ammo left
11. May 2021
USA: NFIB small business survey shows an upbeat short-term growth outlook but significant inflation pressure - and visible signs of skilled workers shortage
Germany: ZEW survey shows highly upbeat investors and a recovery that has finally started. Are investors underestimating the risk of inflation?
China: Factory gate inflation jumps as imported price pressure is on the rise. The recovery is slowly turning into headwinds for the global stock market
10. May 2021
Soaring commodity prices making significant inroads into households' 'real' consumption basket pose a threat to growth in 2022
Australia: The leading NAB business sentiment index jumps to a new all-time high. The AUD will benefit from soaring commodity prices, but 2022 could turn out quite differently
7. May 2021
USA: April labour market report disappoints big time. There are plenty of job offers but only a few workers are employed
Germany: The rebound has started. The Greens' Annalena Baerbock fascinates President Biden, but the rise of the Green Party also raises unanswered questions
China: The April trade report shows broad-based economic strength - but also increasing inflation pressure
6. May 2021
US stock market return chart: 1900-2021
Spain's regional Madrid election is a warning to incumbent governments in Europe that there comes a time after Covid19
Germany: Industrial orders jump in March, as the rebound accelerates. Most political parties turning 'green' leaves room for the liberal party, FDP
5. May 2021
USA: ISM service sentiment index fails to make a new record high in April, but inflation pressure continues higher
Podcast interview with China expert Joergen Delman: The situation for European companies in China has turned significantly more complicated after the EU-China investment deal has been put on hold by Brussels
Euro-zone: Price pressure at the factory gates is on the rise. Second-round inflation remains benign, so far, but imported inflation keeps coming
Sweden: Price pressure in the service sector increases to a new all-time high
4. May 2021
US trade report: Imports skyrocket to the highest since November 2018 as 'too much demand hunts too little supply. The US is headed for the 1980s 'twin deficit', which did not end well
A blinkered Federal Reserve could turn the United States into a 'late-cycle economy' in June or July. The 'gap' in the labour market is closing rapidly
3. May 2021
USA: The ISM manufacturing index declines from an all-time high, as inflation pressure continues higher
The Swiss and the Swedish PMI headline indexes propel to a new record high - the same applies to inflation pressure
China: PMI surveys continue to show robust growth. Beijing tries to keep its powder dry by setting sails to benefit from tailwinds created by Washington
Video: Inflation update with audio comments
29. April 2021
There will be no updates on April 30 due to a public holiday in Denmark
USA: The underlying details in a robust Q1 GDP report show very strong domestic demand. More in the pipeline in Q2 and Q3. Monetary policy is out-of-whack
Euro-zone survey shows a steep increase in business sentiment and soaring inflation expectations
Sweden: Strong Q1 growth will be followed by much stronger economic activity in Q2 and Q3. Factory gates inflation pressure at the highest since 1994
Podcast interview with Anders Ellemann Kristensen in Beijing, General Manager, Albatros Travel China: Why is China's population declining a decade earlier than expected?
28. April 2021
France: The leading consumer survey from Insee indicates a weak economic rebound
Germany: Consumer sentiment declines, as the mishandling of the pandemic weakens the 'expected rebound'. The financial costs of the US recovery will hit Europe
27. April 2021
US consumer confidence skyrockets to the highest level since February 2020. The share of respondents seeing 'plentiful of jobs' propels higher as the labour market improves
South Korea: The economy expands in Q1, but growth will accelerate in the coming quarters by courtesy of the White House, in particular
26. April 2021
Germany: The latest national lockdown and bottlenecks put a drag on business sentiment in April, according to the IFO Institute
23. April 2021
USA: New home sales report shows absolutely no signs of a slowing economy despite increasing mortgage rates
Britain: Households seeing light at the end of the tunnel boost retail sales in March. Public sector borrowing hits a new record high
Podcast interview with Steen Jakobsen, Saxo Bank: The rise of the Green Party and the implications for the German and the European economy and financial market
22. April 2021
USA: Jobless claims are on the decline, which will accelerate in the coming months. Labour shortage appears before the full recovery
Britain: Business optimism skyrockets to the highest level since 1973. Inflation pressure gains momentum
France: Manufacturing sentiment jumps to the highest since May 2019, but service sentiment declines sharply. Macron will soon have a 'spending ally' in Berlin
20. April 2021
Britain: Labour market progress is slow, but the economy remains on a path of bouncing back sharply in Q2 and Q3. The long-term growth outlook is less clear
Germany: Producer price inflation hits the highest since 2011. Significantly more inflation in the pipeline. Annalena Baerbock as Chancellor will make fiscal prudence disappear in Germany
19. April 2021
Japan: Exporters see a strong boost from Tokyo's 'biggest threat', China
16. April 2021
USA: Consumer sentiment increases in April. Household inflation expectations jump to the highest since 2012
USA: Housing starts jump to the highest since July 2006. 'Silence' is the Federal Reserve's only tool left
Japan's highly export-oriented stock market is among the star-performers, but soft data are only harbingers of a weak economic rebound
China: The Lunar New Year 'travel ban' put a lid on Q1 growth, but Beijing will maintain a hawkish policy stance
15. April 2021
USA: Retail sales propel higher at the fastest pace ever recorded, as fiscal and monetary policymakers fuel rather than put a lid on growth
USA: The cyclical indicator in the Philadelphia Fed survey jumped to the highest since 1992, as the economy sees no headwinds from policymakers
14. April 2021
Recommendation: Take profit in 'short 30-year Bund futures' strategy and re-enter 'short 30-year US government bond future' strategy
USA: 'Temporary inflation' or real inflation? What if the Federal Reserve suddenly gets second thoughts about fully financing the White House's fiscal expansion?
Australia: Consumer sentiment index skyrockets to the highest since 2010 despite the failure of Canberra's vaccination strategy. Soaring commodity prices are the biggest tailwind to the AUD
13. April 2021
USA: Consumer price inflation jumps to the highest since 2018, although the acceleration in global growth has only just started. Lumber prices hit a new record high
Germany: ZEW survey shows investor sentiment at an elevated level. Berlin is headed towards political turbulence in the coming months and years
China trade report: Exporters continue to benefit from the rest of the world bouncing back, but material costs are propelling higher
Australia benefits strongly as Washington 'just keeps giving'. All global growth engines are gaining momentum. Chinese imports from Australia hits a new all-time high
Podcast interview with Anne Sofie Schoett from the Royal Danish Defence College: What is President Erdogan's plan for Turkey?
12. April 2021
China: Ironically, the Federal Reserve could soon force Beijing to follow an unwanted path of 'Japanification'
China-USA-Asia: Increasing tensions have turned the East and the South China Sea into a powder keg
9. April 2021
USA: Producer prices jump much faster than market expectations. More is, of course, in the pipeline, as fiscal policymakers have created chaos in the global supply chain. Intermediate goods prices jump by 10% year-on-year
France: A steep decline in manufacturing output underscores President Macron's uphill struggle to get reelected in 2022. Marine Le Pen is exposed to multiple tailwinds, but fiscal expansion could change the situation
China: Producer price inflation jumps to the highest since July 2018. An accident waiting to happen in the South China Sea poses a significant future threat to the global supply chain
8. April 2021
TECHNICAL ISSUES with REFINITIV's financial data delay today's articles from Insightview
USA: Weekly jobless claims report is in line with significant labour market improvement. The economy could turn 'late-cycle' faster than expected
Japan: Household sentiment improves only slowly. The biggest threat is a rapid deterioration of the security situation in the East and the South China Sea, as Beijing moves fast to enforce its territorial claims
Germany: Industrial orders boosted by a strong rebound in domestic and Euro-zone orders for capital goods. Export orders to propel much higher in the coming months
7. April 2021
USA February trade deficit is on the rise: 'Customers assessing inventories to be too low' herald a steep increase in imports in 2021
The latest Covid19 status: 'Winners' and 'losers' - so far
6. April 2021
Spain: February tourist arrivals are 90% lower than one year ago. Only a question of 'when' Brussels will have to initiate more aggressive fiscal stimulus measures
USA: ISM service index skyrockets to a new all-time high. Inflation headed towards the range of at 'least 4% and 5%'
China: Caixin PMI service index jumps in March, as the mainland economy gains momentum. Beijing raises tensions with Japan, USA, Australia and 'neighbours' more than one thousand kilometres from the mainland
USA: The ISM manufacturing sentiment index jumps to the highest since 1983 as fiscal stimulus measures just keep coming
30. March 2021
There will be no updates on March 31, April 1,2 and 5
Podcast interview with The Economist's Berlin bureau chief, Tom Nuttall, about Germany's domestic and foreign policy when Angela Merkel steps down. How will politics change with the Green Party as part of the next government? The relationship to China?
EU Commission survey: Euro-zone business sentiment improves significantly. Companies' inflation expectations jump to the highest since 2011
Germany: Imported inflation jumps in February. The 'reservoir' of potential inflation is underestimated as fiscal stimulus measures and accumulated household savings will maintain bottlenecks in the global supply chain. Next stop: higher service inflation?
29. March 2021
The US and EU confronting China pose a risk to the supply side at the same time as the US personal savings rate hits the highest since the 1960s. US personal income jumps at the fastest rate since 1989
A short follow-up note to the IFO survey: Export expectations skyrocket to the highest since 2011, according to details released today
26. March 2021
Germany: The IFO survey shows a sharp improvement in the expectations index across the board - Replace 'short US 30-year T-bond future' with 'short 30-year Bund future'
25. March 2021
Germany: GfK consumer survey shows improvement shortly before a new lockdown and the subsequent U-turn. The CDU sees a plunge in support to the lowest level since 2000
France: Service sentiment jumps but shortly before a new Covid19-related lockdown. Inflation pressure propels higher. Paris and President Macron will soon need more aggressive fiscal stimulus measures
24. March 2021
USA: Weak durable goods orders. The biggest obstacles to the economy are supply and capacity – and the rebound has not even started
23. March 2021
USA: New home sales plunge as soaring material costs and low supply put a drag on housing activity
Britain: Industrial optimism skyrockets in March. The same applies to inflation expectations
The conflict between China and the rest of the world. What 'we do not know' and what 'the Chinese think they know' pose a significant risk to the financial market. A game changer?
Insightview recommends taking short-term profits in the 'short US 30-year bond future' strategy
22. March 2021
USA: Buoyant house prices are a function of monetary policy in the second half of 2020. Higher bond yields will create headwinds in 2022 and beyond
Taiwanese export order statistics show the steepest increase in European demand on record. China sees a sharp increase in FDI to a new record high 
A brief note on Turkey: The 'master of value destruction' strikes again. Is Erdogan creating room to become the next 'core leader'?
19. March 2021
Turkey is forced to raise key policy rates again, as the real problem does not disappear unless he is forced to do so
China: Fiscal revenue statistics show a 'solid' economic rebound but no signs yet of a 2010-like recovery
Britain: Consumer confidence skyrockets in March, as there is more light at the end of the tunnel. Nonetheless, more stimulus measures will be needed in the second half of 2021
18. March 2021
US bond market sell-off: The upcoming bond supply and negative real yield have taken over from inflation expectations as the main driver
USA: The regional Philadelphia Fed headline index propels to a new all-time high. Inflation expectations skyrocket to a record high
Australia: The strong economic recovery raises the question of whether monetary policy is too loose
17. March 2021
USA: Housing starts and permits plunge in February due to supply shortage and soaring material costs
Japan: Reuters Tankan survey shows further improvement in manufacturing and service sentiment. More to come sponsored by the Biden-administration
16. March 2021
USA: Retail sales fell sharply in February but after a significantly up-revised January number. The second and third quarter will show strong growth
Germany: Investor sentiment improves, but inflation expectations jump close to the highest since 1999. Europe could soon be forced to follow the same fiscal strategy as the White House
15. March 2021
USA: Empire State survey shows no signs of slower inflation pressure. The price index skyrockets to the highest since May 2011. Supply rather than inflation is now the driving force behind higher bond yields
Germany turns 'greener' but the political outlook becomes gloomier, as the failure of the old parties creates a political vacuum
China: Strong economic statistics and Washington acting again as a 'global engine' keep Beijing on a hawkish path. The risk of global liquidity tightening is on the rise 
13. March 2021
By Invitation: China's annual NPC meeting in the shadows of the Communist Party's 100th anniversary
Podcast interview with three China experts about the just-ended NPC Two Sessions meeting in Beijing. China-EU investment deal at risk? Taiwan next in line with the 'reunification' plan? China backpedalling on carbon emission?
12. March 2021
USA: Producer price inflation is on the rise. Watch out for the 'mother of all liquidity tightening' caused by the rebound. The real driver for higher bond yields is 'normalisation'
Spain: The economy will recover in Q2 and Q3, but 2021 could prove to be yet another lost year, as the vaccination process is too slow to save the tourist season. Financial support from Brussels needed in the second half of 2021
Britain: The economy did better than expected in January, but trade activity with the EU plunged as Brexit creates red tape problems
11. March 2021
USA: The federal deficit hits a new record high in February on the same day that the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan Act was passed
10. March 2021
USA: Tame inflation in February. Supply chain inflation is expected to feed into consumer prices in Q2 and Q3
France: Industrial output jumps in January, but the economic rebound will be fragile. Soon, Paris will ask for more fiscal stimulus measures...from Brussels, of course
China: Inflation at the factory gates is picking up. Unnoticed message from the Two Sessions should cause concern in Taiwan after the 'Hong Kong problem' has been 'solved'
9. March 2021
USA: NFIB small business survey shows soaring inflation expectations and 'skilled labour shortage at the highest since 1975
Germany: A strong January trade report does not disguise the long-term challenges of exporters. This requires political leadership, but the political vacuum will soon grow larger
Australia: Business confidence jumps to the highest since early 2010. Soaring capacity utilisation will prompt capacity expansion in Q3
8. March 2021
US growth forecast revised up to 7.2% in 2021 as the $1.9 trillion stimulus package seems now to be a given outcome. More upside to bond yields
Germany's manufacturing sector is headed towards a sharp rebound despite weak January data, but Berlin has failed big time during the second Covid19 wave. Yield-spread widening adds downward pressure on the euro
China: The trade surplus skyrockets to a new record-high, as the US and European 'economic mitigation strategy' creates a never-ending tailwind
5. March 2021
USA: The February labour market report shows a strong increase in employment. In Q2, hiring will accelerate
Germany: Industrial orders increased in January, but more to come as exporters will benefit from 'classic' US fiscal stimulus measures
A short note on Fed Chairman Powell's 'temporary inflation speech': Get used to the 'crowding out effect'
4. March 2021
Euro-zone: Retail sales plunge in January. Accelerating headline inflation could embitter households' joy later in the recovery process
Japan: The recovery in consumer sentiment is painfully slow, but the stock market rides the fiscal stimulus wave sponsored by Washington
3. March 2021
US service ISM survey: The economic mitigation strategy hits activity, and propels inflation pressure to the highest since 2008
Australia: The economy bounced back strongly in Q4. Canberra is determined to begin withdrawing fiscal stimulus measures
Podcast interview: How can you get to visit China? Insightview has talked with a Danish businessman who was determined enough to 'climb the Chinese wall'
2. March 2021
Euro-zone inflation remains benign shortly before 'summer is coming' and the vaccination process gains momentum
Germany: A weak January retail sales report is a symbolic reflection of Berlin's poor performance during the second Covid19-wave
1. March 2021
USA: Manufacturing ISM index jumps to the highest since February 2018. Inflation pressure hits the highest since 2008
Turkey: The economy was among the star performers in 2020. The share of vaccinated people hits 8%
China: The headline indexes in the PMI surveys fell again in February. The PMI export index dropped back into the contraction zone
26. February 2021
USA: Personal income increasing by a strong 10% month-on-month in January propelled household savings to 20.5%. More ammo at the end of the tunnel
The Swedish economy was among the 'star performers' in 2020. The economy is well-positioned to benefit from a global rebound in 2021
What are the main factors behind the bond market sell-off in the last few weeks? Keep the focus on JGBs as the US yield curve steepens
25. February 2021
USA: Durable goods orders gain momentum. More in the pipeline, as long as fiscal stimulus measures do not create crowding-out
EU Commission survey: Euro-zone sentiment recovery is still painfully slow. Industrialists' inflation expectations jump in February
Germany: Consumer sentiment improves, but GfK survey shows that the vaccination process, the reopening process and politics are in disarray
24. February 2021
USA: A strong leading new home sales report shows clear evidence of an economy exposed to 'excessive' stimulus measures. More house price inflation in the pipeline despite higher bond yields
Taiwan: Skyrocketing export orders show clear signs of a broadening global growth acceleration - or more precisely, 'demand acceleration'. No evidence of softening price pressure
France: Manufacturing sentiment improves, but service sentiment drops. Inflation pressure jumps to the highest level since July 2011. More imported inflation in the pipeline
23. February 2021
USA: Consumer confidence improves - and households' inflation expectations increase
A short note on the US bond market sell-off. What comes next?
China: House prices accelerate despite curbs imposed by local authorities, as inventories of unsold homes decline
22. February 2021
Germany: Business sentiment jumps as 'summer is coming' and the vaccination process gains momentum. Inflation pressure in the US adds pressure on the European bond market
19. February 2021
USA: The housing market remains buoyant as policymakers pursue a dangerous strategy of 'let us see what happens'
Britain: The yo-yo pandemic triggers a steep decline in retail sales in January. The fiscal deficit jumps. Business and consumer sentiment increases only slowly in February
Germany: Producer prices jump in January. A much larger increase is in the pipeline in 2021. Is inflation really a problem in Europe?
18. February 2021
USA: Philadelphia Fed survey is a harbinger of steady growth, but inflation expectations skyrocket. The White House is on a path of making a significant policy mistake
Australia: Strong labour market report in January. The recovery is now so robust that Canberra considers rolling back several fiscal support schemes. What about the Aussie dollar?
VIDEO: The case for higher US bond yields - and President Biden's planned public sector projects
17. February 2021
USA: Skyrocketing retail sales and significantly higher inflation at the factory gates require high-level communication skills at the Federal Reserve in 2021
Japan: The 'recovery' continues, according to the latest Reuters Tankan survey. Biden's aggressive policy approach will keep the yen weak in the short run until inflation erodes the real value of the US dollar
16. February 2021
USA: Regional Empire State survey shows skyrocketing inflation pressure at the factory gates
Podcast interview with Flemming Konradsen, Director, School of Global Health, University of Copenhagen, on how to reopen after the lockdown without creating the foundation for the next lockdown
Germany: ZEW economic sentiment index jumps in February close to the highest level since 2004. Inflation expectations are skyrocketing
15. February 2021
Japan: The economy shows strong growth in Q4. Washington could turn into the main growth sponsor for Japanese exporters in 2021
USA: The Biden administration opting for 'whatever it takes' will have profound global consequences further down the road
Podcast interview: 'Boots on the ground'. What is the current situation in China? Steffen Schiottz-Christensen in Chengdu about China's economic recovery, vaccination and the business situation on the mainland
12. February 2021
USA: University of Michigan consumer sentiment index declined in February. Inflation expectations hit the highest since 2014
Britain: The economy closed the miserable year of 2020 down by 9.9%. The long-term outlook remains weak as London does not have the same freedom of 'fiscal irresponsibility' as in Washington
A short note on President Biden's telephone conversation with Xi Jinping
11. February 2021
USA: The federal deficit skyrocketing in January to more than 17% of GDP will not prevent the Biden-administration from doing more of the same 'fiscal experiment' in 2021
Britain: The latest lockdown puts a drag on house prices, but there appear no significant headwinds in the short run
10. February 2021
USA: Moderate inflation in January, but price pressure is building in many parts of the global supply chain
France: The manufacturing sector stumbled in December. France now pays the price of having made several mistakes since 2008
China: Lunar New Year distortion and food import add downward pressure on consumer prices. Factory prices on the rise. Asset price inflation is Beijing's biggest challenge
9. February 2021
USA: NFIB small business sentiment survey shows a steep increase in output prices - a harbinger of higher inflation
Italy: Mario Draghi will not make a difference in Rome because this time he does not have the mandate to do 'whatever it takes'. He has only one attempt
China: 'January aberration' boosts lending, but the liquidity situation is tight, as Beijing does 'whatever it takes' to prevent asset price bubbles
Australia: Business confidence stays close to the highest level since May 2018. No signs yet of aggressive spending in the mining sector will support commodity prices
8. February 2021
Spain: Industrial production contracted in 2020 at the fastest rate since 2009. Madrid needs the ECB more than ever if US bond yields are on the rise
Japan: Economy Watcher Survey continues to show falling sentiment. 'Economic mitigation countries' have no plan-B if new variants force health authorities to launch a new vaccination program - except 'mitigation'
5. February 2021
USA: The January labour market report disappoints as yet another Covid19 wave causes havoc. More fiscal support in the pipeline
USA: What do the short-term and long-term economic indicators say about the economy? The message is strong if  central banks manipulate the yield curve
Germany: Industrial orders dragged down by a significant decline in Euro-zone demand
4. February 2021
Euro-zone: Retail sales fell by only 1.2% in 2020. A big shift in consumption is in the pipeline from Q2
3. February 2021
USA: ISM service survey heralds robust growth, employment and higher inflation in Q2 and beyond
Euro-zone: January inflation exceeds market expectations - but the 'real boost' to inflation will come in Q2
Australia: Zero-tolerance Covid19  strategy, combined with aggressive fiscal stimulus measures, is a recipe of strong growth and inflation 
China: Caixin service PMI index drops to the lowest since April 2020, as clusters of coronavirus outbreaks impact consumer behaviour
Podcast interview with Jens Larsson, St. Petri Capital, about the 'GameStop short squeeze' and the broader implications
2. February 2021
Euro-zone: The economy contracts by 6.8% in 2020. A strong rebound in Q2 and Q3 will be followed by weakness in 2022
1. February 2021
USA: ISM manufacturing index drops from an elevated level, but inflation pressure jumps again to the highest level since 2011
Sweden: Inflation pressure at the factory gates jumps to the highest level since 2004, according to the leading January PMI survey
China: New Covid19 outbreaks hit service sentiment, in particular, and manufacturing sentiment. Lunar New Year travellers are  told to stay home
29. January 2021
USA: Household income continues to grow during yet another Covid19 wave. Accumulated household savings hit $1650 billion in 2020
The European Central Bank is giving and giving, but fiscal policy is the only 'efficient' tool left
France: The economy 'performed' better than expected in the last quarter of 2020, but the outlook remains grim after an expected rebound in Q2 and Q3
28. January 2021
USA: Covid19 puts a drag on growth in the last quarter of 2020 - more weakness in Q1, but the economy will recover faster than Europe
EU Commission survey: New lockdowns and Brussels' catastrophic handling of vaccine purchases hit consumer sentiment in January
South Korea: Export sentiment jumps to the highest level since 2011, according to the leading Bank of Korea business sentiment survey
27. January 2021
USA: Private corporate spending remains far below what has been forecast by most forward-looking indicators
France: Consumer confidence declines as Paris considers to impose the third lockdown. Europe's political leaders will soon be tested as people's nerves are on edge
Germany: Consumer sentiment collapses as Berlin considers extending the lockdown
China: Industrial profits soar as Beijing's successful handling of the pandemic creates problems for the central bank
26. January 2021
USA: The Conference Board consumer survey indicates short-term pain and tentative signs of long-term gains, as the share of vaccinated is close to 6%
Brazil: 'My country is broke,' says President Bolsonaro, having bought voters during the pandemic. Bolsonaro's approval rating plunges
Britain: November unemployment rate hit the highest level since July 2016. Retailer sentiment collapses in January to a level not seen since April 2020
EU: The 'failed' vaccination process could turn into dangerous political headwinds fuelling EU-sceptics unless Brussels pulls itself together
South Korea: Strong Q4 growth report. 'Thank you for the support, USA and EU'
25. January 2021
Germany: IFO survey disappoints due to a broad-based decline in future expectations. Manufacturing current conditions index remains upbeat
22. January 2021
USA: The housing market continued to stay upbeat in December despite soaring prices, but the bond market will create headwinds in from Q2
The video version of The Outlook 2021 is now available
Britain: Several tsunamis have hit the shore. Consumer and business sentiment drops, and the budget deficit soars
21. January 2021
USA: A buoyant regional Philadelphia Fed survey is only the tip of the iceberg in an over-stimulated economy
France: Insee survey shows broad-based improvement in sentiment, but the 'recovery' will be bumpy
Japan: The export sector improves but is lagging Taiwan and South Korea
20. January 2021
China-EU investment deal
Taiwan: Export orders skyrocket at the fastest rate since April 2010 by courtesy of the 'economic mitigation countries'. More to come, according to the Economy Ministry
Germany: Inflation at the factory gates surprises to the upside as higher prices on intermediate goods and raw materials hit the shore
19. January 2021
Germany: ZEW survey looks through 'temporary' Covid19 problems. Inflation expectations skyrocketed in January
Podcast interview with Joergen Bager, Senior Director of Market Operations at LEGO Group in China, about B2C and the Chinese consumer
18. January 2021
Japan Reuters Tankan survey: Service sentiment takes a beating while manufacturing confidence jumps in January
China: The recovery continued in Q4, but headwinds from a new Covid19 wave could hit growth in Q1, as households react immediately to the newsflow
Germany: The CDU opting for status quo does not eliminate the risk of political rivalry when Angela Merkel steps down
15. January 2021
USA: Manufacturing output continues bouncing back. Capital spending plans are on the rise. Empire State survey is a harbinger of higher inflation
USA: Retail sales decline in December as the pandemic continues to put a lid on growth
China: House price inflation moderates in December as tightening measures put a drag on house prices
14. January 2021
China: The 'economic mitigation countries' supported Chinese exporters in December. More to come in Q2 assuming there are no surprises from new Covid19 variants
Is inflation on the rise? Yes, by courtesy of policymakers who, once again, kicked the can down the road
13. January 2021
Italy: The manufacturing rebound slows at the same time as politics in Rome is back to 'normal' - political turmoil
The CDU-leader contest could turn into the most decisive moment in European politics in 2021 if Friedrich Merz is elected the next party leader
12. January 2021
USA: Small business sentiment falls sharply, as a new Covid19 wave dents the economic outlook, according to the NFIB
Japan: Service sentiment plunges as a more aggressive third wave of Covid19 emerges. The pandemic leaves Japan with the same problem but in a worse situation to mitigate headwinds
11. January 2021
Spain: The economy is losing steam. The vaccination process will be too slow to save the tourist season in 2021
China: Inflation normalises. It may be difficult for Beijing to keep their arms down. Insurrection in Washington and 'economic mitigation' in favour of Chinese exports. Can it get much better?
8. January 2021
USA: The Covid19 pandemic out of control hits the service sector hard in today's employment report
7. January 2021
USA: Soaring service sentiment despite no end to the pandemic. A significant bond market sell-off is in the pipeline
EU business and consumer survey: The rebound is on track but much weaker than in the United States
VIDEO: China's digital RMB - Beijing's view
Germany: Industrial orders jump in November. Growth will accelerate in Q2 unless South African and Romanian virus variants succeed in derailing the vaccination program
6. January 2021
USA: Weak ADP Employment Report is only one more argument for aggressive fiscal policy, according to the Democrats
The Outlook 2021 slides presentation
USA: The Georgia election could turn into the beginning of a larger bond market sell-off - and boosts the probability of more regulation of the tech sector
5. January 2021
USA: Manufacturing sentiment bounces back. Inflation pressure skyrockets in December by courtesy of the 'economic mitigation strategy'
Germany: Strong retail sales in November - more to come in Q2. Until then, Germany and the rest of Europe face the longest winter in living memory
4. January 2021
China: PMI survey continues to show robust growth. 'Jack Ma' is just yet another tycoon disappearing on the mainland
Sweden: Manufacturing sentiment jumps to the highest since 2010. Inflation pressure at the factory gates skyrockets
Significant pent-up demand from 'economic mitigation' - and more 'pent-up demand' to come in Q1 due to a failed Covid19 strategy in Europe and the United States
18. December 2020
The last date of updates in 2020 is on December 18. The first date of updates in 2021 is on 4 January
Germany: IFO survey was upbeat 'before' the decision of yet another national lockdown
A short note on what comes after 'the last hurdle' in the Covid19 pandemic
17. December 2020
USA: Philadelphia Fed survey heralds weaker-than-expected recovery in 2021
France: Service sentiment bounces back as the 'second wave' collapses. The 'yo-yo pandemic' will create a new wave in January. Macron has tested positive for Covid19
16. December 2020
USA: Upbeat consumer sentiment was not reflected in the November retail sales report. The case for significant fiscal stimulus measures is building
A short note on the US dollar and the euro: Short-term US dollar weakness to be followed by significant strength in the second half of 2021
Japan: The export sector disappoints significantly in November. Successful vaccines come too late to provide help in the coming months
15. December 2020
USA: The Empire State manufacturing survey shows a steep jump in price expectations
China: The economy continues gaining momentum, as Beijing still seems to be in control of the pandemic, according to sources
14. December 2020
Euro-zone: Industrial output bounces back sharply in October, but the rebound stalls according to forward-looking indicators. ECB is far more aggressive than the Federal Reserve
Podcast interview with Professor Torben M Andersen, former chairman of the Danish government's advisory Covid19 group: What have we learned from the pandemic? [LANGUAGE: DANISH]
China: Tight monetary policy puts a drag on house prices
Japan: The Bank of Japan's quarterly Tankan survey shows improvement in corporate sentiment, but spending plans remain downbeat
11. December 2020
USA: Household sentiment jumps in December even though daily Covid19 cases hit 210,000
USA: The current price environment is neither too hot nor too cold, but inflation pressure is building
10. December 2020
Britain: The economic rebound has stalled. There are far too many unsolved issues
9. December 2020
Australia: Consumer sentiment jumps to the highest level since 2010 as a successful Covid19 strategy benefits the economy and the people
Germany: The rebound in the export sector disappoints - and the outlook continues to deteriorate
China: Soaring imported supply of pork and meat makes consumer prices decline in November. Factory gate prices headed towards a sharp increase in 2021
8. December 2020
USA: The NFIB small business sentiment index fell in November. The six-month outlook plunged. Georgia runoff election could trigger bond market sell-off
Japan: The Economy Watcher index falls sharply in December after the 'third wave' of Covid19 inflates to a new record high
7. December 2020
Germany: Industrial output jumps in October, but Covid19 could trigger a double-dip recession
China benefits strongly from the failure to handle Covid19 in Europe and the United States - but secular headwinds will gain momentum in the coming years
4. December 2020
USA: The November employment report disappoints as a new Covid19 wave hits the shores. The wave will get even larger going into January
Germany: The rebound in industrial orders boosted by non-Euro-zone orders and strong demand for autos. IFO survey heralds short-term weakness
3. December 2020
USA: ISM service sentiment survey seems overly optimistic considering that the country faces the worst ever test of its healthcare system in the coming months
Euro-zone: Strong retail sales in October supported by pent-up demand and 'opening up'. Second thoughts in Berlin about Covid19 mitigation costs after yet another 'lock-down'
Turkey: Skyrocketing inflation in November makes leeway for another rate hike. President Erdogan is a case study of 'what not to do'
2. December 2020
Australia: Protecting the economy and the health of the people places the country among the top four in the world in 2020
Germany: Household spending skyrockets in October based on pent-up demand, but most German consumers face the 'mother of all headwinds' in 2021
1. December 2020
USA: Manufacturing sentiment declines in November but stays at an elevated level, as the economy is still exposed to unprecedented stimulus measures
Euro-zone: Deflationary pressure prevailed in November - at least according to the consumer basket used before the coronavirus outbreak. The picture could change rapidly
The Swiss economy bounces back sharply in Q3 to the relief of the world's biggest hedge fund, SNB
30. November 2020
Turkey: President Erdogan used all ammo to boost growth in Q3. Now comes skyrocketing Covid19 cases, higher policy rates - and Erdogan is still around
Japan: Highly efficient vaccines will reinforce the economic rebound, but the response to Covid19 has made 'old problems' even worse
PMI survey: China benefits from its Covid19 strategy and the failure of Europe and the US, which will be reinforced by surprisingly efficient vaccines
27. November 2020
EU survey: Service sentiment takes a beating before the next Covid19 wave in January - but export sentiment improves
China: Industrial profits jump as most engines are running - but do not get too excited as demographics is a much stronger headwind than assessed by many investors
26. November 2020
Germany: Consumer sentiment drops as the aftermath of Covid19 has just started despite several successful vaccines have emerged
More evidence of a slow supply-side response to aggressive 'economic mitigation' boosts the possibility of an inflation surprise in 2021
25. November 2020
USA: New home sales remain buoyant. A low inventory level of unsold homes indicates the strongest 'wealth effect' since 1980
USA: The economy is over-stimulated although Covid19 will create headwinds in November-January. Inflation could radically change the environment in 2021
South Korea: Business sentiment jumps in November. Export sentiment skyrockets to the highest since 2011 supported by China and 'economic mitigation' in Europe and the United States
24. November 2020
USA: Consumer confidence expectations decline in November, as the 'third wave' of Covid19 hits the shores
Germany: Manufacturing sentiment improves while service sentiment takes a beating in November
France: The second wave of Covid19 hits service business sentiment. This is 'history', as highly efficient vaccines 'saved the world', according to investors
23. November 2020
By Invitation: Time is up for Xi Jinping to make China greener
Asia: South Korean and Taiwanese statistics show a strong rebound in export activity
Euro-zone: High-efficacy vaccines have radically changed the game in the financial market, but Europe could face the most challenging wave in January
20. November 2020
Japan: Deflation prevails as the rebound remains weak. Tokyo faces a complicated inflation-versus-deflation scenario
19. November 2020
USA: Philadelphia Fed survey stays upbeat, as companies see beyond what could turn out to be the longest 'winter' within living memory
Business sentiment takes another beating as Britain 'cannot even see the tunnel'
Australia: A buoyant labour market provides a lesson to Europe and the United States - but it comes too late
18. November 2020
USA: Policymakers boosts housing demand, which creates short-term inflation as the supply-side is reluctant to react. The risk is, perversely, significant deflationary pressure from 2022
Japan: Chinese and US demand boost exports in October, but exporters face headwinds from a tough 'winter' in Europe and the United States
17. November 2020
There will only be delayed updates on November 17-18 due to the China webinar
16. November 2020
USA: Regional Empire State survey shows that investors and monetary policymakers should forget about the risk of deflation
Japan: Private consumption and net-exports propel the economy higher in Q3, but corporate spending shrinks
China: The economy gained momentum in October, as President Trump helped Beijing making 'China great again'. The world's biggest free-trade deal signed this weekend
13. November 2020
US households face tough months ahead as the third wave of the coronavirus hits the shore more forcefully than in H1. There is no Covid19 strategy until January 20
USA: The federal deficit jumps in October boosted by soaring Covid19-related spending and the Trump tax cuts in 2017
12. November 2020
Euro-zone: A weak industrial report in September. A vaccine will not prevent a stop-and-go economy, as Covid19 will take a heavy toll until April-May
Japan: Falling machinery orders in September are a huge disappointment. Japan's and the global business sector want to 'see more' before boosting investments. This could close the output gap faster than expected in several sectors
Britain: The economy bounces back in Q3, but the UK remains among the worst-performing countries in 2020. 'Covid19 mutation' is 'skyrocketing public sector debt'
11. November 2020
The only difference between Turkey and Brazil is that President Erdogan finally acknowledges his big policy mistakes. Do not expect Bolsonaro to do the same
USA: Joe Biden won the election, but time is with Donald Trump, at least until January 5, as the Republicans need him in Georgia's run-off election
China faces 'monetary tightening' caused by its own success and the 'failure' of Europe and the United States. Monetary exit talk is premature
Australia benefits strongly from a 'close to zero-tolerance' strategy and aggressive global easing - but Beijing widens 'trade embargo'
10. November 2020
USA: Small business sentiment remains highly upbeat - even before yesterday's positive vaccine news
Germany: ZEW survey shows that Europe is headed towards trouble without a 'mass-distributed' vaccine tomorrow - and not in April 2021
China: Consumer prices decline due to imported pork and meat supply, but no signs of 'core deflation'
9. November 2020
The beginning of the end for the Erdogan dynasty? A fired central bank governor and the President's son-in-law resigning make the lira rally
Japan: Manufacturing sentiment bounces back strongly in October, but service sentiment remains significantly below the pre-Covid19 level. Unwinding short-Japan-stock-market strategy
China: Exporters are among the main beneficiaries of the 'economic mitigation' strategy in Europe and the United States
6. November 2020
USA: The rebound in the labour market was stronger than market expectations in  October - but there is still a long way to go
Germany: Industrial production report disappoints. Hard data fails to show what is outlined by soft data. When will policymakers focus on the problem, a virus?
5. November 2020
USA: Weekly jobless claims report remains a harbinger of a strong October employment report on Friday
Sweden: The economy bounces back nicely in Q3. A strong fiscal position makes the country well-prepared for a bumpy 2021
Germany: Industrial orders lost momentum in September, but the outlook remains positive, according to IFO
4. November 2020
USA: ISM service sentiment survey disappoints shortly before the election. Today, the situation is no better than two days ago
USA: ADP Employment report disappoints significantly considering a sharp decline in the weekly 'continued jobless claims' number
Spain: Public hiring and the furlough scheme are not enough to support the labour market. Daily Covid19 cases have doubled within two weeks
A short note on the not yet clarified US election: The outcome is a catastrophe for Joe Biden and the Democratic Party considering heavy headwinds for President Trump in the form of Covid19
China: Private service sentiment index jumps in October. Jack Ma is 'reprimanded' after sticking his neck out too often
3. November 2020
Turkey: Skyrocketing inflation at the factory gates bodes ill for consumer price inflation and the lira in the coming months by courtesy of President Erdogan
2. November 2020
USA: ISM manufacturing index jumps in October. The orders index skyrocketed to the highest level since January 2004
A short note on the next leg of the Covid19 storyboard: A peak in November makes leeway for the next wave by mid-January
China: The economy shows no signs of slowing, according to the official as well as the private PMI surveys. Beijing provides hints of what the next five-year plan might include
30. October 2020
Japan: The manufacturing sector bounces back, but headwinds prevail. Global risk-off could lead to sharp yen appreciation and, consequently, a steep sell-off in the stock market
Germany: A robust recovery in Q3, but the second wave of Covid19 has now hit the shore and triggered a new 'national lockdown'
France: The economy bounces back strongly in Q3 propelled by policymakers' one and only 'plan A' - but there is no 'plan B' to fight the next leg in the Covid19 storyboard
29. October 2020
USA: The economy bounced back sharply in Q3 supported by strong private consumption and inventories. The next leg of a still untamed coronavirus will hit growth and the stock market in the coming months
Euro-zone: The manufacturing sector adjusting to Covid19 will no longer be enough to mitigate the impact of a suffering service sector
South Korea: Manufacturing and service sentiment jumps in October, as the country sacrifices 'privacy' to fight a pandemic
28. October 2020
Spain needs significant financial support, but this will be an uphill struggle as rich EU-members face their own Covid19 problems
Sweden: Economic sentiment improves in October, but 'what happened one week ago is old news' in Covid19 times
27. October 2020
USA: The Conference Board consumer survey shows an improving 'present situation' but falling expectations. Households' assessment of the labour market improves markedly
USA: Corporate spending continues to disappoint despite upbeat spending plans
Euro-zone: The ECB takes the lead in the global money-printing competition. This could weaken the 'euro-bull case'
South Korea: The economy bounces back in Q3, but the outlook is weak
26. October 2020
USA: The September new home sales report disappoints, but a low supply of unsold houses will continue to add upward pressure on existing home prices
Turkey: The costs of creating a rebound have been huge. Foreign exchange reserves are at the lowest level since 2005
Germany: IFO business survey shows a sharp decline in service sentiment while manufacturing sentiment improves
23. October 2020
USA: Existing home prices skyrocketing at the fastest rate since 2005 propelled by aggressive monetary easing
22. October 2020
Britain: CBI Trends survey gives rise to some optimism were it not for the fact that daily Covid19 cases tripled in the last two weeks
The case for selling the stock market
France: Service sentiment takes a beating as new Covid19 cases are skyrocketing
Germany: Households are losing confidence in the long-term outlook for the economy, according to the GFK consumer survey. Daily Covid19 cases jump above 11,000
21. October 2020
Britain: Fiscal deficit in September hits the highest level since 1993, as tensions between Sunak and Johnson emerge
20. October 2020
USA: Housing starts report disappoints, but the outlook remains strong. Be aware of fiscal policymakers changing policy stance after the November election
Taiwan: The details in a strong export orders report are, to no small extent, a reflection of different Covid19 strategies around the world
China: House price increases cool as regulators impose rules to put a lid on prices. Capital searching high and low for return will support the housing market in the short to medium term
19. October 2020
WEBINAR: Beijing's new assertiveness. A new reality for investors and companies in the new world order
China: Strong imports put a lid on Q3 GDP growth as a 'successful' Covid19 strategy boosts domestic demand
16. October 2020
USA: Manufacturing output report in September disappoints significantly despite buoyant soft data
USA: Retail sales jump in September as the economy is exposed to the biggest stimulus wave since the Second World War
15. October 2020
USA: Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey maintains an upbeat short and long-term outlook. New orders index hits the highest level ever recorded
The second leg of Covid19 will test policymakers in the United States and Europe whose 'plan A' is based on 'economic mitigation' and a vaccine 'tomorrow' - but 'mitigation' will not make a virus go away
China: Falling food inflation puts a lid on consumer price inflation. Deflation still prevails at the factory gates
14. October 2020
China: Monetary statistics report shows that shadow banking has been the main credit facilitator during Covid19. Yuan appreciation makes leeway for more monetary easing
Australia: Consumer sentiment jumps as a prudent and more efficient Covid19-strategy pays off
13. October 2020
USA: Small business sentiment jumps in September. Inflation will soon make a comeback, according to NFIB
Britain: Poorly-educated workers and Prime Minister Johnson face trouble as 'job support scheme' comes to an end. The hangover from the rebound efforts will be painful
China: The details in the September trade report show a solid recovery based, to a large extent, on 'feeling safe' rather than 'mitigation'. All of Qingdao's nine million citizens to be Covid19-tested
12. October 2020
China is forced to join the global bandwagon of money-printing even though such a policy is not yet required
Podcast interview: What comes next when Angela Merkel steps down in 2021? Learn more about Germany's political landscape in this interview with Moritz Schramm, Associate Professor
9. October 2020
Until recently, Italy has handled the aftermath of the first wave better than Spain. This may be changing
Britain: The rebound is losing steam due to serious human-made policy-mistakes. New Covid19 cases are skyrocketing
8. October 2020
Germany: August trade report shows a stronger-than-market-expected rebound. Berlin reacts as the 'second wave of Covid19' has started
Japan: Economy Watchers Survey shows a sharp rebound in service sentiment as 'new hope' replaces 'old hope' as Prime Minister ' and deflationary pressure supports consumer sentiment
7. October 2020
Britain: Monetary policymakers sponsor soaring house prices, but the underlying economic momentum remains weak
Spain will soon need more help from Brussels, as Madrid's Covid19 strategy has failed big time. Is Italy headed in the same direction?
6. October 2020
USA: President Trump succeeded in deflating the trade deficit with China. Nonetheless, the overall deficit hit a new all-time high in August
Germany: Industrial orders jump in August as the country benefits from the reopening of Europe and the fact that Berlin remains in control of Covid19
5. October 2020
USA: Service sentiment rose in September as the economy faces tailwinds from fiscal and monetary policy
Euro-zone: Belgium and Germany boost retail sales in August. A bumpy road lies ahead
Turkey: Soaring inflation at the factory gates spell trouble for consumer price inflation. Ankara could soon face Russia in an escalating Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict
2. October 2020
USA: September employment report shows a decline in the pace of improvement shortly ahead of the 'second wave' of Covid19
The 'Divided States of America' face a bumpy road, whoever gets elected in November
1. October 2020
USA: ISM manufacturing index declined in September but remains buoyant as Covid19 triggered a prescription of 'healing medicine' to the stock market and the corporate sector
Sweden benefits from European and US efforts to mitigate the impact of Covid19. This could backfire in 2021
Bank of Japan's quarterly survey shows a significantly weaker rebound than in most other countries
30. September 2020
Switzerland: Economic Barometer index jumps to the highest level since June 2010, as the economy faces several tailwinds - at least for now
China: The official manufacturing and service PMI surveys show a strengthening economic rebound. President Xi Jinping does not look back
USA: Consumer confidence index jumps in September supported by an unprecedentedly aggressive fiscal and monetary approach to an underestimated virus. There is no 'plan B'
Podcast interview with Jens Eskelund, Vice President of the European Chamber in China, about the situation for European companies in China
29. September 2020
Spain: The rebound in retail sales continues, but new Covid19 cases hit a new all-time high
Euro-zone: EU survey continues to show an economic rebound on track as unprecedented stimulus measures create 'very expensive' growth
By Invitation: Xi Jinping's response to complex challenges - China's 14th 5-year plan on the way
28. September 2020
China: Industrial profits remain on a path of getting closer to 'normalisation'. The Communist Party tightens its grip on the private sector
25. September 2020
US durable goods orders report disappoints despite a sharp rebound in the best forward-looking indicators
Britain: Indecisive Covid19 strategy keeps consumer confidence at a depressed level. A second wave could create the right environment for a double-dip recession
24. September 2020
USA: Money-printing will propel US house prices much higher in the coming months, as unsold 'new homes' hit a new all-time low
Germany: IFO survey shows a sharp increase in manufacturing sentiment, but a new wave of Covid19 could soon pull the service sector into a 'downswing'
France: Manufacturing sentiment improves but the service sector faces significant headwinds from a 'second wave' of Covid19 exceeding the peak in April
23. September 2020
Germany: Consumer sentiment barely improves in 'October' as European countries face a bumpier road due to Covid19 fatigue
22. September 2020
USA: The Federal Reserve's 'rescue mission' propels home sales higher and not least house prices
Britain: The misery continues, according to the September CBI Industrial Trends survey
EU: Dutch consumer confidence survey does not give rise to optimism. There is no 'plan B' to fill the gap from now to an efficient vaccine is distributed in 2021
21. September 2020
Strong Taiwanese export orders report shows, yet again, that a 'zero-tolerance Covid19 strategy' seems, so far, to have been the most successful
Covid19 pulls Japan back into the deflation zone
18. September 2020
USA: Consumer sentiment bounces back at a painfully slow pace supported by an improving labour market and a slowing trend in Covid19 cases. This could soon change because a second wave might be in the pipeline
Britain: Retail sales bounce back, as a 'second wave' hits the shore - and might soon turn into a more forceful wave because a new 'national lock-down' is out of the question
Podcast interview with Christine Stabell Benn, Professor in Global Health at the University of Southern Denmark, about 'fast-track' Covid19 vaccines and other tools in the toolbox [FREE ACCESS]
17. September 2020
USA: Philadelphia Fed survey shows tentative signs of a manufacturing sector becoming 'slightly more self-propelled'. Corporate spending plans on the rise
Global macroeconomic chart update
USA: The NAHB homebuilder index jumps to the highest level since 1998 as Covid19 fuels the housing market
16. September 2020
US retail sales in August continue to bounce back, but progress is slowing. The rebound has far from turned self-propelled
Japan: Exports would have been much weaker without robust Chinese demand in August. Prime Minister Suga is a transition-figure
15. September 2020
USA: Industrial production is slowly moving back on track, but deflationary pressure will soon disappear
Germany: ZEW investor sentiment hits the highest level since February 2001
China's economic rebound continues as Beijing tries to keep the powder dry for more stimulus measures in 2021
14. September 2020
Euro-zone: The manufacturing rebound continues but will soon face headwinds. Deflation in 2020 will be followed by 'mild inflation' and it ends up with yet another round of useless deflation
China: House prices remain on an upward trend supported by several factors, not least capital 'prevented' from going abroad
Japan: Reuters Tankan survey shows painfully slow progress, while Prime Abe is expected to be succeeded by his clone
11. September 2020
Spain: The rebound in the manufacturing sector was stronger-than-expected in July - but Covid19 will not go away 'despite money-printing'
China: Monetary statistics show no signs of aggressive easing, but there are still many unanswered questions about the country's future direction - corrected
Britain: The economy continues bouncing back in July, as the economy 'reopens'. New daily Covid19 cases soar and Labour closes the gap in the latest opinion polls
10. September 2020
USA: Deflation pressure prevails in 2020, but the case for 'mild inflation' in 2021 is building sponsored by central banks 'cutting corners'
Italy: Industrial output bounces back faster-than-market-expectations, as the 'play button' has not yet been pressed in Europe
Britain: Three factors propel house prices higher, ironically, at the same time as British households face tremendous headwinds
9. September 2020
China: Inflation pressure declines in August. China could play an important adverse role for US and European households' real purchasing power in 2021 and beyond
8. September 2020
Brazil: President Bolsonaro combining 'national' and 'socialist' propels his approval rating significantly higher but spells trouble for the country
‌German exporters face a highly chaotic future as Berlin speaking with a forked tongue is now backfiring
Japan: Economy Watchers Survey heralds a strong rebound in consumer spending, but this is contradicted by a weak Reuters Tankan survey
7. September 2020
Germany: Industrial production disappoints in July, but August and September will turn out to be very strong. Nonetheless, several dark clouds are on the horizon
China: Exports recover as Beijing 'cheats' President Trump thoroughly
4. September 2020
US August employment report shows a slower rate of improvement despite aggressive fiscal and monetary easing
Germany: Industrial orders bounce back at a slower-than-expected pace, but more short-term strength is in the pipeline
3. September 2020
USA: ISM service survey continues to herald a very strong Q3 GDP growth report, but the economy has not yet turned into a self-propelled recovery
2. September 2020
Britain: House prices soar to a new record high 'despite', or maybe 'because of', Covid19
Australia: The economy plunges into recession in Q2. Nonetheless, the country remains in an excellent position reinforced by 'unoriginal' policymakers in Europe and the United States
Covid19 has reinforced the decline of 'market forces' sponsored by central banks. Western policymakers prioritise 'mitigating the impact' rather than solving the problem
1. September 2020
USA: Manufacturing sentiment continues to surprise to the upside as the economy is fuelled by fiscal as well as monetary stimulus measures
Euro-zone: The first wave of Covid19 is 'deflationary'. The second wave is 'mild inflation' but without compensation for workers
Euro-zone: Public finances absorb the negative employment impact of Covid19 assuming the virus outbreak is a short-term phenomenon
Sweden: PMI survey underscores that the European economy might ride the storm in 2020 better-than-expected. Berlin revises its growth outlook
31. August 2020
Japan: Strong rebound in industrial output in July, but consumer confidence declines. The Bank of Japan inflates its balance sheet at the fastest rate ever recorded
China: The official PMI survey shows that the economy is closer to normalisation as 'zero-tolerance' Covid19 strategy proves a success
28. August 2020
Spain faces an uphill struggle. Therefore, the ECB will keep 'printing' and the northern states will be forced to 'keep giving' until something gives in
Switzerland: KOF economic sentiment index skyrockets to the highest level since 2010. Strong Chinese demand for luxury products
Euro-zone: Business sentiment skyrockets while consumer confidence and sentiment in the periphery are lagging
Germany: Consumer sentiment drops, but pent-up demand is strong after a sharp increase in Q2 savings. The political situation could deteriorate significantly in 2021 ahead of the Bundestag election
27. August 2020
The ECB creates the foundation for higher conventional and asset price inflation - and with only a few protests
France: Business sentiment skyrockets in August - but households could face headwinds in 2021 as the risk of 'inflation without compensation' is on the rise
China: Industrial profits bounce back propelled by higher margins and without the same aggressive stimulus measures as in Europe and the United States
26. August 2020
USA: Durable goods orders bouncing back will see more support from a central bank worried about a 'second wave' of Covid19
The Bank of Korea's monthly business sentiment survey continues to show recovery in sentiment, but hard data is still lagging
France: A half-hearted Covid19-strategy lays the foundation for returning outbreaks - and, therefore, no improvement in consumer sentiment
25. August 2020
USA: New home sales soar propelled by money-printing and Covid19, but consumer confidence falls sharply as policymakers fail to focus on health safety
Turkey: The economic rebound is too weak and the risk of significantly higher inflation is on the rise as the lira has gone into a tailspin
Germany: IFO survey continues to show improvement in sentiment as households and companies adapt to a new environment - reinforced by aggressive fiscal and monetary easing
Podcast interview with Jorgen Delman, China Studies, Copenhagen University, about how to handle relations with China without compromising our own ideals. Is Xi Jinping facing more internal opposition? [FREE ACCESS]
21. August 2020
Britain: Catastrophic CBI industrial survey underscores what lies ahead for an economy facing several shocks
European and US households will soon pay the real price of having rescued the stock market: Inflation without compensation
20. August 2020
USA: The regional manufacturing Philadelphia Fed survey shows a rebound losing steam. The same applies to the weekly jobless claims statistics
Taiwan continues riding high as if nothing has happened. Export orders statistics bode well for global trade except for Japan
Falling Dutch consumer confidence index underscores why Europe needs a smarter and more aggressive approach to Covid19. The union needs to prepare for the 'unlikely' outcome that an 'efficient' vaccine does not emerge
19. August 2020
Japan: Neither hard nor soft data give rise for much optimism. Core machinery orders fell much faster-than-expected in June
18. August 2020
USA: Housing starts and permits skyrocket in July as the housing market is yet again the main beneficiary of an external shock
Japan: A disappointing Reuters Tankan survey reduces the probability of a sharp rebound in economic activity in Q3
17. August 2020
Podcast interview with Anders Ellemann Kristensen in Beijing, General Manager, Albatros Travel China, about the reopening process, state-capitalism and how to profit from China in the future [FREE ACCESS]
USA: Buoyant NAHB homebuilders index and a weak manufacturing Empire State survey
Japan: Real economic activity collapses to a level not seen since Prime Minister Abe took office in 2012
14. August 2020
USA: Upbeat investor and business sentiment is not yet reflected in a downbeat University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey
USA: July retail sales report heralds a sharp rebound in Q3, but the economy needs to handle a 'second wave'
Germany has no choice but to preserve the EMU, whatever it takes, as Berlin is sitting on a ticking bomb. Full debt-sharing seems inevitable
China: The economic rebound loses momentum, but Xi Jinping remains self-confident about the superiority of state-capitalism
13. August 2020
USA: Weekly jobless claims statistics indicate the 'pace of improvement' in the labour market to slow
USA: July federal budget report provides insight into what a Biden-Harris administration might do after the election in November
Unwind the short-Japanese-stocks strategy
12. August 2020
USA: July CPI-report shows tentative signs of inflation making a comeback. The foundation for significantly higher inflation in 2021 is building, but price pressure will remain benign in 2020
Euro-zone: Industrial activity bounces back sharply in June, but Covid19 could make more trouble in the last quarter of 2020
Britain: The economy plummeted in Q2, but June statistics and forward-looking indicators give rise for 'some optimism'
Fiscal and monetary policymakers act as if there is no tomorrow - and barely anyone opposes the approach
11. August 2020
USA: Small business sentiment remains buoyant supported by fiscal and monetary policymakers going berserk
Germany: Investor sentiment jumps to the highest level since 2004
A sharp drop in the Economy Watchers survey's 'future conditions index' underscores the vulnerability of the Japanese economy and stock market
10. August 2020
China: A benign inflation picture, a successful Covid19 strategy and more than 150 million domestic tourists staying home benefit the economy
US employment report: The failure to control the first wave of Covid19 puts a drag on the reopening process
25. July 2020
Vacation: There will be no updates from July 25 to August 9 due to vacation
24. July 2020
‌‌Italy is not too big to fail; Italy is too big to save
Britain: Retail sales bounce back strongly in June, but household sentiment remains depressed
The global growth outlook deteriorates: 'First wave', 'second wave' and geopolitical risks creating massive headwinds to an overpriced global stock market
23. July 2020
USA: Weekly jobless claims show slowing progress in the labour market as the basis for unprecedented fiscal stimulus measures cracks
Germany: Consumer confidence skyrockets as households see a contained virus outbreak and unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus measures
France: Service sentiment skyrockets in July but no signs of a rebound in export optimism
South Korea: The economy contracts at the fastest pace since 1998 as a successful Covid19 strategy does not make the economy immune
22. July 2020
USA: Existing home sales bounce back supported by historically low mortgage rates
The global stock market discounting an 'efficient, reliable and fast-track' vaccine in 2020 leaves no room for growth disappointment
21. July 2020
A short note on the EU recovery deal
20. July 2020
Japan: June trade report sees no signs of a rebound in global trade
17. July 2020
USA: University of Michigan consumer survey is the first significant warning to policymakers not to ignore the ongoing resurgence of new daily Covid19 cases
16. July 2020
USA: Philadelphia Fed survey continues to herald a strong manufacturing rebound, but the six-month outlook index falls sharply
USA: June retail sales report shows that market consensus for 2020 is too pessimistic - at least for the time being
Britain: A better-than-expected labour market report does not change the fact the country is in big economic trouble
China: Domestic growth drivers in the hands of Beijing boost Q2 growth. Chinese exporters face a world drawing a line in the sand because of President Xi Jinping's assertive foreign policy
15. July 2020
USA: Industrial output bounces back in June, and more to come in Q3 - but Covid19 outbreak is out of control
Japan: Reuters Tankan survey shows a 'surprisingly' weak rebound in manufacturing sentiment, but the domestic-oriented service sentiment index jumps in July
A virus changes Berlin’s political landscape - Is Germany finally ready for a Bavarian Chancellor?
14. July 2020
US small business sentiment continues to recover as money printing and soaring federal deficit support the economy. Capital spending plans remain depressed
China: June trade report shows net-export was not a significant growth-contributor in Q2
USA: The federal fiscal deficit skyrockets to 15% of GDP. It's 'feeling safe, stupid'
13. July 2020
Turkey: Ankara launching aggressive fiscal and monetary stimulus measures erodes the foundation of the lira
Podcast interview with The Economist's Asia economics editor, Simon Rabinovitch, on China's economic and political situation - and how Beijing handles a hostile global environment