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Public
18. January 2022
Fiscal policy taking over the role of monetary policy will price the cost of credit according to market risks. The 'green transition' will require high private savings
Britain: Soaring unfilled vacancies will lead to a significantly lower unemployment rate - and faster monetary tightening
17. January 2022
China: The economy ended 2021 on a weak note caused by a very weak property market. PBOC cuts borrowing costs
15. January 2022
Podcast interview with Morten Springborg, C Worldwide Asset Management: Europe's green transition will create several energy crises in the coming years
14. January 2022
USA: Household sentiment remains depressed despite the strongest labour market for decades. Consumers' one and five-year inflation expectations increase again
The Outlook 2022 presentation is now available
China: The export sector was the growth engine in 2021. This will not be enough in 2022 due to omicron and significantly tighter monetary conditions in the United States and Europe
13. January 2022
USA: The next leg in the inflation story will come from wage pressure and service inflation
12. January 2022
USA: Consumer price inflation hits the highest level since June 1982. Getting inflation expectations back into the bottle requires aggressive monetary tightening
China: Beijing is in monetary 'stimulus mode', but this will turn out to be a slow process
China: Slow domestic demand, regulatory measures and falling pork prices put a lid on inflation in December. Has omicron made a hole in the zero-tolerance wall?
11. January 2022
Brazil: Inflation seems to have peaked, but a prudent central bank will hike policy rates again in February
USA: Small business sentiment survey shows wage inflation acceleration. The case for a first-rate-hike of 0.5% is on the rise
Japan: A weak recovery and low inflation. Tokyo used all ammo in the last two decades
7. January 2022
USA: The jobless rate dropping below the 'natural rate of unemployment' makes it difficult to fill job offers. Instead, this creates wage inflation
Euro-zone: Inflation continues higher as the underlying problems will not go away in 2022. A reluctant ECB president Lagarde 'beyond the reach of rational argument' will be forced to tighten 
6. January 2022
USA: Service sentiment drops from an all-time low, but service price inflation stays at the highest level since 2005
US Federal Reserve Minutes report shows that the central bank has lost its way. Policymakers move from 'the first rate hike in 2024' to 'monetary tightening coming sooner rather than later'
Germany: Industrial orders bounced back in November but headwinds gain momentum. Russia, omicron, and faster-than-expected Federal Reserve tightening
5. January 2022
USA: JOLTS survey shows a sharp jump in the quit rate, which will lead to strong wage gains in the first half of 2022
France: Consumers are in a much better position than in neighbouring Germany, so far, but a huge public sector debt could become an issue after the upcoming election
4. January 2022
USA: ISM manufacturing index declines in December - and inflation pressure declines as the anatomy of inflation changes
Germany: Unfilled vacancies hit a new all-time high in December as cost pressure increases
China: Manufacturing sentiment bounces back. Omicron gaining a foothold could turn into a game-changer as the mainland is 'unprotected'
3. January 2022
The European cocktail: Higher inventories and falling purchasing power will be disinflationary in Q2 - but does not prevent monetary tightening
Turkey: The Erdoganomics hurricane continues to devastate the economy. Inflation moves into the hyperinflation zone
The second inflation wave: Delayed pent-up price increases will trigger profound monetary tightening - and, consequently, slightly lower inflation in the second half of 2022
21. December 2021
The last day of updates is on December 21. Insightview will be back on January 3
Germany: Consumer sentiment plunges as households face multiple headwinds. Will Christian Lindner opting for Nagel instead of Scnabel as the next President of the Bundesbank make a difference?
20. December 2021
Britain: Factory gates inflation showing no signs of slowing hits industrial output. Natural gas prices soar to a new all-time high
Podcast interview with Peter Viggo Jakobsen from the Royal Defence College: Geopolitical risks in 2022
17. December 2021
Germany: The economy moves deeper into a downswing, as public opinion turns against the ECB. Soon, the penny will even drop for ECB's Lagarde 
16. December 2021
USA: Philadelphia Fed survey details show signs of 'demand destruction'. Short and long-term demand indicators fall sharply in December
France: Service sentiment takes a beating. President Macron is no longer a front-runner in next year's elections
USA: The Federal Reserve is still just talking. Mr Powell needs to walk the talk - and upcoming inflation statistics will force him to do so
15. December 2021
USA: A weak November retail sales report shows inflation creating headwinds to households
Britain: Inflation jumps and more is coming, as 'state-subsidised capitalism' is digging its own grave
China: The 'slump' continues - and now comes omicron - and the White House expands its 'blacklist'
14. December 2021
USA: Headline and core factory gates inflation jumps to a new record high. More in the pipeline. Omicron in China boosts the risk of more global supply chain disruption in Q1
USA: NFIB small business survey indicates 8% inflation in the first quarter of 2022. Six-month outlook index hit a new all-time low
Britain: A tight labour market raises wages for workers with the right skills, but real wage erosion could soon turn into the main trend. Natural gas prices hit a new all-time high
13. December 2021
Germany: Wholesales price inflation hitting the highest since 1962 is a harbinger of higher consumer price inflation in the first quarter of 2022
10. December 2021
USA: University of Michigan consumer sentiment index bounces back from a low level as a tight labour market mitigates the negative impact of higher inflation - as long as it lasts
USA: Consumer price inflation jumps to the highest since 1982 - and there is more in the pipeline as the Federal Reserve has not yet walked the talk
Podcast interview with Torbjörn Hamnmark, the Third Swedish National Pension Fund, AP3: How to adapt to what looks like several paradigm shifts in the global economy and financial market
9. December 2021
Brazil and Poland raise policy rates, precisely as 'know-it-all experts' in Europe and the US taught them in the past. Today, the ECB and Federal Reserve need advice from abroad
China: Consumer price inflation is not the problem - but a 'domestic slump'
7. December 2021
Germany: Industrial output bounces back in October as there is some relief from the global supply chain, but factory gates price pressure remains high
China: Imports propelled higher by restocking. What could prove to be the implications of the 'Taiwan question' on top of Beijing's agenda after the winter Olympics?
6. December 2021
China cuts banks' reserve requirement ratio by 50 basis points in a highly defensive move
Germany: Industrial orders plunged in October. Export companies face more trouble because Annalena Baerbock could radically change foreign policy - unless she is hit by the 'economic-reality roadblock'
3. December 2021
USA: The service sector showing signs of accelerating demand to a new all-time high and strong price pressure will force the Federal Reserve to act sooner rather than later
USA: The November labour market report shows a weak nonfarm payroll number but a sharp decline in the unemployment rate
Turkey: Inflation exceeds 20% and factory gates prices skyrocket by 55%. No light at the end of the tunnel
2. December 2021
Brazil was in a 'technical recession' in the third quarter. The central bank could be forced to raise policy rates by 400 basis points in 2022 
Euro-zone producer price inflation skyrockets to 22%. It is challenging for households and companies to maintain confidence in the ECB
Podcast interview with Kirsten Malling Biering, a former Danish diplomat and ambassador to France, about the French Presidential election in 2022
1. December 2021
USA: The disruption of the global supply chain has not yet dented the demand side to the same extent as in Europe, according to the manufacturing ISM survey
Switzerland enjoys the benefit of a strong currency: Low inflation and robust growth. Conversely, the ECB's next decision will be crucial for the union
Germany: In October, supply chain disruption put a lid on retail sales. Inflation across the board will create headwinds to household spending going into 2022
30. November 2021
USA: Conference Board consumer survey shows skyrocketing inflations expectations - and the tightest labour market since 1978
Euro-zone inflation soars: History shows that 'uncontrolled inflation' most often creates the foundation for dramatic political changes
China: The official PMI index bounces back, but the economy is headed for significantly slower growth in 2022. Omicron and 'zero-tolerance strategy' spells trouble for the economy
29. November 2021
Germany: Consumer price inflation jumping to the highest since 1992 erodes the credibility of the ECB, according to German voters
EU Commission business and consumer survey shows inflation pressure is broadening to the entire economy
Turkey: Consumer confidence plunges to the lowest ever. Hyperinflation may now be the next phase unless Erdogan pulls himself together
26. November 2021
Australia shows the implications of a central bank no longer having a love affair with bond investors. This is a warning to the ECB and the Federal Reserve
Sweden: NIER Economic Tendency Survey shows no signs of falling inflation pressure. The opposite is the case
25. November 2021
Germany: The 'perfect match coalition' is what the voters opted for. The big winner is the FDP, but the coalition agenda could turn into a nightmare for the Green Party
24. November 2021
Britain: Industrial orders and inflation skyrocket to the highest since 1977. A rate hike on December 16 comes too late to restore the credibility of the Bank of England 
Germany: The November IFO survey is a harbinger of no growth going into 2022
France: Insee business survey continues to show a robust recovery, but inflation pressure is still on the rise
23. November 2021
Euro-zone: Consumer confidence declines as inflation has turned into the primary headwind. What does Christine Lagarde have in common with President Erdogan?
18. November 2021
There will be no updates on November 19 and 22
USA: Philadelphia Fed survey shows skyrocketing inflation expectations, strong short-term demand and weak long-term growth
Turkey is maybe a special case, but the Federal Reserve and the ECB are using many of the same arguments of denial as President Erdogan
Central banks talking about 'transitory inflation' when fiscal policymakers are still going berserk seems naive. Tokyo considers launching 'the mother of all fiscal stimulus packages'
17. November 2021
USA: A weak housing market report in October does not change a picture of very strong housing demand
Britain: Inflation jumps in October as the Bank of England and other central banks look like Kamikaze pilots
16. November 2021
USA: Strong retail sales in October, but downbeat consumer surveys indicate heavy headwinds from inflation 
British companies absorbing former furloughed workers do not prevent 'unfilled vacancies' from hitting a new all-time high
15. November 2021
USA: Empire State survey shows high demand, but also companies' limited ability to fulfil orders. Inflation and delivery time jump - and the future outlook declines
China: Economic activity is still trending lower despite a minor blip in October. House prices continue the downward trend
By Invitation: Spinning China's Communist Party History in favour of Xi Jinping
12. November 2021
USA: Consumer sentiment declines as the Federal Reserve leaving inflation expectations out of the bottle creates more headwinds than tailwinds. Recession will be needed to get it back into the bottle
Germany: Wholesale price inflation jumping to the highest since 1974 could have significant domestic and global ramifications
11. November 2021
Podcast interview with Jacob Pedersen, Head of Equity Research at Sydbank: Anecdotal evidence of supply chain disruption but no signs yet of significant labour shortage problems
'Congratulation' to Japan: Producer price inflation jumps to the highest level since 1980 
10. November 2021
USA: Yet another catastrophic inflation report turns Powell into a transitory figure at the Federal Reserve
The Reserve Bank of Australia shows how difficult the long-overdue monetary U-turn will be in the United States and Europe. Only minor signs of 'less commitment' lead to the biggest yield increase since 1994
Podcast interview with Pelle Dragsted, a left-wing Danish politician and former member of the Danish parliament: Why have the left and market liberals been hesitant when it comes to criticising the European Central Bank's aggressive monetary expansion?
China: Factory gates inflation hits the highest since the devaluation in 1994 leaving less room for manoeuvring for Beijing
9. November 2021
USA: PPI inflation report shows domestic supply chain inflation hitting a new all-time high of 22.6% year-on-year
USA: NFIB small business survey is a harbinger of 6% consumer price inflation - and stagflation
Japan: Service sentiment jumps in October. Higher inflation poses a threat to consumer sentiment, but Tokyo plans to launch a huge fiscal stimulus package equivalent to 5% of GDP
8. November 2021
China's trade surplus hits a new all-time high as the US and European dependence on Beijing continues to increase. Chinese winter arriving earlier-than-expected spells trouble for Europe
USA: The long-overdue infrastructure bill is well-timed if it was combined with monetary tightening. Only a 'car crash' can convince the Federal Reserve to raise policy rates
5. November 2021
USA: A strong labour market will see even more support from an economy that will show stronger demand in the coming months
Germany: Manufacturing output continues lower - now down by 9.5% compared to February 2020. The ECB does not recognise it is part of the problem
4. November 2021
Euro-zone factory gates inflation hits a new record high - but no signs of relief. Inflation expected to impact coalition negotiations in Berlin
Germany: Industrial orders disappoint again as supply chain disruption hits across the board. No signs of relief. Covid cases hit a new all-time high
3. November 2021
USA: ISM service survey shows the headline index hitting a new all-time high - and a sharp increase in inflation pressure to a level not seen since 2005
Sweden: The next leg of inflation - soaring service prices. The window of opportunity is closing for Europe's central banks
Turkey: Does higher inflation in October mean lower policy rates? Yes, according to 'Erdoganomics'. The economy is back to the 2008 level
2. November 2021
South Korea: October inflation report makes leeway for the next policy hike in November
Podcast interview with Steen Jakobsen, Saxo Bank: What is the main purpose of central banks ignoring inflation - and what are the consequences?
1. November 2021
USA: Manufacturing ISM survey shows no signs of softening inflation pressure - the opposite is the case. Plenty of shortages put a drag on orders
USA: Today, the foundation for strong wage increases is much better than after the financial crisis due to more adverse demographics
China: The economy, which shows more signs of weakness and higher inflation pressure, makes the road ahead a delicate balancing act
29. October 2021
Euro-zone: The economy benefits from financial repression, and accumulated household savings, which are now being eroded by inflation
Q3 GDP report: France enjoys the benefit of not following in Germany's footsteps - so far
Japan: Manufacturing output plunges to the lowest level seen since August 2020 as global supply disruption takes its toll
28. October 2021
USA: The Q3 GDP report shows weak real GDP growth - and significant inventory build-up
Spain's October CPI index jumps far beyond market expectations. Soon, the biggest shortage could turn out to be 'excuses' at the ECB and the Federal Reserve
Sweden: The economy grows strongly in Q3 and the outlook remains strong. CPI inflation pressure is building
27. October 2021
USA: A moderate durable goods orders report does not change the fact that capital spending plans are on the rise
Germany: 'Confusing' consumer survey shows an unchanged headline index, but income expectations plunge as inflation expectations soar
26. October 2021
USA: New home sales report moves a bit away from the 'unthinkable' - recession. Nonetheless, service price inflation accelerates, according to a regional non-manufacturing survey
Sweden: Factory gates inflation hits the highest since the currency turmoil in the early 1990s
South Korea: The global supply chain mess hits investments in Q3. More disruption in the pipeline - not least from geopolitics
25. October 2021
The stimulus measures have turned into a dangerous boomerang: The IFO survey is now a harbinger of significantly slower growth
22. October 2021
Britain: The first wave of higher energy prices hit the shore in September. The second wave hit in October, according to the latest GfK consumer confidence survey
21. October 2021
USA: Philadelphia Fed survey shows 'moderate' short-term demand, but also that shortages and higher prices will hit activity soon
Britain: Factory gates inflation pressure is now at the highest since the 'Second Oil Crisis' in 1979 - and winter has not even arrived
The service sector propels business sentiment higher, as France sees tailwinds from a successful vaccination strategy and by not replicating Berlin's energy policy
Podcast interview with think tank Europa: Is there a risk that the energy crisis derails the European Union's green transition?
20. October 2021
The Germans are losing the remaining confidence in a European Central Bank, which has completely lost touch with reality on the ground
China: The 'official' decline in the housing market has started. Beijing discusses again the introduction of a national property tax
19. October 2021
President Erdogan against the rest of Turkey
18. October 2021
USA: The manufacturing sector comes to a standstill caused by bottlenecks in the global supply chain
China's economic growth slows as Beijing can no longer ignore a high number of headwinds, which have properties of being 'secular'
Global macroeconomic presentation: Inflation, energy prices, China and the next coalition in Germany
14. October 2021
There will be no updates on Friday, October 15
USA: Slightly softer headline and core PPI inflation in September, but core intermediate materials inflation hits the highest level since the mid-1970s
China: Factory gates inflation hits the highest level since 1995. Many factories are forced to shut down production without any notice
13. October 2021
USA: Today's consumer price report shows no signs of transitory inflation. A tight labour market boosts the risk of 'second-round inflation'
China trade report: Is the economy slowing as dramatically as outlined by the foreign media? No, Insightview's sources argue
12. October 2021
USA: NFIB small business survey shows soaring inflation pressure - 'Inflation is running strong but the Federal Reserve is only running away'
Germany: Investor sentiment takes a 'short-term' beating in October. Several headwinds are slowly emerging
Podcast interview: The 'collapse' of the global supply chains and logistics. 'On the ground' insights from China. Decoupling or recoupling?
11. October 2021
Italy: The economy is exposed to tailwinds from a successful vaccination process and Prime Minister Draghi's ability to get financial support from Brussels
8. October 2021
USA: The September employment report shows more evidence of an economy short of nearly everything - also common sense at the Federal Reserve
Podcast interview with Stig Thoegersen, China expert: Is Beijing's policy of common prosperity just a policy tool to retain power?
7. October 2021
Britain: House prices jump at the fastest rate since 2007. Central banks fighting the wrong war could soon be forced to shock the financial market
Germany: Industrial production plunges to the lowest level since September 2020. The EU is now Moscow's hostage - if anyone did not know already
6. October 2021
USA: ADP Employment Report shows strong jobs growth in a very tight labour market
Germany: Industrial orders plunge as supply chain chaos turns ugly. It will get worse as European policymakers have learned nothing from the 'invasion of Russia'
5. October 2021
USA: Service sector sentiment remains buoyant, but inflation pressure regains momentum
No signs of slower Euro-zone factory gates inflation. China shipping expert: 'Get used to elevated container freight rates out of China'
4. October 2021
The peculiar policy response of central banks and politicians to external shocks moved one step too far: The 'reckoning' approaches as the penny will soon drop at central banks
1. October 2021
USA: ISM manufacturing index improves at the same time as inflation at the factory gates regains momentum
Euro-zone inflation jumps in September - but the trend of elevated inflation has just started. IG Metall boss calls for a 'decent increase instead of real wage losses'
Sweden: PMI survey still shows a 'buoyant' economy, but inflation pressure jumps. Lagarde warns against 'overreacting' although the ECB has not yet reacted
Japan's Tankan survey shows improvement. Nonetheless, this is history as the aftermath of Western 'Covid stimulus measures' has hit the shore
30. September 2021
Podcast interview with Ole Hansen, commodity market expert: Is the rally in commodity prices really transitory - or is the world headed for a new super-cycle?
China: The manufacturing sector facing logistics bottlenecks, Covid and energy outages plunges into the contraction zone
29. September 2021
EU Commission's business and consumer survey: No signs of dark clouds on the horizon - so far - but inflation pressure soars
Germany: The 'perfect storm' will create significantly higher inflation - and the risk of derailing the 'climate change agenda' in Europe. The credibility of European policymakers is at risk
28. September 2021
US Conference Board consumer survey: The boomerang created by a very expensive recovery after the pandemic is coming back with a vengeance
China: Corporate profit under pressure as centrally-committed green emission targets, post-Covid-related high demand and supply constraints create heavy headwinds. Energy blackouts on the rise - Insightview sources
Germany: The Green Party and the FDP are now negotiating directly at the same time as Berlin's energy policy is on the edge of collapsing
27. September 2021
Updated Bundestag election: The Green Party turning left and FDP's Christian Lindner saying in 2017 'it is better not to govern than to govern badly' spell trouble for upcoming coalition negotiations
24. September 2021
The possible outcome of the Bundestag election: Only two viable coalitions out of five possible
Germany's IFO survey: The 'collapse' of the global supply chain hits manufacturing and retailer sentiment
Britain Gfk Consumer survey: Soaring energy prices, Brexit and tax hike plan overshadow tailwinds from a tight labour market
23. September 2021
Western central banks will be forced to raise the white flag - but this will come too late to prevent a hard landing because the bottlenecks remain. Norway raises policy rates
France: In relative comparison, the economy is in a better position than most European countries. Moreover, the main energy source is nuclear power
22. September 2021
USA: The classic indicators show signs of a 'late-cycle economy' caused by capacity constraints
21. September 2021
Beijing's response to the long-overdue Evergrande crisis will reflect 'common prosperity' and President Xi Jinping's willingness to take risks - but Beijing aims for a 'controlled unwinding'
20. September 2021
Germany: Factory gates inflation skyrockets to a new record high. More in the pipeline as the impact of Merkel's 'energy policy' hits the shore
The email-server problem has been solved
17. September 2021
USA: UoM survey shows surprisingly downbeat consumer sentiment as households' inflation expectations continue higher
The risk of a hard landing in the global economy is on the rise due to central bankers who are experts in 'fighting fires they set alight themselves'
16. September 2021
USA: Retail sales jump sharply in August despite falling consumer confidence. Philadelphia Fed survey shows the first profound late-cycle signs 'after' Covid
A short note on why the US-UK-Australia security pact is one more step towards decoupling between China and the rest of the world. 'Containment'
Japan: The economy is not much better than the rest of the world makes it. Supply chain problems hit exports and manufacturing sentiment
Recommendation: Take short-term profit in 'short 30-year German Bund future' strategy
15. September 2021
USA: Manufacturing output data show only a slow increase in the supply side, while the Empire State survey shows strong demand
British inflation data shows signs of 'delayed price pressure'. Soaring electricity and heating prices will make the inflation picture even worse in Q4
China: Weak economic data will soon test Beijing's skills more profoundly. Evergrande 'default' will not go away. New virus outbreak in Fujian
14. September 2021
USA: Core consumer price inflation slows in August, but price pressure will stay high in the coming months
Britain: The number of unfilled job vacancies exceeding one million leaves few other options than launching monetary tightening sooner rather than later
No signs of falling inflation pressure. Electricity and gas prices are skyrocketing. ECB and Federal Reserve could be forced to respond faster at the same time as China's debt crisis gets worse
13. September 2021
Turkey: The economy faces headwinds as stimulus measures are running out of steam
SPD's Olaf Scholz is not the solution. Merkel departure will release conflicting political forces in Germany and the rest of Europe. WPI inflation at the highest level since 1974
10. September 2021
USA: Producer price inflation hits a new record high even though wage inflation has just started
China: Beijing's policy U-turn is not yet visible in monetary statistics. ‌The latest on President Xi's 'reform' process
Spain: The economic recovery remains strong despite weaker-than-expected industrial output data in July. Madrid turns left as the rest of Europe
9. September 2021
China: Factory gates inflation gains momentum, but a 'radical' political shift poses a much larger risk
The mismatch between the supply and the demand sides worsens in the labour market. Sell the US stock market
8. September 2021
The yield curve and 'tapering'
7. September 2021
Germany: ZEW survey shows the economy hitting a huge roadblock as the ECB scores own goal
China: August trade report makes a positive surprise, but the economy faces headwinds. Internal power struggle in Beijing?
6. September 2021
Germany: 'Big items' boost industrial orders in July. Bottlenecks create roadblocks for economic activity
China: The Second Cultural Revolution?
USA and Europe: The worst central banks since Arthur Burns in the 1970s create stagflation
1. September 2021
Vacation: There will be no updates from August 23 to September 3, 2021
24. August 2021
Podcast interview with Camilla Noerup Soerensen: China enters the graveyard of empires, Afghanistan. What are the ramifications?
20. August 2021
Germany: Factory inflation, sponsored by irresponsible Western central banks and fiscal policymakers, is skyrocketing at the fastest annual rate since the 1970s
19. August 2021
USA: Philadelphia Fed survey shows more signs of stagflation. The Delta variant creating more supply chain havoc in China will maintain high inflation pressure in the US
Japan: Business sentiment jumps across the board despite soaring Covid cases and global supply chain challenges
A short note on the consequences of Beijing becoming 'socialist', this time, with 'real socialist characteristics'
USA: Tapering combined with a recovery in inflation and real growth rapidly reduces excess liquidity to the disadvantage of asset prices
18. August 2021
The global bottlenecks will not go away because the Delta variant will aggravate the mismatch between the supply and demand sides. The US Federal Reserve will soon have to make a difference
17. August 2021
USA: The July retail sales report disappoints, but it is difficult to say whether this is caused by higher inflation, Covid or a shortage of supply
Britain: The labour market recovers strongly. The share of companies 'planning to hire' and 'unfilled vacancies' jump to the highest level on record
16. August 2021
China: The economy is losing momentum. Beijing pursues a strategy of 'targeted tightening and universal easing'
USA: Consumer sentiment takes a beating due to soaring Covid cases and self-inflicted headwinds in the form of rising inflation
13. August 2021
Germany: The next Bundestag could turn out to be the most unruly parliament since the Weimar Republic
12. August 2021
USA: 'Transitory' producer price inflation continues gaining momentum for longer, as the Federal Reserve considers how to make a U-turn without losing face
Euro-zone: Man-made bottlenecks in the global supply chain puts a lid on manufacturing output
11. August 2021
US inflation report provides relief, but too much demand hunting too few goods will keep inflation at an elevated level beyond 'transitory'
A divorce between monetary and fiscal policymakers seems inevitable. Soon, central banks are forced to call a spade a spade
Sell the German 30-year government bond future
10. August 2021
USA: Small business survey shows tentative signs of stagflation. The Federal Reserve still faces a tiny window of opportunity, but it is closing rapidly
Germany: ZEW economic sentiment index falls sharply in August, as the side-effects of aggressive monetary and fiscal easing hit the shores
Australia: Business sentiment plunges, as Australia gives lessons to Europe and US on what to expect if we do not get it right over the coming winter
USA: JOLTS report underscores dissent at the Federal Reserve. The missing link between aggressive stimulus measures and 'climate change.'
9. August 2021
Podcast interview with Casper Wichmann, China expert: Who is next in Beijing's crackdown on the corporate sector?
China: Benign inflation 'sponsored' by falling pork prices opens a window of opportunity for more monetary easing - but this is a delicate balancing act due to soaring factory gates inflation
6. August 2021
USA: A strong labour market report will be followed by an even stronger report in August and September adding upward pressure on wages
Germany: The economy shows classic late-cycle symptoms although the recovery has just started. Do not expect help from container shipping lines in 2021
5. August 2021
France: There are absolutely no signs of improvement in public sector finances despite a recovering economy
Germany: Industrial orders inflated by 'big items'. The problem is not the demand side but bottlenecks in the global supply chain
Brazil raises policy rates by 100 basis points. More in the pipeline as the independent central bank, BCB, provides lessons to 'old' central banks in the developed world
4. August 2021
USA: Service sentiment jumps to a new all-time high, while inflation pressure increases to the highest since 2005
Euro-zone: Retail sales report shows strong consumer spending in June, but households will soon see headwinds in Q3 from broad-based inflation pressure
3. August 2021
Euro-zone: Producer price inflation hits the highest level since the early 1990s. No signs of 'transitory' as the supply side has yet to respond to stronger 'transitory demand'
Turkey is 'cornered' with no emergency exits
2. August 2021
USA: The manufacturing ISM index fell in July, as companies are 'short of everything'. The 'solution' is apparently more stimulus measures
Sweden: PMI survey shows inflation pressure increasing to a new all-time high as central banks underestimate the time lag of monetary decisions. Container rates 'out of China' jump by 11% in July
China: Beijing facing several out-of-control headwinds makes a corporate-hostile policy misplaced - or the 'wrong timing'
30. July 2021
US personal income and consumption report shows elevated inflation pressure but not enough to worry the Federal Reserve, at least not yet
Euro-zone Q2 growth propelled higher by countries in the periphery despite a slow rebound in tourism
France: The economy shows only a muted rebound in Q2 after flat growth in Q1. Real purchasing power erosion poses a bigger short-term threat than the delta-variants
29. July 2021
USA: Q2 GDP report disappoints, not least due to a record-high GDP deflator. More 'transitory' inflation is in the pipeline. Is stagflation around the corner?
EU Commission survey: Soaring household inflation expectations hit the highest level since 2012, as ECB policy turns 'demand destructive'
France: Factory-gate inflation continues gaining momentum sponsored by a European Central Bank increasingly out of touch with the reality on the ground
28. July 2021
France: The 'net effect' of aggressive global stimulus measures are slowly creating headwinds to households - Insee
Today, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will, once again, be forced to admit that he was wrong. Richmond Fed's 'prices paid' index skyrockets in July
27. July 2021
USA: The Conference Board consumer survey shows significant inflation pressure but not necessarily 'demand destructive' - at least not yet
USA: The corporate spending recovery is still intact, but it has, so far, been a disappointment considering excessively loose monetary policy
South Korea: Strong Q2 growth makes leeway for the Bank of Korea to raise policy rates in August
China's corporate sector sees plenty of headwinds. Now, the education sector feels the heat from Beijing. Even Stephen Roach warns about the direction of Beijing
26. July 2021
USA: New home sales report shows more signs that the Federal Reserve is slowly turning into the main sponsor of headwinds to the economy
Germany: IFO survey underscores the ECB's policy mistake by focusing on the demand side. Bottlenecks in the supply chain are the main problem, according to IFO
23. July 2021
Soon, the margin squeeze in the manufacturing sector could also hit the service sector sponsored by irresponsible central banks out of touch with economic reality
22. July 2021
USA: Existing home prices continued to increase rapidly in June, but house price inflation has peaked
France: Business sentiment continues to improve, as demand is no longer a problem. 'Supply difficulties' skyrocket to the highest since 2000
Perversely, at the same time ECB's Lagarde considers new stimulus measures, the Dutch unemployment rate approaches an all-time low and home prices an all-time high
21. July 2021
Britain is walking a delicate balancing act as higher inflation reduces the room for maneuvring
The 'Australian case' is a warning to Europe and the United States to prepare for 'winter is coming'
20. July 2021
Taiwan and South Korea continue to benefit from a 'cutting corners policy' in the United States and Europe 
Germany: Producer price inflation hits the highest level since January 1982. Core inflation also hits a new record high
Covid-update: Is 'winter coming' before 'summer has even started?'
19. July 2021
USA: Aggressive fiscal and monetary stimulus measures turn counterproductive. Households' inflation expectations jump, according to UoM consumer sentiment survey
16. July 2021
USA: Retail sales jump in June, as households see plenty of tailwinds, but inflation poses a problem unless wages are on the rise
The fundamental support for the US dollar is eroding rapidly
15. July 2021
USA: The regional Philadelphia Fed survey continues to show solid growth and inflation at an elevated level
China's economy shows robust growth in Q2, but officials warn about dark clouds on the horizon
14. July 2021
USA: The Federal Reserve ignoring soaring inflation as 'transitory' could be in for a significant surprise because the supply side stays put
Britain: Inflation continuing upward trend in June creates the foundation for monetary U-turn later in 2021
13. July 2021
USA: Inflation jumps beyond market expectations in June, as 'transitory' turns into 'transitory for longer'. Core inflation hits the highest level since 1991
USA: NFIB survey shows bottlenecks and 'inflation everywhere', but no signs of higher corporate spending
China: The June trade report shows a buoyant economy, but other factors may also be at play when it comes to strong imports
Global Chart Update
12. July 2021
Japan: A sharp increase in machinery orders shows the rebound is on track shortly before the general election - but this is not a strong recovery
China's RRR cut is more than just a 'technical move'. Beijing fears an abrupt growth slowdown. China in easing mode changes the situation
9. July 2021
Britain: Multiple bottlenecks and labour shortage rather than new Covid variants put a lid on growth
China: A benign inflation picture opens a welcome window of opportunity for monetary policymakers in Beijing at the right time
8. July 2021
Japan's Economy Watcher Survey shows a strong rebound in service sentiment, but the long-term outlook is weak. Japan's is a must-read case study for EU and US policymakers
Podcast interview with China expert Joergen Delman: The Party that was not meant to be
7. July 2021
Recommendation: Taking 'significantly reduced' profit on short US 30-year bond future
Germany: Industrial output also disappoints in May, as bottlenecks put a drag on growth. That said, the growth outlook remains robust
6. July 2021
USA: ISM service survey disappoints, but inflation pressure stays at the highest level since 2005
Spain: The economic rebound is on track, but fiscal support measures from Brussels hit the shores far too late
Germany: Notoriously volatile industrial orders drop in May, but the 2021 outlook remains strong
5. July 2021
Turkey: Consumer prices rose sharply in June. PPI inflation jumps to 43% year-on-year
China: Caixin service PMI index drops to the lowest level since April 2020. Didi becomes the latest target of Beijing
2. July 2021
US labour market report: There are plenty of job offers, but the labour force bounces back far too slowly
Euro-zone: Producer prices jump at the fastest pace since 1997. Inflation pressure will stay for longer as long as suppliers believe in the 'transitory narrative'
The Bank of Korea will soon start the global 'monetary reversal game' - although the process has already started in the United States
1. July 2021
USA: Manufacturing sentiment stays at an elevated level, but inflation pressure continues making a new record high
Japan: The Bank of Japan's Tankan survey shows improvement but at a much slower pace than in the United States and Europe
30. June 2021
USA: A significant mismatch between the supply and the demand sides in the labour market puts a lid on actual employment growth, according to the ADP Employment report
China: Port congestion, the resurgence of Covid19 in Guangdong and Beijing's 'intervention' in the commodity market put a drag on PMI surveys
29. June 2021
Germany: Benign consumer price inflation in June, but households' inflation expectations jump to the highest since 2011
EU survey: Euro-zone economic sentiment index hits the highest in 21 years. Industrial and consumer inflation expectations jump
Sweden: Economic sentiment jumps to a new record high - and the same applies to inflation pressure
France: Consumer confidence jumps to the highest since March 2020. Employment expectations skyrocket
25. June 2021
USA: PCE inflation moves higher as inflation pressure is broadening
Germany: Households turning significantly more upbeat about the economy will create very strong growth in Q3
24. June 2021
The inflation storyboard: The Federal Reserve decides the outcome of 'part one' and 'part two'
Germany: IFO survey shows economic acceleration. Inflation pressure is on the rise
France: The composite business sentiment index jumps to the highest since 2007. Inflation pressure hits the highest since 1990
23. June 2021
USA: Affordability puts a lid on new home sales in May adding upward pressure on the number of unsold homes
Podcast interview: What have central banks done to the business cycle? An interview with Professor Torben M Andersen, former chairman of the Danish government's advisory Covid19 group
22. June 2021
USA: Existing home sales remain buoyant and prices are skyrocketing
Britain: The CBI industrial order index increases to the highest since 1988 while inflation expectations jump to the highest in the last 40 years
Euro-zone: Soaring Dutch consumer confidence is more evidence of a strong Euro-zone rebound in the second half of 2021