15. July 2024
China needs a 'controlled' recession, but Beijing has failed to create the institutionalised framework. Beijing has a different priority list
12. July 2024
Does falling US inflation also mean significantly lower bond yields?
11. July 2024
Washington Meeting: Geopolitical tensions are escalating with significant economic consequences
10. July 2024
The path of interest rates in the US - and the impact on the Eurozone bond market
9. July 2024
Misunderstood fiscal discipline in Berlin: Germany's path to instability
8. July 2024
French Election: The operation succeeded - but it caused the pendulum to swing to the left
28. June 2024
Due to vacation, there will be no updates on July 1-5
27. June 2024
Germany stands out in the June EU business and consumer survey: One threat from Beijing and Olaf Scholz panics
China's window of opportunity: A second and last chance to save the relationship with the European Union?
25. June 2024
National Rally is poised for a major electoral victory. ECB will bear part of the credit risk for the election promises. What are the consequences of 'French nukes are for France'?
24. June 2024
Germany needs - and will be forced to accept - lenient fiscal rules to make Germany and the EU survive
21. June 2024
'Recovery' in the US manufacturing sector does not gain traction - but inflationary pressures accelerate. Trump and the risk of recession
20. June 2024
Germany's competitiveness faces significant erosion without action
18. June 2024
The 'centre holds,' but the Eurozone faces unprecedented economic problems from weak productivity and soaring labour costs
17. June 2024
China is in the midst of a balance sheet 'recession': Existing house prices drop at the fastest rate since 2011
14. June 2024
Political chaos in France: Marine Le Pen knows the path to power through the front door at the centre, but what happens when she stands in the corridor of power?
13. June 2024
Washington will be forced to address a spiralling federal debt - otherwise, the bond market will react accordingly
11. June 2024
USA: The NFIB sentiment survey shows no signs of a weakening labour market. Labour shortages will prevail throughout 2024
The game is over for the coalition in Berlin. Germany could soon be forced to call an early election - tomorrow might be too late
10. June 2024
A weaker EU at the worst possible time means a higher risk premium. Will Meloni save the EU? What is the outcome of Macron's Russian Roulette?
7. June 2024
Chinese trade figures still show signs of a weak domestic economy. The cost of 'de-risking' will be high for China and the EU
6. June 2024
ECB decides hawkish monetary easing because it has no other option
4. June 2024
What happens if the gap between the ISM and the real economy closes?
3. June 2024
The ECB's communication problem: Policy rate cut, service inflation, soaring budget deficits and labour shortages
31. May 2024
A Beijing that continues to kick the can down the road and a West that no longer follows Beijing's playbook will not create a self-propelled recovery in China
30. May 2024
Western secular challenges: Implications for bond markets, the yield curve and monetary policy
29. May 2024
The European Central Bank's main challenge is to increase unemployment
Podcast interview with Camilla Tenna Norup Sorensen: The EU's next major challenge - the strained relationship with 'Xi Jinping's China'
27. May 2024
IFO survey: The road to recovery will be a long and arduous process, requiring massive investments in new technology
24. May 2024
EU's secular problem - labour shortage - is highly evident in French business surveys
23. May 2024
Has the ECB promised too much? Yes, according to German wage statistics and due to a hostile geopolitical environment
21. May 2024
Why are commodity prices rising?
17. May 2024
Due to Whit Monday, there will be no update on May 20
Beijing reacts when the CPC is threatened. The real estate sector crisis requires action, but new measures are mostly kicking the can down the road
16. May 2024
Washington's focus on inflation and the federal budget deficit will soon become the EU's biggest problem as generosity fades
14. May 2024
USA: Demographics, 'significant de-risking', and military build-up will amplify inflationary pressures in the coming quarters and years
British labour market report underscores European central banks' lack of room for manoeuvre
13. May 2024
'Xi Jinping's China' is becoming more visible on the horizon in the West. This gives rise to concern in the EU
8. May 2024
Due to Ascension Day, there will be no update on May 9 and May 10
7. May 2024
Germany's many obstacles: Fifth-column activities, Scholz and Christian Lindner stand in the way of voters who support change
6. May 2024
A short note on the US employment report and the ISM surveys: A paradigm shift
The EU faces crucial days and months. The first test is the Xi Jinping visit. The next test: Ukraine's vulnerable eastern front?
3. May 2024
The US labour market will continue to hit its ceiling without massive increases in productivity
2. May 2024
Japan is a 'currency manipulator' - but no one has an interest in telling Tokyo [corrected]
1. May 2024
Western central banks face a reality check. Wage inflation will not go away without higher unemployment - but this requires significant tightening
30. April 2024
The EU Parliamentary election could prove to be fateful. It will reveal whether a strong centre has the support of the voters
29. April 2024
The Eurozone economy has stalled
The likelihood of 'significant EU de-risking' away from China is increasing
26. April 2024
The ECB would have already cut policy rates multiple times if these were 'normal times'. It is not!
The Bank of Japan continues to speak with a forked tongue. This cannot go unpunished for the yen as the US Federal Reserve may not be able to lower interest rates
24. April 2024
Podcast interview with Jacob Kaarsbo: ENGLISH transcript - Ukraine, Iran, China, Russia, Donald Trump and what awaits the EU countries in the coming time
Germany: The IFO survey continues to show improvement - but the risk of 'profound de-risking' away from China is on the rise
22. April 2024
A dynamic geopolitical situation could sooner rather than later force the EU to address more aggressively its dependency on China
18. April 2024
US Philadelphia Fed survey: A new inflation leg is underway in the manufacturing sector
The aftermath of Scholz's kowtow: Beijing has a problem if the EU proves to have a backbone - and so will many European companies in China
16. April 2024
China: 'Impressive' growth number in Q1 if you are wearing blinkers
15. April 2024
The missile attack wiped the slate clean for Netanyahu and opened a window of opportunity to target Iran's nuclear weapons program
12. April 2024
The underlying details in China's trade statistics continue to show domestic weakness. Scholz headed for another kowtow in Beijing
Podcast interview with USA expert Niels Bjerre-Poulsen: What happens if Trump becomes the next president of the United States?
11. April 2024
Deflationary tendencies bring up the 'bazooka talk' again, but Beijing has a completely different agenda
10. April 2024
USA: The Federal Reserve's job is far from done. Reducing service price inflation is difficult without a significant increase in unemployment
9. April 2024
The Bank of Japan is playing with fire: Households are seeing stronger wage increases and higher inflation
5. April 2024
Another strong US labour market report will not give 'inevitable' policy rate cuts a particularly warm reception in the long end of the bond market
If Ukraine falls, public sector expenditure in EU member states will rise rapidly in a world with many constraints
4. April 2024
The US Federal Reserve now has a complete picture - but pointing in all directions
3. April 2024
The ECB only has the option for symbolic policy rate cuts. Real bond yields will rise, and productivity needs to increase [includes two extra charts]
2. April 2024
Japan's service sentiment increases to the highest since 1991. Higher JGB yields will trigger rising bond yields in the USA and Eurozone
Are the many 'Acts' in the USA finally creating a new growth leg in the manufacturing sector?
27. March 2024
Due to Easter, there will be no update from March 28 to April 1 - both days included
China's problem is that the EU intends to reduce dependence on a no longer trusted Beijing
26. March 2024
Sweden is in a strong position to enjoy the benefit of a changed geopolitical situation with friend-shoring and higher defence spending
25. March 2024
European defence stocks speak their own language, but politicians are chasing the train
22. March 2024
The German IFO survey is nothing more than a dead cat bounce. German politics has become pure chaos with no solution to huge problems
21. March 2024
The European Central Bank's room for monetary easing is limited, even though a rate cut in June is highly likely
The Reuters Tankan survey signals an accelerating Japanese economy. Buy the yen
20. March 2024
Podcast interview: ENGLISH transcript - President of the EU Chamber in China - Reciprocity in the China-EU relationship without dialogue increases the risk of a serious clash
19. March 2024
China's economic problems are now so significant that the 'Emperor' must visit the EU
18. March 2024
The Bank of Japan does not need to say many wrong words to create an avalanche. The global consequences could be significant
15. March 2024
Chinese house price index declines to 2018 low. TikTok is part of an intensifying economic conflict with the West
14. March 2024
A short note on demographics, monetary policy, immigration and productivity
12. March 2024
There will be no updates on March 13
US CPI inflation progress will be slow without a significant increase in unemployment. NFIB indicates this is in the pipeline - maybe
There is a good reason to fasten the seatbelt if Trump carries out just half his threats
8. March 2024
German economy moves deeper into the abyss due to a lack of constructive political action. Industrial orders hit the lowest since 2010
Podcast interview: ENGLISH transcript - What happens in Europe if the USA leaves NATO? Interview with Sten Rynning, director of the Danish Institute for Advanced Study
7. March 2024
China's trade report is yet another reminder of an impending trade war
6. March 2024
Weaker US growth in 2024 will pave the way for 'the least bad president,' whom no one truly desires
5. March 2024
A short note on the Two Sessions Meeting in Beijing: There is little focus on the economy but much on a massive military buildup. Putin created a big mess for Beijing
4. March 2024
French budget deficit highlights the challenges facing the Eurozone. The four largest Eurozone members illustrate the problem for the ECB
1. March 2024
The ECB is set to disappoint the bond market beyond a 'pseudo-policy-rate cut' - unless unemployment increases significantly
China's economy is apparently so weak that a concerned Beijing will do everything possible to avoid a corporate exodus from China
29. February 2024
German statistics paint a dire picture. The positive aspect is that most voters support dramatic changes - including massive rearmament
28. February 2024
The EU Commission survey still highlights why the ECB does not have much room to manoeuvre
27. February 2024
The Eurozone shows marginal signs of improvement. EU leaders face unpopular decisions - a discussion started by the Danish Prime Minister
There is much talk about the EU's window of opportunity - but one should focus on Russia's 'best choice'. Poland talks about nuclear option
23. February 2024
IFO survey indicates a deeper German recession - and with it comes an inevitable trade war with China
Chinese house prices continue to fall. How does one filter 'misinformation'?
22. February 2024
The economic situation in Germany is now so bad that it's time to say goodbye to nostalgia. 'Goodbye SchuldenBremse'
20. February 2024
A short follow-up to the Eurozone wage statistics for Q4
The economic downturn in China's property market is too severe to pursue ideological politics at the moment
19. February 2024
The primary task of the ECB is to create space for the defence industry. The consequence is lower private consumption - and higher real bond yields
16. February 2024
The EU Commission is now paving the way for massive military rearmament. The Weimar Triangle opens up for a European military alliance with Britain without any 'stumbling blocks'
15. February 2024
The US labour market will continue to bump against the ceiling in 2024
What drives the Japanese stock market? There are many factors, but the primary explanation remains the same
13. February 2024
The current level of US unemployment and fiscal policy 'out of control' do not support a policy of rate cuts
Western Europe is heading towards a semi-war economy now that politicians understand the gravity of the geopolitical situation. Tight labour markets
12. February 2024
China's monetary statistics show no signs of an accelerating economy. 'Japanificantion' continues unabatedly
9. February 2024
Podcast interview [English subtitles included] with former Danish Military Attache in China: Have we also misjudged China? [English and Danish]
8. February 2024
USA: Two-thirds of the US federal deficit is now interest payments. The next administration will be forced to act forcefully to the disadvantage of the EU
7. February 2024
The industrial downturn continues in Germany. Policy change in Berlin is needed. ECB's room of maneuvring is limited
6. February 2024
A brief note on the Chinese bazooka, which does not exist. Xi Jinping's credibility is at stake
5. February 2024
The US ISM survey confirms Friday's strong labour market report and increases the likelihood of a new inflation leg
Could Germany call a national election in 2024? Yes, the coalition government in Berlin is no longer working
Turkey must now pay the price for Erdogan's failed economic policy. The cleanup is left to others
2. February 2024
What to expect from the US labour market in a world facing the worst geopolitical and demographic challenges since the Second World War
1. February 2024
Eurozone: To keep inflation down requires a completely different political approach. There is no room for political fumbling
31. January 2024
Beijing now has two options
30. January 2024
The Eurozone economy is weak - but not enough to pave the way for significant policy rate cuts
Podcast interview [plus VIDEO] with AI expert: Could Artificial Intelligence turn out to be the panacea to the EU's problems? [English and Danish]
26. January 2024
ECB's Lagarde talks about policy rate cuts - but the room of maneuvring is limited
25. January 2024
Strikes and Berlin in disarray are reflected in yet another weak IFO survey, indicating a deeper recession in 2024
Beijing's dilemma: More of the same that created the current problems or real economic reforms 'without Chinese characteristics'?
23. January 2024
There will not be any updates on January 23 and 24 due to a business trip
22. January 2024
Social and political chaos in Germany should not be a surprise. More is in the pipeline
USA: The University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey once again shows the difference between today and 2008-2010
19. January 2024
Is artificial intelligence a panacea for the EU? Yes, to a large extent, provided politicians do not create obstacles
16. January 2024
'Virtual China visit' - January 29 or 31 - Michael R. Chang, GM Yara Marine Technologies, Shanghai: Is China changing in the wrong direction? Register Now - 'First come, first served'
EU and Britain: Artificial Intelligence provides an excellent possibility to reduce headwinds from geopolitics and demographics if the politicians do not create obstacles
PBOC appears to be boosting liquidity - but it is not being utilised
12. January 2024
China's problems could soon belong to the EU unless Brussels acts. Why doesn't Beijing protect the main route to Europe?
11. January 2024
This time, Donald Trump will do it the 'right' way. What does that mean?
9. January 2024
Eurozone: Low growth no longer necessarily means higher unemployment. This will have significant consequences for monetary policy
The consequences of the erosion of free speech and information flow in China
8. January 2024
The EU business and consumer survey underscores why the ECB faces a different environment than in 2008-2010
A short note about an unusually sharp decline in the employment index in the ISM service survey
5. January 2024
USA: The labour market report does not give the Federal Reserve reason to change its strategy - but should instead lead the bond market to temper its optimism
Eurozone: Demographic changes mitigate the economic downturn but will create huge fundamental problems in the next phase
3. January 2024
Germany: More consequences loom after decades of misguided foreign and industrial policy. Many companies behave as though we are still in a sweet spot. Next problem - Iran
2. January 2024
The new geopolitical reality: Massive military build-up, renewed pressure on tight labour markets, higher fiscal deficits - and China forced to go out 'on thin ice'
18. December 2023
There will be no updates from December 20 to January 1, 2024, due to the holiday period
German IFO survey indicates a deeper recession. New elections becoming more likely. CDU-CSU is larger than the current coalition combined - poll
15. December 2023
Chinese economic statistics show no signs of relief, as Beijing seems bewildered about what to do. Second-hand house prices drop at the fastest annual rate since 2015
14. December 2023
The Federal Reserve projects what the financial market already projected before the FOMC meeting - but central banks' freedom of maneuvering is no longer the same as before
12. December 2023
USA: Service price inflation is falling far too slowly. NFIB survey indicates a sharp re-acceleration in wage pressure in the first half of 2024
What If? - including audio-video
11. December 2023
A short note on Eurozone unit labour costs statistics: ECB needs positive productivity growth or significantly higher unemployment
Chinese disinflation would have been worse without Beijing kicking the can down the road. Turkey targets Chinese EVs
8. December 2023
USA: Unemployment will increase in 2024 but at a painfully slower pace than in the past
Why European politicians' perception and the 'closing window of opportunity' matter for the bond market in 2024
Podcast interview with Jacob Funk Kirkegaard, PIIE and German Marshall Fund: What kind of Washington are we facing in the coming years?
7. December 2023
China's trade balance report highlights the extent to which Beijing needs the EU - and vice versa
5. December 2023
USA: ISM service survey shows no signs of recession. The Federal Reserve needs higher unemployment or significantly lower inflation to cut policy rates
Faltering support for Ukraine will be costly for EU countries in 2024 and beyond. Poland reiterates the warning from the German Council on Foreign Relations
4. December 2023
A short note on the bond market rally
1. December 2023
US ISM survey: The Federal Reserve will start a slow process of policy rate cuts when unemployment increases 'more significantly'
30. November 2023
Eurozone inflation: The low-hanging fruits are gone. Now, energy prices (just) need to remain stable, and unemployment needs to rise
A weak Chinese economy makes the outcome of the upcoming EU-China summit even more interesting
29. November 2023
EU Commission survey continues to show a very tight Eurozone labour market - but falling inflation expectations
28. November 2023
Eurozone: The French Insee consumer survey reflects the complexity of the Eurozone's many headwinds. AfD and BSW hit a combined 31% in today's German opinion poll
27. November 2023
China's capital balance data underscore the extent of foreign companies' mistrust in Beijing, regardless of recent attempts of moderation
24. November 2023
Chaos in Berlin and the Dutch election do not bode well for the EU-China summit. The air is being let out of von der Leyen's balloon
Podcast interview with Anders Overvad, Think Tank Europa: De-risking is an existential necessity for the European Union [language: Danish]
23. November 2023
The EU's 'political centre' has only one shot left. What does a strong shift to the right mean for the financial market?
20. November 2023
Eurozone: Falling inflation does not change the storyboard. Factory gate prices are still up by 40% since 2019 - and de-risking is coming
17. November 2023
EU Commission: De-risking from China or face trouble
15. November 2023
The Xi-Biden meeting is paramount, but less so than the interpretation of 'true intentions' in Washington and Beijing
14. November 2023
What keeps the US economy going - and what does it mean for 2024? Unfortunately, even more concerns
13. November 2023
Different forecasts for the Eurozone are based on fundamentally different geopolitical scenarios
9. November 2023
De-risking is deflationary in China and inflationary in the EU, but Brussels maintains a hawkish stance towards Beijing
7. November 2023
The European Union faces an 'auto tsunami' from China. Will Brussels act? Yes, but not due to corporate interests in Europe
The two pillars of the Insightview storyboard remain valid for the Eurozone - Headwinds from geopolitics and demographics
3. November 2023
What is the impact of 'high policy rates for longer' when investors believe central banks are wrong?
1. November 2023
The Federal Reserve needs a significant increase in unemployment to change policy. The federal debt maturity structure does not look good
Beijing considers a 'more friendly' approach to the private sector - forced by economic reality. But for how long? India raises the level of trade tensions with Beijing
30. October 2023
No Updates on Oct. 30-31 - Business Trip
27. October 2023
French economic statistics show why the European economy is amidst an entirely different situation than in the past
A short note on the rising risk of a trade war between the EU and China
26. October 2023
Sweden's NIER survey reflects what the ECB is facing - but also raises questions about monetary policymakers' credibility
25. October 2023
Germany's road to recovery will be bumpy but necessary. Soon, Brussels is expected to provide 'help'
24. October 2023
Germany: Consumer sentiment declines. The political centre is 'under siege' by AfD, and now a new party on the far-left
23. October 2023
China's excess capacity challenge: Has the 'mother of all global dumping' just started?
20. October 2023
The growing concerns about China - and why the European Union finally sees the writing on the wall
A brief summary in English of opinions expressed by Klaus Anker Petersen in yesterday's podcast interview about China
19. October 2023
Are US Treasuries a screaming buy?
Podcast interview with Klaus Anker Petersen: China remains lucrative for European companies - but it has become a more difficult market [Language: Danish]
18. October 2023
Deciphering China's economic growth and Xi Jinping's vision. Beijing has not demonstrated maturity in its new role as a global superpower
17. October 2023
Strengthening Europe's defence - bypassing the EU's bureaucratic interference
16. October 2023
Navigating turbulent times: The impact on consumer sentiment and monetary policy
13. October 2023
Beijing is 'supposed' to react more forcefully to economic headwinds - but Xi Jinping has a different agenda
12. October 2023
USA inflation: The same monetary tightening as in 2004-2006 but with a different outcome due to a fundamentally different environment
11. October 2023
USA: Inflationary pressure will rise without a significant increase in unemployment
Beijing plans to launch a 'symbolic growth package' - but households let down again
10. October 2023
US NFIB survey: Despite significant monetary tightening, labour shortages are prevailing. Loan availability is declining
A brief summary in English of opinions expressed by Camilla T.N. Sorensen in yesterday's podcast interview about Hama's terror attack in Israel
9. October 2023
Podcast interview: The Middle East is a powder keg that could explode anytime. Is it really in the interest of the Chinese and Americans? [language: Danish]
Israel's 'September 11': The Middle East powder keg could ignite any moment. Hamas terrorist attack will cast global immigration in an even less favourable light
6. October 2023
An analysis of the future yield curve and bond yields based on three assumptions
5. October 2023
Germany at a dangerous crossroads: The window of opportunity for Berlin could close rapidly. Several headwinds are now hitting the economy
4. October 2023
A follow-up chart: US corporate debt, higher interest rates and falling corporate net-interest payments
3. October 2023
Yield curve steepening: There is no room for political missteps in the bond markets
