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Public
21. May 2024
Why are commodity prices rising?
17. May 2024
Due to Whit Monday, there will be no update on May 20
Beijing reacts when the CPC is threatened. The real estate sector crisis requires action, but new measures are mostly kicking the can down the road
16. May 2024
Washington's focus on inflation and the federal budget deficit will soon become the EU's biggest problem as generosity fades
14. May 2024
USA: Demographics, 'significant de-risking', and military build-up will amplify inflationary pressures in the coming quarters and years
British labour market report underscores European central banks' lack of room for manoeuvre
13. May 2024
'Xi Jinping's China' is becoming more visible on the horizon in the West. This gives rise to concern in the EU
8. May 2024
Due to Ascension Day, there will be no update on May 9 and May 10
7. May 2024
Germany's many obstacles: Fifth-column activities, Scholz and Christian Lindner stand in the way of voters who support change
6. May 2024
A short note on the US employment report and the ISM surveys: A paradigm shift
The EU faces crucial days and months. The first test is the Xi Jinping visit. The next test: Ukraine's vulnerable eastern front?
3. May 2024
The US labour market will continue to hit its ceiling without massive increases in productivity
2. May 2024
Japan is a 'currency manipulator' - but no one has an interest in telling Tokyo [corrected]
1. May 2024
Western central banks face a reality check. Wage inflation will not go away without higher unemployment - but this requires significant tightening
30. April 2024
The EU Parliamentary election could prove to be fateful. It will reveal whether a strong centre has the support of the voters
29. April 2024
The Eurozone economy has stalled
The likelihood of 'significant EU de-risking' away from China is increasing
26. April 2024
The ECB would have already cut policy rates multiple times if these were 'normal times'. It is not!
The Bank of Japan continues to speak with a forked tongue. This cannot go unpunished for the yen as the US Federal Reserve may not be able to lower interest rates
24. April 2024
Podcast interview with Jacob Kaarsbo: ENGLISH transcript - Ukraine, Iran, China, Russia, Donald Trump and what awaits the EU countries in the coming time
Germany: The IFO survey continues to show improvement - but the risk of 'profound de-risking' away from China is on the rise
22. April 2024
A dynamic geopolitical situation could sooner rather than later force the EU to address more aggressively its dependency on China
18. April 2024
US Philadelphia Fed survey: A new inflation leg is underway in the manufacturing sector
The aftermath of Scholz's kowtow: Beijing has a problem if the EU proves to have a backbone - and so will many European companies in China
16. April 2024
China: 'Impressive' growth number in Q1 if you are wearing blinkers
15. April 2024
The missile attack wiped the slate clean for Netanyahu and opened a window of opportunity to target Iran's nuclear weapons program
12. April 2024
The underlying details in China's trade statistics continue to show domestic weakness. Scholz headed for another kowtow in Beijing
Podcast interview with USA expert Niels Bjerre-Poulsen: What happens if Trump becomes the next president of the United States?
11. April 2024
Deflationary tendencies bring up the 'bazooka talk' again, but Beijing has a completely different agenda
10. April 2024
USA: The Federal Reserve's job is far from done. Reducing service price inflation is difficult without a significant increase in unemployment
9. April 2024
The Bank of Japan is playing with fire: Households are seeing stronger wage increases and higher inflation
5. April 2024
Another strong US labour market report will not give 'inevitable' policy rate cuts a particularly warm reception in the long end of the bond market
If Ukraine falls, public sector expenditure in EU member states will rise rapidly in a world with many constraints
4. April 2024
The US Federal Reserve now has a complete picture - but pointing in all directions
3. April 2024
The ECB only has the option for symbolic policy rate cuts. Real bond yields will rise, and productivity needs to increase [includes two extra charts]
2. April 2024
Japan's service sentiment increases to the highest since 1991. Higher JGB yields will trigger rising bond yields in the USA and Eurozone
Are the many 'Acts' in the USA finally creating a new growth leg in the manufacturing sector?
27. March 2024
Due to Easter, there will be no update from March 28 to April 1 - both days included
China's problem is that the EU intends to reduce dependence on a no longer trusted Beijing
26. March 2024
Sweden is in a strong position to enjoy the benefit of a changed geopolitical situation with friend-shoring and higher defence spending
25. March 2024
European defence stocks speak their own language, but politicians are chasing the train
22. March 2024
The German IFO survey is nothing more than a dead cat bounce. German politics has become pure chaos with no solution to huge problems
21. March 2024
The European Central Bank's room for monetary easing is limited, even though a rate cut in June is highly likely
The Reuters Tankan survey signals an accelerating Japanese economy. Buy the yen
20. March 2024
Podcast interview: ENGLISH transcript - President of the EU Chamber in China - Reciprocity in the China-EU relationship without dialogue increases the risk of a serious clash
19. March 2024
China's economic problems are now so significant that the 'Emperor' must visit the EU
18. March 2024
The Bank of Japan does not need to say many wrong words to create an avalanche. The global consequences could be significant
15. March 2024
Chinese house price index declines to 2018 low. TikTok is part of an intensifying economic conflict with the West
14. March 2024
A short note on demographics, monetary policy, immigration and productivity
12. March 2024
There will be no updates on March 13
US CPI inflation progress will be slow without a significant increase in unemployment. NFIB indicates this is in the pipeline - maybe
There is a good reason to fasten the seatbelt if Trump carries out just half his threats
8. March 2024
German economy moves deeper into the abyss due to a lack of constructive political action. Industrial orders hit the lowest since 2010
Podcast interview: ENGLISH transcript - What happens in Europe if the USA leaves NATO? Interview with Sten Rynning, director of the Danish Institute for Advanced Study
7. March 2024
China's trade report is yet another reminder of an impending trade war
6. March 2024
Weaker US growth in 2024 will pave the way for 'the least bad president,' whom no one truly desires
5. March 2024
A short note on the Two Sessions Meeting in Beijing: There is little focus on the economy but much on a massive military buildup. Putin created a big mess for Beijing
4. March 2024
French budget deficit highlights the challenges facing the Eurozone. The four largest Eurozone members illustrate the problem for the ECB
1. March 2024
The ECB is set to disappoint the bond market beyond a 'pseudo-policy-rate cut' - unless unemployment increases significantly
China's economy is apparently so weak that a concerned Beijing will do everything possible to avoid a corporate exodus from China
29. February 2024
German statistics paint a dire picture. The positive aspect is that most voters support dramatic changes - including massive rearmament
28. February 2024
The EU Commission survey still highlights why the ECB does not have much room to manoeuvre
27. February 2024
The Eurozone shows marginal signs of improvement. EU leaders face unpopular decisions - a discussion started by the Danish Prime Minister
There is much talk about the EU's window of opportunity - but one should focus on Russia's 'best choice'. Poland talks about nuclear option
23. February 2024
IFO survey indicates a deeper German recession - and with it comes an inevitable trade war with China
Chinese house prices continue to fall. How does one filter 'misinformation'?
22. February 2024
The economic situation in Germany is now so bad that it's time to say goodbye to nostalgia. 'Goodbye SchuldenBremse'
20. February 2024
A short follow-up to the Eurozone wage statistics for Q4
The economic downturn in China's property market is too severe to pursue ideological politics at the moment
19. February 2024
The primary task of the ECB is to create space for the defence industry. The consequence is lower private consumption - and higher real bond yields
16. February 2024
The EU Commission is now paving the way for massive military rearmament. The Weimar Triangle opens up for a European military alliance with Britain without any 'stumbling blocks'
15. February 2024
The US labour market will continue to bump against the ceiling in 2024
What drives the Japanese stock market? There are many factors, but the primary explanation remains the same
13. February 2024
The current level of US unemployment and fiscal policy 'out of control' do not support a policy of rate cuts
Western Europe is heading towards a semi-war economy now that politicians understand the gravity of the geopolitical situation. Tight labour markets
12. February 2024
China's monetary statistics show no signs of an accelerating economy. 'Japanificantion' continues unabatedly
9. February 2024
Podcast interview [English subtitles included] with former Danish Military Attache in China: Have we also misjudged China? [English and Danish]
8. February 2024
USA: Two-thirds of the US federal deficit is now interest payments. The next administration will be forced to act forcefully to the disadvantage of the EU
7. February 2024
The industrial downturn continues in Germany. Policy change in Berlin is needed. ECB's room of maneuvring is limited
6. February 2024
A brief note on the Chinese bazooka, which does not exist. Xi Jinping's credibility is at stake
5. February 2024
The US ISM survey confirms Friday's strong labour market report and increases the likelihood of a new inflation leg
Could Germany call a national election in 2024? Yes, the coalition government in Berlin is no longer working
Turkey must now pay the price for Erdogan's failed economic policy. The cleanup is left to others
2. February 2024
What to expect from the US labour market in a world facing the worst geopolitical and demographic challenges since the Second World War
1. February 2024
Eurozone: To keep inflation down requires a completely different political approach. There is no room for political fumbling
31. January 2024
Beijing now has two options
30. January 2024
The Eurozone economy is weak - but not enough to pave the way for significant policy rate cuts
Podcast interview [plus VIDEO] with AI expert: Could Artificial Intelligence turn out to be the panacea to the EU's problems? [English and Danish]
26. January 2024
ECB's Lagarde talks about policy rate cuts - but the room of maneuvring is limited
25. January 2024
Strikes and Berlin in disarray are reflected in yet another weak IFO survey, indicating a deeper recession in 2024
Beijing's dilemma: More of the same that created the current problems or real economic reforms 'without Chinese characteristics'?
23. January 2024
There will not be any updates on January 23 and 24 due to a business trip
22. January 2024
Social and political chaos in Germany should not be a surprise. More is in the pipeline
USA: The University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey once again shows the difference between today and 2008-2010
19. January 2024
Is artificial intelligence a panacea for the EU? Yes, to a large extent, provided politicians do not create obstacles
16. January 2024
'Virtual China visit' - January 29 or 31 - Michael R. Chang, GM Yara Marine Technologies, Shanghai: Is China changing in the wrong direction? Register Now - 'First come, first served'
EU and Britain: Artificial Intelligence provides an excellent possibility to reduce headwinds from geopolitics and demographics if the politicians do not create obstacles
PBOC appears to be boosting liquidity - but it is not being utilised
12. January 2024
China's problems could soon belong to the EU unless Brussels acts. Why doesn't Beijing protect the main route to Europe?
11. January 2024
This time, Donald Trump will do it the 'right' way. What does that mean?